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About bjc0303

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  1. Was shocked when SPC didn't include a risk area for Thursday on their 4-8 outlook. This looks like a mixed mode event. Strong supercells with very large hail, some tornadoes (possibly strong) mixed in with bowing segments, especially near the effective/warm front.
  2. Monday on the other hand looks potent...
  3. If it is that close to the MCS, then they would likely be undercut rapidly by that outflow.. Better odds at something worth watching will be in the wake of the MCS, should atmosphere recover, or in Nebraska where the cold front may be able to initiate a few storms.
  4. Should note that shear values (specifically, low level shear (strong SRW and SRH) abs deep layer (effective bulk shear) are far more important than the 500 mb flow values. Hence why OFBs are important in late season tornado events. They don't alter the flow aloft, but alter low level flow increasing low- and deep-layer shear... while also providing a rich source of low level horizontal, streamwise vorticity owing to barpclinic zone (often leading to accelerated low level mesocyclogenesis). You can have 55 knot 500 westerly flow, but it won't mean much with 45 knot surface westerlies... odd example, unrealistic even, but the point remains. Shear, and SRW, dominate over the pure mid level flow. Would be interested though in examining borderline cases where low level shear is high (ESRH greater than, say, 250?) But deep layer (effective BWD) fails to meet 35 knots.
  5. Yeah, I'm really hoping for some KS/NE/IA action. I really don't want to have to drive way up to the Dakotas.
  6. It's been brutal, this pattern. Making it worse is the persistence. They say persistence pays off..... Hopefully that applies to meteorology!
  7. Isentropic ascent along the outflow boundary evident in N OK would be responsible for that, perhaps weak ascent from perturbations aloft contributing.
  8. How can something be historic before it even happens?
  9. There very well could be (probably will be) several tornadoes from both the linear systems and the initial discrete supercells, even some strong ones possibly. To write that off would be absurd. But things are going to evolve quickly.
  10. Yeah, not liking the prospects of widespread supercell activity, however... Storms will organize fast, could go from Tcu to tornado in progress in very quick time. Might be a day where you just have to be there as early as possible, might get a tornado, then you're going to have to reposition as your storm gets enveloped by precip/upscale growth occurs. You may have to hop on every storm that goes up, and hope it produces, move on, etc.
  11. Capping is likely to spread into SGF as the stronger/steeper/warmer EML temps are advected eastward.
  12. Not sold at all on a WF tornado outbreak. Parameters there are only alarming because of convective contamination with the MCS on the NAM. GFS has really ramped up the parameters over NE OK in the vicinity of the triple point associated with a stronger forecast LLJ. Seeing a pretty weird signal in the 3km NAM for strong capping in between N TX and NE OK. Moreover the GFS has started to show this perhaps as well, and a relative dearth in QPF in this area suggests perhaps a region that may stay convection free (between the N TX dry line and the NE OK triple point). NCAR ensembles while mixed, do show this scenario as well. Starting to think there will be two convective regimes - the first along the TP/WF and east where a mix of supercells and a perhaps long-lived MCS and the second along the dry line from extreme southern OK through Texas. Gonna be a tough choice tomorrow. Won't know until the day of what's going on.
  13. I also believe strong tornadoes will be possible, just confined to storm interactions with effective front/OFB, wherever that ends up. I know that is what they're worried about.
  14. Not one to post NWS products or anything, but couldn't help but find it interesting the Tulsa HWO graphic says a few strong tornadoes possible.
  15. Those Missouri soundings are definitely contaminated.. MCS the NAM forecasts alters the pressure/height field/wind field in the area.