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About bjc0303

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  1. 00z euro for Wednesday looks rather potent. QPF field suggests long lived scattered activity.
  2. A little skeptical of persistence here given near unanimous signal for western ridging to return after the passage of this trough. Euro looks capped for Monday. Tuesday is “the day.”
  3. On the flip side of my post is this: you can’t write anything off this far out. Do you believe the trough will really get that far south, as the GFS portrays? Will the cold front be as strong as progged by the ECMWF? Seems somewhat harsh if you ask me. These are are all valid concerns but to make definitive statements about next week at this moment is plainly silly and lazy.
  4. Trend for a positive tilt configuration not exactly chaser friendly. Some too amplified, some solutions quite weak. I also wouldnt call the image posted “ideal” at all. Ideal is a broad wave with strong perturbations emanating from the west over the warm sector. Overlap between favorable instability and kinematics could be small. Biggest positive is the prominent eastern ridge progged by nearly all guidance. It’s still way too far out to sweat details, but that goes both ways. Could be a slopfest, could be a fun time. Although moisture looks like it won’t be there in time for the first day (Monday), especially on the euro. Best kinematics seem to come Monday on the euro at a glance, although Tuesday looks solid just not in the best terrain. Monday is severely moisture deprived. But again, not worth sweating the details. There will be severe next week.
  5. Still can’t feel too excited for a number of reasons, but I’ll wait.
  6. Yeah, I’ll reserve getting too excited until the euro/ensemble jumps onboard. But at least there’s something to monitor.
  7. lol @ calling the season before May first.... You have no idea what May is going to bring. Just stop.
  8. Yep, just looked at the 12 eps lol
  9. Just as folks are calling it, I’m seeing some interesting stuff in the extended in both euro and gfs ensembles.
  10. Need to look at bias-corrected GEFS forecast:
  11. I don’t care too much for the analogs honestly. Severe wx depends too much on mesoscale factors to even care, in my opinion. People are crying too much about things we have zero control over and little (if any) predictive ability over. May could suck, May could also go out with a bang a la 2013. We won’t know for weeks, so as awful as the pattern looks ahead (and it does look quite awful), we are nowhere near reaching any respectable level of predictability wrt severe potential in May. The GEFS GWO phase space plots do have me somewhat concerned but again, even that hardly touches on May at this point. At some point it comes crashing down and climo wins out. If we still see progs like this by May 10th, then I’ll talk about reaching “awful May” status.
  12. Yeah as far as the moist axis goes... it’s totally fine. The meager instability is not owed to the quality of moisture (at least not near the dry line).
  13. Looking at individual members for Fri from EPS, I’m more encouraged.
  14. For sure. I definitely think an event happens, just would love to see us maximize our potential for once lol.