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About bjc0303

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  1. I will say, one thing we can probably be pretty damn sure about for Saturday is moisture, and instability. The generally conservative ECMWF forecasts low-mid 70s dewpoints east of the OK dry line. The GFS and NAM depict mid-upper 70s, likely an overforecast. However, SREF mean forecasts of surface dewpoints east of the dry line Saturday suggest middle 70s dewpoints likely (seeing means of 75 or so).
  2. Then we must see different things, as I see hodographs favoring strong mesocyclone development when paired with strong-extreme instability, at least on Friday. 850 flow is veered but still roughly parallel to remnant dry line such that detrainment won't be a huge issue, and with nearly westerly winds aloft, there is strong veering and strong SRW through most of the hodograph. That's just me.. and I do expect a storm or two to develop Friday.
  3. Yeah, just gonna have to make due (Fri/Sat) with what we have. Still not buying Friday staying completely capped, and will eagerly await coming home with a burn/tan if it does fail to convect. I agree though, what a waste of TWO pretty severe-favorable looking longwave troughs. One in late April and the other last week. Unbelievable that neither quite panned out.. Both had outbreak potential, relatively speaking (as happens with pronounced, favorably-positioned longwave patterns). I wouldn't give up on June quite yet (although, if you're stuck with southern plains chasing, perhaps).. Central and northern plains through June could be rocking.
  4. Yes, pushing a dry line/remnant dry line feature east of I-35 in late spring is rarely good for places out that way.
  5. Would you care to explain more why you feel this way? I'm talking mostly about the bolded. For Friday: modest response in the lowest levels, but still a pretty solid low-level wind profile. Strong storm relative winds through most of the profile. Cap will likely keep convective coverage extremely low Friday, but I certainly see no problem getting one or two supercells to initiate in the vicinity of the decaying surface cyclone and attendant dry line/front intersection where convergence will be maximized. For Saturday: Well it's a similar pattern, only perhaps less strongly capped. Same issue as above re: modest mass responses in the low levels, but still a sufficiently veering hodograph, only perhaps some weak storm relative winds in the 2-4 km layer... also uncertainties abound given possible enhancements or augmentations from prior day convection-related outflow.. But GFS/ECMWF highlight a severe-favorable parameter space in roughly the same areas as Friday. Both days (especially Friday) feature modest upper level forcing such that convective coverage should be low (Friday), or at least widely scattered (Saturday). Friday seems to me a very conditional day, but one with a bigger payout than Saturday. Given I live in Norman, I'll be there for both.
  6. I feel like there should be a pinned post on GFS being too progressive generally on eastward placement of dry line, sfc features etc. Saw it last week, and if you pay attention long enough you'll see it's a constant theme of the GFS and its ensemble members which ALL exhibit a mixing bias. NAM, ECMWF, and GFS (accounting for its bias) all point to southern, SE OK. Early in the period a dominant surface low will be moving east.. before it starts to fill as renewed cyclogenesis occurs with the arrival of a stronger speed max/impulse. As this occurs, winds will back along the dry line. Most of the dry line looks to remain capped on Friday. However, there does appear across NAM/GFS forecast soundings that a window of opportunity will exist for supercell development in the area of convergence along the dry line/sfc low interface in east OK. Looks like a conditional risk for significant severe, as wind profiles and thermodynamics, even with a modest low level response, would look very favorable for supercells capable of destructive hail and perhaps a few tornadoes.
  7. Having a pretty hard time seeing Friday cap bust at the moment. ECMWF does not convect, several GEFS/op member do.
  8. Agreed. Synoptically driven patterns don't look completely dead however. FWIW (very, very little) the 06z GFS shows an active pattern into June.. Which would likely bring a string of active days over KS, NE, perhaps even OK (pending EML strength). Jet certainly looks to remain active for at least another 2-3 weeks; this is reflected in the recent ERTAF forecast.
  9. Pretty good signal, tho think GFS probably a hair too east as usual putting OKC/Norman in risk area. Think we will get a quality two days of storms, 2013 style with a dry line/sagging cold/stationary front.
  10. Looking more and more like tornado activity will pick back up again late this week into the weekend. Models now converging on what I would call a typical late may tornado setup with rich gulf moisture, strong-extreme instability, and a well developed evening LLJ. More fine-scale details cannot be resolved right now, such as strength of the EML/base temps, boundary placement, etc.. but looking increasingly conducive for tornadic supercells. Unlike recent setups this one may have more densely populated areas in the mix. Not worth going over much more at this point. GFS forecasts have quite the hot EML, but no real consistency. While some parts may get shut out due to capping, someone is going to see CI. Even now the GFS convects, and I imagine smaller scale perturbations provide glancing influence to erode capping. Saturday may be an outflow boundary day.
  11. I will say the GFS has not had much consistency with these features, so these forecasts are very much subject to change (including fcst EML/base temperatures and related inhibition).
  12. EHI alone not sufficient. You can max out EHI without having an environment capable of initiating convection. Brief lull in severe until Fri/Sat/Sun where we may see some dry line supercell activity. No solid consistency yet, but looks like there will be something.
  13. *Be very cautious with CAMs* they are likely underforecasting cap (reference FWD, OUN soundings) and initaiting too early, numerous. Significant day ahead.
  14. To be honest I'm doubting HRRR solutions of rapid upscale growth and think this is an issue with an extreme instability solution.. And is it just me or did Edwards suggest possible upgrades in percentages?
  15. One of the first Plains setups this season I can remember the moisture being well on its way... moisture will not be a problem folks. always look at your source regions.