OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Uk looks like maybe a scraper with wave two...like the gfs but a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: not sure why cmc gets discussed as frequently as it does, its a garbage piece of guidance. with that said, thur is far from a lock in either direction. Would like to see the euro get on it today though otherwise its a long shot. I don't disagree that it is garbage... but if there is going to be something... you'd think it would at least have the system somewhere at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Wave two looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Wave 1 looks like the prototypical winter 2017 event, followed by close whiff......sequence that absolutely embodies this season. Hopefully the cycle breaks, but I'm highly skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I'll take the under on the GFS' 4" for this locale.....EURO looks more realistic at 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don't disagree that it is garbage... but if there is going to be something... you'd think it would at least have the system somewhere at this lead it kinda does just a crapped out mess. anyway, it does give the texas panhandle 36" of bedside love leading up to vday. An upcoming blue ball episode for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12Z GEFS still pretty robust for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: it kinda does just a crapped out mess. anyway, it does give the texas panhandle 36" of bedside love leading up to vday. An upcoming blue ball episode for them. Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: it kinda does just a crapped out mess. anyway, it does give the texas panhandle 36" of bedside love leading up to vday. An upcoming blue ball episode for them. Whatt?? Yea, that is suspect to say the last lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wave 1 looks like the prototypical winter 2017 event, followed by close whiff......sequence that absolutely embodies this season. Hopefully the cycle breaks, but I'm highly skeptical. I think the AO is a game changer this time. It should slow things down enough over the central CONUS to keep it from an ots solution. We also have an arctic airmass plunging in behind to help wrap this guy up and bend him back. The major caveat to me is Tuesday. We certainly don't want a sub 980 mb low in Quebec as per the 12z GFS. The Good news is as I said before is that run is all by itself right now, and likely wrong imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: 12Z GEFS still pretty robust for wave 2. Yeah they are. I'll be interested to see how the euro looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: 12Z GEFS still pretty robust for wave 2. Mean QPF of 0.5"+ is pretty impressive considering what everything else looks like right now. I'm often of the mindset that you take it one storm at a time, especially in this setup where the followup is going to depend at least somewhat on the track/strength of the initial system. I don't think we'll get a clear picture on this one until Tuesday most likely, but it's definitely got some upside as various runs have showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I think the AO is a game changer this time. It should slow things down enough over the central CONUS to keep it from an ots solution. We also have an arctic airmass plunging in behind to help wrap this guy up and bend him back. The major caveat to me is Tuesday. We certainly don't want a sub 980 mb low in Quebec as per the 12z GFS. The Good news is as I said before is that run is all by itself right now, and likely wrong imo. Fair point. I'll defer to your very good analysis for now because I haven't looked that closely...but I have been saying that nothing has really changed from earlier this season. The AO would in fact represent change, but that doesn't have to mean a good storm (I know you are aware of this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: Mean QPF of 0.5"+ is pretty impressive considering what everything else looks like right now. I'm often of the mindset that you take it one storm at a time, especially in this setup where the followup is going to depend at least somewhat on the track/strength of the initial system. I don't think we'll get a clear picture on this one until Tuesday most likely, but it's definitely got some upside as various runs have showed. That is a fairly strong signal from a smoothed out product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I think the AO is a game changer this time. It should slow things down enough over the central CONUS to keep it from an ots solution. We also have an arctic airmass plunging in behind to help wrap this guy up and bend him back. The major caveat to me is Tuesday. We certainly don't want a sub 980 mb low in Quebec as per the 12z GFS. The Good news is as I said before is that run is all by itself right now, and likely wrong imo. The only thing that needs to be watched is how quickly that ridge pushes east as troughing moves into the west coast. That still dictates how quickly this tries to graZe the northeast. You also have some energy diving into the plains from the vortex near Hudson Bay. If Tuesday's low is on the weaker side, it would help keep the baroclinic axis closer to the coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The only thing that needs to be watched is how quickly that ridge pushes east as troughing moves into the west coast. That still dictates how quickly this tries to graZe the northeast. You also have some energy diving into the plains from the vortex near Hudson Bay. If Tuesday's low is on the weaker side, it would help keep the baroclinic axis closer to the coast too. The latter has been treading in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 euro less amped at 48hr, should be better for thur i would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: euro less amped at 48hr, should be better for thur i would think. I'd look for a slower evolution out west, as well....perhaps even more importantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd look for a slower evolution out west, as well....perhaps even more importantly. yea true. its just hard to tell with tropicals euro freebie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: yea its just hard to tell with tropicals euro freebie maps. Too early....at least on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I cant only tell the thur wave is better organized and further north into OK at 12z wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Need to get to about hr 84-96...when the ridge flexes out west.....we want that ridge apex to trend a bit later/longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Still meh on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Graze ala GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The end result is decent for coast. a bit slower than gfs. point is it moved closer from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Graze ala GFS. Meh... was hoping for a bigger improvement than that.... about at the 4 day mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The end result is decent for coast. a bit slower than gfs. point is it moved closer from 0z. I don't agree. It's actually less impactful vs 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Graze ala GFS. The fact that the ensembles are more robust is more important than the day 4-5 op solution imo.....not to say that I think we get hit, but certainly would not discount it at this early juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 ridge is sharper than gfs, a good step in right direction imo. euro never just comes out of the closet on one run, it tends to slowly reveals itself...then the confetti drops and naked snow angels ensue with weenies gripped in hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 or it never reveals itself and shuts the closet door before we can get a peek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don't agree. It's actually less impactful vs 0z. Just going off TT maps on 24intervals so we will agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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