Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About bjc0303

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Location:
  1. I would agree but I wouldn't say it was that way because there weren't a bunch of EF-3+ tornadoes roaming around. It was just a mix of badly timed or placed events, and mesoscale features ruining otherwise good looking setups. Pretty boring season. On the large scale, we had a bigly amplified pattern that didn't allow for good moisture return for basically all of M-A-M until the latter half of May. I mean, you could say that the pattern sucked and that we didn't get any prominent events, but to me it's still weird to judge chase season quality on numbers of EF-3+ tornadoes.
  2. My birthday Just a note.. Tornado ratings don't mean anything when evaluating the quality of events. You're basically equating the quality of the season with the number of damaging tornadoes...doesn't make sense. The Wyoming event was pretty wild even if most of the tornadoes were 'weak' in the sense that they didn't have much to hit out there. Just an odd comment.. If we wanna harp on chaseability that's a different story. 2017 did suck in that regard. Guesses (or predictions?): Another 1300+ tornado year. Somewhat more active is my guess - at least from a chaseability standpoint. If we can stay out of the high-amplitude pattern we were in for a large chunk of spring last year, then I think we're a lock for 1300+. First high risk: April 28th - May 5th timeframe. Oh, you want an exact day? Okay. May 2nd. Plains high. Let us all take a moment of silence for that one late April system that held so much promise - yeah, the one that had I-35 outbreak written all over it by not only the GFS but the Euro as well? - yeah that one. Days before, both models said "HAHA NOPE" and it became total garbage.
  3. Looks as if the 12z ECMWF has taken a step towards GFS with wave amplification, leading to a stronger anticyclone..at least by Sun 12z. Still loading in. And none of this will really change how much snow is seen..the broader large scale pattern will keep heavier snowfall from being a thing. We need some deep system out of the southwest, at least for those of us in OK/TX/KS..
  4. Keep in mind, these really cold patterns are usually the result of highly amplified ridges with a NE trough.. While the pattern is great for repeated shots of cold air masses, it is not-so-good for moisture return nor is it going to result in a storm track conducive for widespread plains snowfall. Until we get out of this N/NW flow aloft we will stay cold (sometimes bitterly cold, like is being hinted at next week) but relatively dry.
  5. July 5-8 Severe Threats

    Was shocked when SPC didn't include a risk area for Thursday on their 4-8 outlook. This looks like a mixed mode event. Strong supercells with very large hail, some tornadoes (possibly strong) mixed in with bowing segments, especially near the effective/warm front.
  6. June 11-17 Severe Threats

    Monday on the other hand looks potent...
  7. June 11-17 Severe Threats

    If it is that close to the MCS, then they would likely be undercut rapidly by that outflow.. Better odds at something worth watching will be in the wake of the MCS, should atmosphere recover, or in Nebraska where the cold front may be able to initiate a few storms.
  8. Should note that shear values (specifically, low level shear (strong SRW and SRH) abs deep layer (effective bulk shear) are far more important than the 500 mb flow values. Hence why OFBs are important in late season tornado events. They don't alter the flow aloft, but alter low level flow increasing low- and deep-layer shear... while also providing a rich source of low level horizontal, streamwise vorticity owing to barpclinic zone (often leading to accelerated low level mesocyclogenesis). You can have 55 knot 500 westerly flow, but it won't mean much with 45 knot surface westerlies... odd example, unrealistic even, but the point remains. Shear, and SRW, dominate over the pure mid level flow. Would be interested though in examining borderline cases where low level shear is high (ESRH greater than, say, 250?) But deep layer (effective BWD) fails to meet 35 knots.
  9. Yeah, I'm really hoping for some KS/NE/IA action. I really don't want to have to drive way up to the Dakotas.
  10. It's been brutal, this pattern. Making it worse is the persistence. They say persistence pays off..... Hopefully that applies to meteorology!
  11. Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    Isentropic ascent along the outflow boundary evident in N OK would be responsible for that, perhaps weak ascent from perturbations aloft contributing.
  12. Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    How can something be historic before it even happens?
  13. Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    There very well could be (probably will be) several tornadoes from both the linear systems and the initial discrete supercells, even some strong ones possibly. To write that off would be absurd. But things are going to evolve quickly.
  14. Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    Yeah, not liking the prospects of widespread supercell activity, however... Storms will organize fast, could go from Tcu to tornado in progress in very quick time. Might be a day where you just have to be there as early as possible, might get a tornado, then you're going to have to reposition as your storm gets enveloped by precip/upscale growth occurs. You may have to hop on every storm that goes up, and hope it produces, move on, etc.
  15. Memorial Day weekend severe threats

    Capping is likely to spread into SGF as the stronger/steeper/warmer EML temps are advected eastward.