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About bjc0303

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  1. let's not forget the local chaser killed by El reno tornado
  2. right on cue - more aggressive convective development underway
  3. true - but you often see that as a precursor to more intense convective development. Seems WF development is a slower process as parcels steadily make their way to LFC via isentropic ascent... development not nearly as explosive as dry line dev, considerably more gradual
  4. Yesterday's? I question some model output. As brett noted, some high res guidance is suggestive of serious potential. Models are forecasting an environment supportive of significant severe. NAM 3km in particular produces weak looking convection even for a line. Honestly not sure why - linear mode? Sure, but the storms look very benign for the environment they would be in. Forecast environments look very favorable for all modes of severe with an expected storm mode imo of a mixed mode event. Any discrete/semi-discrete storms would pose significant threats. Short of an early day MCS wrecking the moist sector I cannot see some of these solutions panning out. Could I see a rapid upscale growth evolution? Sure.
  5. HRRRX is pretty tame as far as morning convection goes.. And unless I'm mistaken lifts the warm front *well* into OK. Seems unlikley...
  6. not sure I'm sold on such a southward shift but the NCAR ensemble is interesting. initiates pretty early too.
  7. I'm really not seeing anything to significantly hamper storm/tor potential
  8. I'd argue it will help - moisture less likely to mix out. Please people
  9. Well, I have been eyeing Tuesday for a pretty cool minute now and SPC just put out a day 3 enhanced. This one has been trending the right direction for just about everything. Looks to me like a potential tornado event for sure.
  10. One of the WRFs doesn't look too far off from the ESRL HRRR depicting broken line of supercells
  11. also really digging Tuesday high plains setup
  12. There have been some pretty impressive moisture return cases in history. We'll see how it plays out. SREF mean has generally increased with each run. I was just about to post about the CRP sounding. That is an impressive moisture profile. Eager to see how things change overnight.
  13. pretty good moist return forecast. SREF is encouraging
  14. experimental HRRR looks..active, you could say.
  15. As the GFS trends a little more to the Euro consider me pretty interested in Tuesday. Degree of moisture return will determine how big a day it could be. shear profiles look really nice as a whole on 06z GFS. ECMWF manages upper 50s/low 60s into the TX PH and west OK. Gonna need to watch that trend. If anything this general pattern will help bring some *much* needed rain to the area. Low soil moisture and intense mixing is causing severe underperformance as far as moisture goes, and we do not want that problem lingering later into April or May.