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About natecast

  • Birthday 01/18/1981

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Edmond, OK

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  1. Nocturnal tornado threats in Oklahoma/north Texas are not very common, but latest NAM would seem to yield a chance of overnight tornadoes Friday night/Saturday morning in north TX and southern and MAYBE central OK. This is assuming surface based convection. Trends from 0z, 6z, and now 12z NAM are to keep inching the instability axis further north. Warm front looks pretty close to I-44 overnight now on latest run. Actually, matches up pretty well with SPC's Day 3 outlook. Some of the more experienced posters can correct me if I'm not looking at something right...
  2. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    Thanks for the update JoMo. Where does the Euro have the freezing line setting up?
  3. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    Personally, I do not trust the GFS temperature outputs. At all.
  4. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    I really can't imagine 3" of rain all below freezing. Ugh. I've been through some doozies but that would take the cake.
  5. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    Thanks for the info. I've seen it said the past couple of days, the cold air usually pushes a few counties further south and east than the models indicate. Of course, we're still talking 5 days away. Lots of model watching to go...
  6. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    Yeah...It looks like OKC gets 3" of precip, a lot of it freezing rain. This run would be pretty awful around here.
  7. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    OKC officially dropped to -3 this morning, tying a 105-year old record low. Only 3rd time in last 26 years it has fallen below zero at the airport. Impressive cold.
  8. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    Definitely our best snow in 2 winters. OKC officially received 1.2" ALL of last winter. In Edmond/North OKC, I'd estimate we got about 3". Nice light, powdery snow.
  9. natecast

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

    HRRR is being remarkably consistent with a narrow band around 6+" close to I-40 around OKC. Keeping my expectations in check, thinking I'll get closer to 2-3". But these mesoscale bands can surprise people.
  10. Storms that have fired in the supercell genesis magic area NE of Lawton strengthening pretty rapidly.
  11. Was just going to mention that. Upper level energy finally nosing in? They've taken off in the last 15 minutes.
  12. Same here! We'll see if I can watch the game in my living room or will be streaming from the shelter, lol.
  13. I know this isn't the only ingredient to a severe weather forecast, but SBCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis is up to 6,000 in portions of western Oklahoma....at 10:30AM. Extraordinary.
  14. natecast

    April 24-30th Severe Potential

    I think we all agree the NAM forecast for instability is overdone tomorrow, but if there are even 3-4 hours of clearing after morning convection I can definitely see a scenario where we get a few tornado reports in OK/north TX Friday late afternoon and evening. Wind profile will be adequate, warm frontal boundary will be in play, and cloud bases will be very low. Just get the feeling that we may end up with an over performer tomorrow after the bust this past Tuesday.