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About bjc0303

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  1. Not going to lie, I am intrigued by the next few days for supercell/tornadoes. Doubt anything materializes Weds/Thurs, but intriguing potential nonetheless. Also a fan of tomorrow's severe weather setup, if approached from the perspective of "it's a summer pattern."
  2. Think it’s an issue with the feed
  3. I don’t have much to say about Friday but one thing: outflow boundary. global and mesoscale models indicate a SEward propagating upscale growing segment will move through SW Ne and N/W Kansas. This is depicted well by the 3km NAM and falls in line with low level flow anticipated. In the wake of the decaying activity Friday morning... all eyes will be on this boundary.
  4. Moisture is going to continue to be a limiting factor (as will weak shear in the deep layer). Moisture is pretty meh for the time of year thanks to the ULL in the gulf. Unfavorable trajectories should persist for quite a while. Ie, plains dealing with recycled/processed moisture rather than rich Caribbean trajectories. While Friday and Saturday could yield fun chase days, think that overall ceiling will be tempered by lack of richer low level moisture. 2018, you never cease to amaze. Severe opportunities should continue into parts of next week, perhaps shifting north. Ensembles depict potential activity for the northern plains closer to Memorial Day
  5. Might be time to close the door on May and look ahead to June. Unfortunately for me I will be at a camp June 3-17 with no phone or internet lol. Send your pics to Maxwell AFB folks.
  6. I know calling things a wedgefest is a meme and all, but the 00z euro dropped and absolute dime on the plains at hour 240 last night lol
  7. This week has looked like a dud for days now, but all signs suggest activity ramping up next week and continuing into the end of May. Could be looking at a prolonged stretch of activity. Finally the season may get going. Deterministic guidance, as well as ensemble guidance really favor uptick in activity for a large part of, if not the remainder of, May.
  8. bjc0303

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    The propensity for updrafts to collapse on themselves thanks to weak effective bulk shear have this looking like a non-event. Still could get some brief spinup out of a cluster or something, but I see this as a cluster/multicell storm event with low level shear leading to upscale growth in the early evening hours. Storm rotation will be possible and I suppose you'll see some interesting looking clouds at times, but tendency will be for updrafts to be choked off by cold pools. Largely a wind event. The lone exception is if you get enhanced wind shear along any remnant outflow boundaries. I think that is a pretty big if, and won't be discernible at this range.
  9. ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and FV3-GFS parallel all introduce western troughing in the 240 hour timeframe. GEFS, CMCE, and EPS all introduce western mean troughing about this time period. I honestly cannot help but get pretty excited looking at the Euro EPS mean. The evolution suggests extended southwest flow aloft, with a wide range spatially and temporally of targets. Details will not be clear for a long time, and at this range, even the ensemble could be fooled. Ensembles do exhibit noticeable skill in the 10-14 day window, though (as in skill > climatology). So while things will change, confidence does appear to be increasing slowly on prominent western troughing mid-late next week. This could be a period that helps make up for a lot of the downtime we've had this year. Here is a five day mean of heights centered on May 20th: Here is the evolution as a whole on the EPS (mean): After such a bleak opening, there appears to be reason for optimism going forward.
  10. GWO and MJO would definitely support a surge in activity the back half of May.
  11. bjc0303

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Euro with yet another potent run. Maybe one day, just maybe, chasers will learn to wait for the 48-60 hour range to seriously consider the NAM. Ah who am I kidding.
  12. bjc0303

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    This morning 12z Euro forecast looked like a somewhat decrease on overall threat, but still had one hell of an environment along and ahead of the dry line. Impressive consistency here.
  13. bjc0303

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Here’s what I meant re: QPF. Lots at play here - global cannot resolve convection by any means - but this is as good a signal as any for long lived scattered/discrete activity along the dry line. Mode maybe more questionable into KS with potentially higher forcing. Numerous details yet to be resolved, but the euro has me quite giddy for Tues/Weds.
  14. bjc0303

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Well the euro has QPF signals suggestive of scattered activity starting in the early afternoon across the dry line, with it continuing into overnight hours into NE OK and eastern KS.
  15. bjc0303

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Euro continues to look pretty potent for Tuesday and Wednesday.