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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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6 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Only thing about the NAM that could be considered disconcerting is that, in winters past, it notoriously OVERestimated QPF. I remember some NAM clown maps looking like that Sierra Nevada map somebody posted a few pages back. Anyway, all the usual "NAM sucks" caveats apply, but I'd rather be discounting its wetness than dryness.

It the NAM has the h5 setup right, then it's totals are reasonable.....but most modeling doesn't agree with the NAM at h5

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24 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Wow made a great point about the sharpness of the trough and how that related to bigger totals.  Seems like it makes a big difference. What do we need to look for in future runs for the trough to sharpen up?  

Need more energy dropping in from the northern stream. You can see it bend the 540 and 546dm contours farther SW toward the s/w in those 2 scenarios at 60 hrs.

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32 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Wow made a great point about the sharpness of the trough and how that related to bigger totals.  Seems like it makes a big difference. What do we need to look for in future runs for the trough to sharpen up?  

Edit, gosh the NAM is aweful.  Basically a non event until it gets to the ocean. 

niner - my comments earlier were more related to the Euro and UKMet...but you were probably referring to the NAM/GFS, so ignore

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RNK going with 50% chance it will not snow here............

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WIND
CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE. 
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Biggest thing I noticed on this GFS run was that at hour 48 compared to 54 hr 12z panel is 500mb heights are just a tad further south across the OK panhandle and the just a tad further north across the Carolina's.  Maybe 50 miles if that much.  More digging to the west with more ridge to the east and a weaker low off the NE coast yields more precip on GFS.

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