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brettjrob

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About brettjrob

  • Birthday 09/30/1987

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOKC
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Norman, OK

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  1. brettjrob

    pivotalweather.com

    Thanks for the feedback! In UI design, there's often some tradeoff between powerful features and simplicity of presentation. We try to strike the right balance, but probably lean more toward packing in extra features where possible, even if it sometimes makes the UI more complex. I know several of the other popular NWP graphics sites use a loop presentation by default, and that's something we've resisted to this point, out of concern for mobile users' bandwidth (e.g., if a 384-hour GFS loop is the first thing that loads when you hit the site, you may be pulling down 5-10 MB of data right away). We're continuing to evaluate that and may change the default mode in the future, though. If you or anyone else here has a specific suggestion on how the interface or experience could be improved, don't hesitate to let us know. If we get consistent feedback about a specific aspect of the site, there's a good chance we'll take it into account in future updates.
  2. brettjrob

    pivotalweather.com

    This is available on our Loop animation mode. We just reshuffled our UI a bit earlier this week in an attempt to make all our looping and animation options more visible. Under "Animation," the option "Forecast Loop" is similar to what several other sites offer (preloading all hours of a forecast with a slider). You can also view a Trend Loop (dProg/dt) in the same format. Here's an example: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
  3. brettjrob

    pivotalweather.com

    It's been awhile since I've updated this thread, but quite a few new features have been added to PW in recent months: Soundings for Canadian (GDPS and RDPS) and GFS-FV3 (I believe we are currently the only free site with these) Soundings now available globally (GFS, GFS-FV3, and GDPS) NWS Advisories/Warnings, NDFD, WPC, CPC, and QPE/snow analysis maps available under "OTHER MAPS" tab on main site menu Data value readout on mouse hover now available in animations Model Comparison mode: toggle between forecasts from all models on our site for the time and product you're viewing without flipping tabs! You can also generate animated GIFs comparing the models this way. Example: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011018&fh=72&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=bl Just wanted to highlight some of these as more winter threats appear on the horizon. As always, feel free to respond here or DM me if you have any questions, comments, or suggestsion!
  4. brettjrob

    Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    Should be a crazy day with widespread significant severe, but the MCS-driven crashing front, packed-isobar scenario looks to be unfolding, which should put a fairly low ceiling on any widespread supercell tornado potential. Still a serious situation for the general public -- as mentioned above, this kind of environment often does "crazy" things with any storm mode or mixture thereof.
  5. brettjrob

    Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    Muskogee storm has awfully tight rotation at ~1400 ft. on TTUL for an unwarned storm. Odds of these being nicer sups than anything tomorrow? lol
  6. brettjrob

    Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    Kinda. Looks like an MCS-driven surging front plowing 100-150 mi. southward just between 21z-00z. Lots of maxi UH with that activity. Derecho threat, for sure, though. FWIW, the 21z HRRRx has a similar scenario, albeit farther east. If other 00z CAMs are in agreement with the midday MCS scenario in KS, it's probably time to shift the emphasis away from strong tornadoes (other than a true mesoscale accident) and toward a major wind threat centered over the Ozarks.
  7. brettjrob

    Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    God, I thought I was pretty well versed on the 2003 outbreak sequence, and I didn't even know about May 6... 63 reports?! It's hard to even comprehend a stretch like May 4-15, 2003, these days. Anyway, the 12z NCEP HRW runs paint by far the prettiest chasing picture out of all the guidance I've seen. They hold the CF at bay late enough for a significant threat across E KS, which would be far preferable to either the SW MO/NE OK Ozarks region or the I-35 corridor from OKC to DFW and eastward. But, failing that... yeah, I just don't see the dryline play having very good odds, tornado-wise. Instead, it looks like a messy triple point/OFB focal point around the Tri-state region that, if anything big does manage to happen, harkens back to some ugly days that everyone (chasers and public) would rather forget than relive. Followed by nothing at all on the Plains for a good while after tomorrow.
  8. brettjrob

    Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    The LLJ Saturday is not only strongly veered (WSW), but fairly anemic by 00z along the DL, which puts a big question mark on the likelihood of multiple tornadic sups (provided multiple storms initiate). Since all signs are pointing toward a DL along and E of the I-35/I-44 corridor, super veered H85 isn't a dealbreaker, but it's not ideal. Days like 5/10/08 and 5/21-22/11 do come to mind as examples of the ceiling, consistent with a maximized threat from around Ardmore to Joplin. Just not sure yet whether the LLJ will be strong enough to approach that territory. Overall, though... it's late May, low-mid 70s Td's, and I tend to agree with the general idea that drylines punching east into this region with extreme instability this time of year have an ominous history. Unless it's a cap bust, at least a few tornadoes appear probable, and sigtor's can never be considered a surprise in this type of environment.
  9. The current 7-10 day period is looking pretty grim to me. This week's string of southwest flow days is highly flawed, with Saturday at least offering some legitimate potential given CI. Then the pattern goes back to pure ugliness for at least 4-5 days heading through Memorial Day weekend into mid next week. Hurts, coming on the heels of perhaps the biggest waste of a late May longwave western trough I've seen (last week).
  10. brettjrob

