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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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The ECMWF op had the 850 line near southern wake...  but the ensembles varied in where it was.  
The ensemble had a big spread of precip for RDU from 0" to 6+"...and an equal chance of each scenario..  Fishel highlighted this on the 6pm news

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7 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns.

5db297c4-4b3d-49a0-8249-e0fdebf31fff.gif

I think I have a 7-9" bullseye right over my house! It's tiny and looks like the path our tornado took!?! Coincidence, I think not

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First 2 frame are the initialization frames for the ARPEGE and ICON. Last is the NAM. All 18z runs.  You can see how they have the northern jet further west and south than the NAM (and the GFS).  The models overall have been trending with this movement since yesterday.  This difference is forcing the s/w further southwest which changes the timing and gives it room to go neutral tilt by 60 hrs.  Icon goes full neg tilt by 72 hrs.

iyxTiNr.gif

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

First 2 frame are the initialization frames for the ARPEGE and ICON. Last is the NAM. All 18z runs.  You can see how they have the northern jet further west and south than the NAM (and the GFS).  The models overall have been trending with this movement since yesterday.  This difference is forcing the s/w further southwest which changes the timing and gives it room to go neutral tilt by 60 hrs.  Icon goes full neg tilt by 72 hrs.

iyxTiNr.gif

A Neutral Tilt would be amazing.  A boy can only hope.

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5 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

A Neutral Tilt would be amazing.  A boy can only hope.

Here's the ICON and NAM at 48 hrs.  This is the difference.

DE3KfvY.gif

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22 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns.

5db297c4-4b3d-49a0-8249-e0fdebf31fff.gif

This looks about right to me. Living in Bham, we usually get this dry slot where it goes above and below us. 

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2 hours ago, Lookout said:

well the 18z icon is pretty ridiculous

 PR_000-072_0000.gif

 

THATS ICONIC!!! :) 

(SORRY...couldn't resist! I will take the warning. Ha.) 

Hope all is well Man!

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3 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

are we starting to get to the point we want the NW trend to stop on the GFS?

Depends where you live. :D

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Does anyone know what the temps look like with those Eurozone models?  They're more amped and the precip is much more robust, but what about temps?

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

For some

I find the French model more right on this. NAM hasn't been doing a good job on this system at all and the French model has been preforming better. Looks like the ULL strength is the major factor in the polar jet digging south? Hard for me to to tell on height maps. 

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22 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns.

5db297c4-4b3d-49a0-8249-e0fdebf31fff.gif

Well I gotta say that the latest GFS, verbatim, would probably make just about everyone here happy (though I am sure there is some ice). But this is exactly why I have a hard time trusting that this has any chance to verify. I just don't see a board wide significant even like this. This looks more like a clown map to me. I am still amazed at the difference in amounts we are still seeing. This looks like a boardwide hit, the Euro looks mostly ENC hit, the CMC is more of a NNC/SEVA hit, and NAM looks disgustingly awful for just about everyone ( I Know, the NAM is useless at this point). Then we have lesser well known modles like the Arpegee and ICON and GEFS that are also showing big hits. My head is spinning!

Here are a couple things to think about, especially for the upstate and NEGA peeps. This storm seems to have sped up quite a bit. At first it was Sat pm into Sat night. Now it has trended to Fri pm to Fri night, about 24 hours faster. GSP is talking about this starting as rain now, whereas we weren't thinking that a couple of days ago. That will certainly eat into totals. It also seems to be a fast mover. In these type of setup, particularly with late bloomers, eastern areas are going to fare better than us (plus we have lower level temps to worry about now, as usual). My advice is to take these GFS maps cautiously and temper expectations until the last flake has fallen. In those areas, we have seen over and over where cold is delayed in making it over the mountains, moisture is chewed up, and the models try to "see" wraparound snow that climo says will never reach our area. Be careful if you are hanging your bets on evap cooling, upslope enhancement, or wrap around bands. Living in the upstate for over 30 years, I have rarely seen any of those deliver in winter weather events. 

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Going out for a short trip this evening and noticed it seeming to get cold pretty quick from this front passing through. Mets were saying yesterday it would take a while for the cold to filter in but the winds were brisk and cold. Soil temps here were pushing 50 today so this should help to get them down quick and not eat some of our accumulations away.

Sent from my VS990 using Tapatalk


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9 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Here is the updated one, your image is from this morning. 

Note, this is the POTENTIAL map. 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Sorry, can't get it to paste the latest map for some reason, but it basically doubles this for potential. For "Most Likely" it has about 2 in the upstate and 3 in the mountains. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

My bad, I was trying to post the recent update from GSP which increased the potential amounts in this area. This one was from this morning, the new update increased the potential a good bit. If someone could post that would be good, for some reason having a computer issue.

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1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Here is the updated one, your image is from this morning. 

Note, this is the POTENTIAL map. 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

 

:huh: Both call maps look the same to me. 

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4 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well I gotta say that the latest GFS, verbatim, would probably make just about everyone here happy (though I am sure there is some ice). But this is exactly why I have a hard time trusting that this has any chance to verify. I just don't see a board wide significant even like this. This looks more like a clown map to me. I am still amazed at the difference in amounts we are still seeing. This looks like a boardwide hit, the Euro looks mostly ENC hit, the CMC is more of a NNC/SEVA hit, and NAM looks disgustingly awful for just about everyone ( I Know, the NAM is useless at this point). Then we have lesser well known modles like the Arpegee and ICON and GEFS that are also showing big hits. My head is spinning!

Here are a couple things to think about, especially for the upstate and NEGA peeps. This storm seems to have sped up quite a bit. At first it was Sat pm into Sat night. Now it has trended to Fri pm to Fri night, about 24 hours faster. GSP is talking about this starting as rain now, whereas we weren't thinking that a couple of days ago. That will certainly eat into totals. It also seems to be a fast mover. In these type of setup, particularly with late bloomers, eastern areas are going to fare better than us (plus we have lower level temps to worry about now, as usual). My advice is to take these GFS maps cautiously and temper expectations until the last flake has fallen. In those areas, we have seen over and over where cold is delayed in making it over the mountains, moisture is chewed up, and the models try to "see" wraparound snow that climo says will never reach our area. Be careful if you are hanging your bets on evap cooling, upslope enhancement, or wrap around bands. Living in the upstate for over 30 years, I have rarely seen any of those deliver in winter weather events. 

Think this was originally a late Friday night Saturday morning event, 3 or 4 days ago, not Saturday night. It has sped up a lot in recent runs. All your points are valid, the temps are very concerning, especially 2m temps! I think this cold is pretty cold, and Arctic front should be through tonight, and I expect the usual 24 hour lag hang up by the mountains, so hopefully,we have some more Arctic like air by Friday morning, and guessing thick clouds Friday, we could maybe stay in the 36-37 degrees range, I think we could be sitting in a good spot! The Euro, is only model that's showing way warm 850s!?

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11 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

My bad, I was trying to post the recent update from GSP which increased the potential amounts in this area. This one was from this morning, the new update increased the potential a good bit. If someone could post that would be good, for some reason having a computer issue.

Here you go.

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

 

Edit: Weird, it's the right one til I hit submit and then it changes

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