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About bjc0303

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  1. Regarding veer-back... there have been some fairly significant tornado episodes featuring backing aloft. As posted in another thread, the effects of backing aloft are not well understood, and simulations have had mixed results at best. I think focus for ascent would have to come from broad WAA and any confluence zones that arise. perhaps further west into OK there may be a window for initiation prior to arrival of the cold front.. but given the parameter space involved any supercells would be pretty significant
  2. This might actually be a pretty volatile day. Upper level troughing slowly makes its way east with strengthening wind profiles aloft yielding deep layer shear well above 50 knots. Large, rather unfocused pressure falls early on lead to broad warm air advection, giving way to a very broad warm sector spanning several regions. As the day progresses an elongated low pressure develops, backing flow somewhat to S/SW to even southerly as the eve approaches. With middle 60s dewpoints beneath lapse rates ranging from 7-8 K/km, strong deep layer shear, and increasing low level flow/shear, a pretty volatile environment may form especially over most of Arkansas. initiation would likely be driven by mesoscale boundaries such as confluence zones or enhanced areas of warm air advection. Soundings like the following can be found throughout most of extreme SE OK and AR: While 68 dewpoints probably won't materialize, 63-65 may very well verify which does not hamper the thermodynamics much.
  3. Very broad/large slight risk from southern plains east/northeast into ov...unless they decide to hold for better model clarity
  4. Well 1) that's 12z and 2) 70 knots deep shear + 300+ SRH in low levels = lot to be desired? huh?
  5. On the other hand if we get forecast sfc lows closer to 1000 mb the flow will be largely veered and the warm sector will be more in line with what is currently depicted in the day 4-8 outlook.
  6. Key point here is with the jet stream overhead small fluctuations in amplitude, strength, etc make a huge difference, hence varying strength and positioning of key features. Likewise bulk shear will be high given strong flow aloft. if stronger sfc low becomes forecast or evident... could be in for a show given MLCAPE 1000-2000 likely
  7. Not sure it is ever that extreme. I would bet on a dry line no father east than I 35 unless flow becomes veered overall like previous model runs suggested
  8. Idk if it's completely dead in the water. 00z ECMWF pulled the dry line back closer to i-35 again. So did the GFS. here is dprog/dt for GFS.
  9. Yeah, it's nothing really to worry about. Might get some western US troughing as we approach spring break, which would be absolutely perfect. euro ensemble indicates retrogressuon of the west us ridging around the middle of march. For March though you need a few days worth of return flow. ..so we will see how that pans out when the pattern inevitably changes.
  10. FWIW - veer back veer profiles in simulations have exhibited mixed results. A recent study didn't find any real negative effects from veer back profiles, so unsure what it really means for tornado potential.
  11. Best way to describe evolution of GFS runs would probably be...wacky. Highly inconsistent and lots of spread among ensemble members. Interested in whether the euro continues its consistency.
  12. I meant this spring. I've only used premium wx bell ECMWF hi res data for the last month or so... Also, I'd have to say that with the exception of a few soundings/areas, this seems almost surely like a QLCS event. Even with prefrontal supercells, at least what I saw suggested splitting supercells and critical angles that may make low level mesocyclogenesis difficult. Also - myou questions about the euro were more for Tuesday. as far as a supercell/tornado event goes I am much more interested in that. ECMWF has been substantially more consistent and potent than the GFS, but you can check that thread out for more of my thoughts.
  13. How does the Euro handle things from a dynamical/kinematics perspective? interested because I've only recently begun to use ECMWF hi res guidance. can answer in direct message to avoid OT. Side note- seems to me moisture has been on par w/ECMWF forecasts so far, in the plains at least.
  14. 00z and 12z Euro advect 60s dewpoints into central/eastern OK ahead of an eastward mixing dry line. winds back to S/SE towards 00z. I'm not even going to address the GFS because it is so 1) inconsistent and 2) crappy, so it's a very low confidence forecast (hence predictability too low). However, playing around with a GFS sounding on sharpPy to incorporate what I would anticipate given the ECMWF thermodynamic and kinematic progged profiles, almost verbatim, would yield 1000-1500 MLCAPE, maybe higher, juxtaposed with strong deep layer shear, strong low level shear, etc... with initiation likely occurring just to the west of I-35. Plenty could and probably will change, but the Euro suggests a pretty intriguing event. I definitely have my eyes on it. Unlike past few systems this one looks to have substantial moisture return aided by an ejecting wave/speed max ahead of the main system that, while producing some overnight convection, doesn't obliterate or mess up the warm sector and helps accelerate low level flow in anticipation of the main wave. Probably too much in terms of details this far out, but I think there will be a severe weather event next week. Moisture return and timing of upper level/associated low level response will be key.
  15. Seems like with recent rains, and more importantly, the early greening on the large scale, and GOMEX conditions, that the potential will exist for a somewhat earlier start to the severe weather season, or at least a brief period early next week where active weather takes place. Current GFS forecasts low 60s dewpoints to reach southern/central OK by next Monday. Some ensemble members become more unstable. The Euro is a little less progressive than the GFS and has low-mid 60s dewpoints in OK by Tuesday. Both depict similar setups, with a NE-SW oriented dry line owing to an SW-NE oriented jet streak aloft/SW flow aloft, but shear profiles look impressive nonetheless. Deterministic Euro is currently significantly more unstable than the deterministic GFS. Interesting to see how things unfold... Even a mix of the two models would yield bulk shear ranging in the 50s-60s, 0-1 km SRH 200+, and SBCAPE 1000-1500 j/kg.