40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The tenor of the season marches on. 2-4" or 3-5" of mixed frozen. Then a bit of warmth and rain. So we wait Exactly what it is. I'd rather it just rain, personally....I'm done with that ugly nuisance at this stage, but it is what it is. Hope for a real event at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Now that I'm home, I see what Steve meant about the euro having more or less simply weaker dynamics, as opposed to being significantly warmer. Its actually snowier in n CT, but less robust to the north owed to more meager dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 yeah, I guess I'm getting more confident on a solution west of New England with that primary ... if for no other reason, the models just won't give up and give into the notion that with a flatter ridge in the west, the whole structure should be more stretched and progressive (go figure)... So be it.. However, whatever contention remains is the timing of warm penetration if at all, on this far eastern flank where the polar high in Ontario, combined with our unique topographical features will pressure +PP into the lower levels and CAD down toward NYC - Once an air mass gets 'tucked' east of the mountains and clings to the landmass in there, no models will fully resolve the 'Ekman boundary' and that is why the warm air always is late compared to modeling. At least I've never seen it on time or early when there is actual high pressure back building CAD ... exerting fresh mass into said lower levels. Not going to happen. So assessing some belated arrival will occur, how much... Then you got to get into when P-types flip around and if there is a protracted icing or just 32.7 F pitter patters. Caveat: if the high between now and 90 hours corrects faster and or substantially weaker in the models, I have less issue with warmth making inroads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is def the most aggressive of all guidance in winding up the primary low out in the midwest. And yet it still has a little cold tuck and sfc low reflection Wed morning for eastern areas. I like the single digits around IZG with above freezing 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Pretty meh run verbatim on the 18z GFS. Not much in. The way of winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 21z SREFs were further west with the precip shield regarding the Super Bowl Sunday/Monday system that appears out to sea right now. I think the models are still iffy on the details of the system. Cape Cod could still get clipped by some snow Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 21z SREFs were further west with the precip shield regarding the Super Bowl Sunday/Monday system that appears out to sea right now. I think the models are still iffy on the details of the system. Cape Cod could still get clipped by some snow Monday morning. The GFS is hundreds of miles offshore with the precip. The only shot at seeing Anything at all would be from the system passing to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 25 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 21z SREFs were further west with the precip shield regarding the Super Bowl Sunday/Monday system that appears out to sea right now. I think the models are still iffy on the details of the system. Cape Cod could still get clipped by some snow Monday morning. Time to fire up a thread for the waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 The never ending meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I'm sure model runs are going to go back and forth , hopefully trends colder, but the way we have been going......just s_cks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 29 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: The never ending meh. No kidding...such a mind numbingly boring way to have a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: No kidding...such a mind numbingly boring way to have a winter Still payin for 2015. Some places were over 300% of normal that year. If it doesn't snow next year either those places may still be edging above normal for the four yrs combined. And by those places we mean most of us, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still payin for 2015. Some places were over 300% of normal that year. If it doesn't snow next year either those places may still be edging above normal for the four yrs combined. And by those places we mean most of us, too The next 30 year normal reset will be 2021. The average snow 1991-2020 includes some whopper years-multiple ones. 1/3'of those years had 80+ at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: The next 30 year normal reset will be 2021. The average snow 1991-2020 includes some whopper years-multiple ones. 1/3'of those years had 80+ at BOS. Of course that we're just speaking symbolically. If there's any worthwhile point to that it's that nobody should be complaining ha It could snow 10,000% for five years and then not snow again for 500 years and end up somewhere around average - doesn't mean diddly squat in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 At 84 hr... the primary is pretty far NW of 18z on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 To be clear I don't think anyone is entitled to more than their 130 year average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Still payin for 2015. Some places were over 300% of normal that year. If it doesn't snow next year either those places may still be edging above normal for the four yrs combined. And by those places we mean most of us, tooThis. My guess is this season claws it's way close to normal for most(75-100%) but due to its paltry events and frequent washouts, will be placed in the dung heap as a hideous winter. Even the the folks who were lucky to see a large(10"+) snowfall, will have forgotten it by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still payin for 2015. Some places were over 300% of normal that year. If it doesn't snow next year either those places may still be edging above normal for the four yrs combined. And by those places we mean most of us, too My area doesn't have near the surplus that some others have..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still payin for 2015. Some places were over 300% of normal that year. If it doesn't snow next year either those places may still be edging above normal for the four yrs combined. And by those places we mean most of us, too You could also get (I suppose) back to back 2015's. At least 2011-2012 had Rocktober. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You could also get (I suppose) back to back 2015's. At least 2011-2012 had Rocktober. That event stunk here, too. Relative to the ambient environs.....I know some people are going to misinterpret this and rip my head off.....but in this respect I have been in a slump for several years. This year has certainly not reversed that- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Tell you what....I think the GFS snowfall algorthym is closer to reality than the EURO's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Tell you what....I think the GFS snowfall algorthym is closer to reality than the EURO's. Yeah not buying the euro this time around. Think it will trend unfavourably until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Just now, Hazey said: Yeah not buying the euro this time around. Think it will trend unfavourably until go time. We've seen this act before, and its tired. With a few exceptions, the tenor of a season is usually very discernible by the the start of Feb.....and this one stinks- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I mean look at the GFS, and look at the euro....which one embodies winter 2017? Anecdotal, perhaps....but not at all wanting for veracity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Through 300 hours.... the GFS is basically 101 ways to not snow in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 This winter has been so boring for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Through 300 hours.... the GFS is basically 101 ways to not snow in SNE At least the cold will be near by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 It's dead Jim im such a jinx that now that I said that watch the models trend colder and snowier starting tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least the cold will be near by. Close enough to feel the chill when it's dry.... but warm enough to rain when we get moisture. I won't melt because I'm not far from average.... but outside of a 3 day stretch in early jan... this winter has been incredibly forgettable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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