franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like it had a little more ns interaction as it was coming through our area. Wave the flag... gfs...gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: 4-5" here, now 7 runs in a row with almost the same exact amounts Par personal experience, you never want to be a "jackpot" zone 48 hours before a event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Shows 13-15 inches around Lake Mattamuskeet! Also continues to show the precip max in WNC, NWSC, and NEGA from leeside enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 A slightly sharper s/w makes all the difference. Let's keep that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: That's kind of a funky looking map in GA. It shows much more snow in Atlanta than it does for areas to the west and to the east. I even get less snow than ATL. Didn't Lookout just talk about that area being a dry zone early in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 You can see the subtle differences in further digging out west with further ridging in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Par personal experience, you never want to be a "jackpot" zone 48 hours before a event. Usually, but the incredible consistency of the GFS lends me to believe it more than in other situations. BTW, I am not going for 4" here, playing a more conservative 1-4 for the Metro. I would love to bust on the low side though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 With this run of the GFS, the UKMet, Euro, and GFS have converged to a large degree. GFS gets some precip going in MS and Bama that the Euro doesn't really have...I think the GFS is more correct there, tho don't expect it to be heavy there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowDeac said: You keep posting negative stuff like this. Also, I think people are overusing the "jackpot" term pretty badly. I certainly wouldn't call 4-5 inches of snow (while still great) a jackpot, when a model shows other areas (ENC) receiving 9-10+. 4-6" is a "jackpot" for here, only snowed that much 3-4 times in my 35 years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Jackpot looks like Greenville, NC and SW of there. Good run for much of NC save the SE corner and NW corner....good just to the NW of Columbia and Florence and the NW part of the SC First run in a couple of days that we've seen concentrated icing issues ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSC29356 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Is it possible the GFS got better sampling data for the 18z run vs the 12z run. Maybe better data ingested regarding the energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That's kind of a funky looking map in GA. It shows much more snow in Atlanta than it does for areas to the west and to the east. I even get less snow than ATL. I never like using snow maps unless its an all snow situation with temps in the 20s, otherwise in borderline scenarios the model tries to account for literal surface temps. If it thinks its 33 it does not show accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 If we can get some of that convective action going FFC was talking about earlier I think we might see more than 1-3 inches Ive been thinking. Im trying not to get into Weenie mode. Looks like the GFS is a bit juicier than the last few runs this time around. Hoping this trend continues and we can get just a bit stronger L developing a tad sooner as it slides south of us. Would also like to see a bit stronger Jet above us here for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Rgem at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That's kind of a funky looking map in GA. It shows much more snow in Atlanta than it does for areas to the west and to the east. I even get less snow than ATL. As you well know it is weather. North is not an automatic win for more snow, look at January 1973 in Atlanta.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: 2-3 inches 30 miles north of me, 2-3 inches 30 miles south of me. about 0.25 inches for me. Was really hopeful Birmingham would end their 24 year 4" storm drought. or at least the 17 year 3" storm drought. seems highly unlikely either of those are broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Verbatim, GFS puts the low temp on Sunday AM at 3 in GVL (5 at GSP), and 5 the following night. Talk about a refreeze, and it's all (or mostly) presumed snowpack getting it that cold. Obviously some areas north/east are even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernStorms Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 James Spann is starting to list maps with some accumulation on central alabama: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSC29356 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, farleydawg79 said: Some areas of EGA are getting the finger compared to the 12z run. Had much more accumulation filled in. It appears to me that the lee trough is shown a bit more robust on this run. Which would likely create a stout warm nose in that area, cutting down on totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I know the chances of us getting 4" is small, but you would think WPC would at least give us a 10% chance. Heck the GFS gave us 5". Either they didnt factor that run into their thinking or that run is totally unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, farleydawg79 said: Some areas of EGA are getting the finger compared to the 12z run. Had much more accumulation filled in. I think at least some of this is the issues with snow maps that SnowGoose mentioned. The precip is pretty much universally heavier/further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Ratios look to be well above climo for most of NC/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I never like using snow maps unless its an all snow situation with temps in the 20s, otherwise in borderline scenarios the model tries to account for literal surface temps. If it thinks its 33 it does not show accumulation FWIW, on the Pivotal Weather maps, we're showing an estimate of how much snow falls -- not necessarily how much accumulates on the ground ("Accumulated Snow" in the plot title refers to accumulation over a period of time). However, I will say that with any of the NCEP models, there is no perfect way to estimate snowfall using just the data files available to the public (i.e., the data files used by popular model graphic sites like ours). Different producers of graphics may choose to approach snowfall estimates in slightly different ways, but they're all at least somewhat flawed, because we aren't being given precise data about how much QPF falls "as snow." The Canadian models, on the other hand, give us this information and allow us to produce much better snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Interesting for us newbs/lay people, NWS RAH's media product they just tweeted. http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdfSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Finally...the GFS comes more in-line with the EC, it appears. Maybe it will improve even more at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 WRAL Mike Maze posted this: Says he is wary to label the contours yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Hopefully we can get those better ratios a little further south in N GA. 1:8 - 1:10 ga is t getting much more than that. Nc perhaps more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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