    May 15-20 Severe Threat

    The focus that day was mainly east of the area I'm talking about, but point taken. The Canton tornado was pretty far west (though still not in great chase terrain, for those keeping score). Yeah, no doubt. I'm not expecting historic outbreaks every few years or anything, and it's not like it would take a 5/24/11 caliber event with multiple EF4-5s (shifted 80-100 mi. W) to qualify as breaking the drought. I'd say 10/9/01 was a perfectly respectable dryline tornado event (regional outbreak) that one would expect to see with some regularity in any similar-size region of the southern Plains. That you can't find anything even matching that for 16 years afterwards is, to me, pretty remarkable. The number of solid multi-storm events in adjacent areas like C OK, C KS, W KS in that post-2001 period is also striking. There have been a handful of eye-catching busts in those areas, too, but not like this. EDIT: Plotting all reports with path length >1 mi. since 10/10/01, it occurs to me that you might be able to make a similar argument for E KS. I can't remember off the top of my head if they've had a big multi-storm day since 5/8/03. At the same time, I don't remember anywhere near the same number of mega-hype busts there, either.
  11. brettjrob

    May 15-20 Severe Threat

    I feel like it's worth compiling a list of setups that ranged from disappointing to all-out busts for western OK, where the region west of roughly Lawton to Enid was the main focus. I skimmed through my chase logs and came up with these, all of which had at least 10% tor probs for most of that area. 4/1/06 (80/50 TOR watch) 5/6/07 4/7/08 (PDS) 4/25/09 4/26/09 (HIGH, PDS) 5/23/11 4/17/13 5/8/15 5/9/15 4/26/16 (PDS) 5/8/16 5/16/17 (PDS) 5/18/17 (HIGH, PDS) Some of these are reaching a tad, but the fact remains: the last time we had a real "outbreak" scenario with multiple storms producing serious long-track tornadoes in that region was 2001. There have certainly been serious tornadoes out there, like 11/7/11, 4/14/12 and 5/16/15, but they were all basically single-storm events in OK (sometimes surrounded by many failed storms, like 5/16/15). And yet: I think you could find just about every failure mode possible for Plains events among the busts and semi-busts/letdowns out there the last 10-15 years.
  12. brettjrob

    May 15-20 Severe Threat

    HRRRx has been consistent in firing "junky" cells well east of the DL on each of its long-cycle runs today, in agreement with MPAS and the NCAR ensemble from last night. Meanwhile, the NSSL WRF and 3-km NAM nest are much different, with classic supercells initiating along the DL and streaking across the warm sector. Confidence in the broad convective evolution appears below average for this lead time, and makes a lot of difference in the outcome. A consistent theme in the junky-looking guidance is early (17-19z) development of an intense complex across C/N TX, which sends off outflow and/or left splits to the N and screws up most of the OK threat.
  13. brettjrob

    May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Tomorrow's a tough nut to crack. Don't feel comfortable ruling out a large event/outbreak, but certainly don't have high confidence in that scenario. Overall, the environment along the DL looks better than yesterday by 23-01z, both due to less VBV and less likelihood of capping/cool air downstream of CI. On the other hand, wave timing seems off, with some indications in the guidance of warm sector storms exploding early-mid afternoon closer to the I-35 corridor. Plus, this is a neutral to slightly positively-tilted trough, which I never like seeing for more intense systems like this. Obviously, the cold air lurking up north isn't ideal, either. With all that being said, it's mid-May... if the warm sector is still relatively clean by 21z and CI is imminent along the DL at that point, this *should* be the biggest Plains event of the season thus far.
  14. brettjrob

    May 10th-11th Severe Threats

    This. I'm done mincing words about the TV guys, particularly OKC market. Some of them need permanently removed from the roads in storm environments.
  15. brettjrob

    May 10th-11th Severe Threats

    Yeah, was right under the meso near and just E of Davidson and none of those spin-ups were convincing tornadoes. It's possible there was a bird fart or two that weren't true gustnadoes, but meh. The middling structure 30 minutes earlier near Vernon was more interesting. The suffocating hordes, media chasers passing at 110 mph in dense traffic, and roid raging cops berating us for no reason were all more memorable. My "chasing is no fun inside this radius from OKC" number grows exponentially each year lately.
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