BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: as of 1:20pm 6:00 am 1/4/17 Those dates on the top image are not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Wow!!!! Lol Look at the dates on the top image. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 sure hope they up this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The GFS has been consistently showing this finger over heavier precip over the Savannah river valley Friday night, while most other modeling does not show this maxima vertically oriented maxima. Do any Met's have an explanation for what the GFS is picking up on here? I noticed some of the surface isobars are bent in over this area. Maybe an inverted trough of sorts? Whatever it's seeing... I hope it's right! You know burrel it probably has a lot to do with the warm bubble there...a thermal trough so to speak...I know Robert used to talk a lot about an inverted trough in that region with some enhanced precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, sarcean said: sure hope they up this That's great for this time range. They'll increase or decrease as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, sarcean said: sure hope they up this Looks reasonable to me. If you average the 12z model snow totals and cut in half you end up with 2-4" over most of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: That's great for this time range. They'll increase or decrease as we get closer. I would cash that in right now if I could. 2-3" of snow with temps in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, SVA_SN said: If my memory is correct the 12z EPS mean looks very similar to the 00z. There are several members with the heaviest axis of snow to the NW of where the op is. It hasn't run yet? Or are you referring to yesterdays 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: You know burrel it probably has a lot to do with the warm bubble there...a thermal trough so to speak...I know Robert used to talk a lot about an inverted trough in that region with some enhanced precip Bingo...Lee trough enhancement. It worked for us a few years ago as this magic bubble of precip just popped out of no where. Gave me about 2 inches of snow. Latest GFS ramped it up a bit also. For sure bears watching as it may end up being the saving grace in my area and the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 hours ago, burrel2 said: This has been an absolutely brutal week for me as I'm suppose to be attending a conference in Savannah this weekend. The biggest day of it is Friday and it will end at 4:30pm so my plan is to haul tail from there and make it to my house by 9pm, and hopefully not get fired for missing Saturday. Wow...you'd risk a job to go see snow? That's dedication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, SVA_SN said: You are correct I was looking at the 00z by mistake. No worries, we will have the new eps in about 50 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Those dates on the top image are not correct. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: Wow...you'd risk a job to go see snow? That's dedication. I literally got fired from a job years ago because I went on a snow chase and got stuck and couldnt make it home for 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wherever the heaviest snowpack sets up, it will be FRIGID there the following few days. Monday lows on the 12z Euro are in the single digits for a large swath of Upstate SC through Central and NE NC (including CLT). There are some isolated spots below 0 F in those areas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 While we are in the lull in models runs, this provides a bit of perspective. All excited about 2" or even 10"? The Sierra Nevada mountains of CA are forecast to get over 200" of snow the next week. Chew on that for a second.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, sarcean said: sure hope they up this That's higher that they were offering early this morning. One more n'west bump and these numbers would likely climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 it appears the euro is slower bring precipitation in here. doesn't really get here until after midnight sat am...all others are showing friday afternoon. I think the euro is only have a little overrunning precipitation back toward TN and northern ms and al....euro really doesn't push much of that, but really starts to crank it once the low gets going. Still some big questions on what is going to happen. GFS builds in a high and delivers more cold down before hand, plus flatter so the cold can push. EURO starts that, but since its stronger overall, it starts tilting everything from NE to SW and the cold push stops until the low gets going. By that time, its almost game over for all outside of NGA MTNS, upstate and NC.....just how I see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 17 4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: While we are in the lull in models runs, this provides a bit of perspective. All excited about 2" or even 10"? The Sierra Nevada mountains of CA are forecast to get over 200" of snow the next week. Chew on that for a second.... Really the best news of all. This will end up being melt water in the spring which will help everybody (including mother nature)...Just maybe the western drought is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 6:00 am 1/4/17 as of 1:20pm Wow...seems they actually upped things a bit. Interesting considering the model data. I'm holding on to hope that somehow some way this things gonna try and get its act together just a little further west in the gulf, cause that could make all the difference in the world for the western half of GSP's CWFA. Otherwise it's up to the lee trough to try and pump some up this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: While we are in the lull in models runs, this provides a bit of perspective. All excited about 2" or even 10"? The Sierra Nevada mountains of CA are forecast to get over 200" of snow the next week. Chew on that for a second.... Equals 2000 years of climo snow for Waycross, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, deltadog03 said: it appears the euro is slower bring precipitation in here. doesn't really get here until after midnight sat am...all others are showing friday afternoon. I think the euro is only have a little overrunning precipitation back toward TN and northern ms and al....euro really doesn't push much of that, but really starts to crank it once the low gets going. Still some big questions on what is going to happen. GFS builds in a high and delivers more cold down before hand, plus flatter so the cold can push. EURO starts that, but since its stronger overall, it starts tilting everything from NE to SW and the cold push stops until the low gets going. By that time, its almost game over for all outside of NGA MTNS, upstate and NC.....just how I see it right now. Funny thing is 24-36 hours ago I think it brought precip in faster than any model. Surface profiles for the Euro are always subject to questions. I've seen it severely bust on surface temps high and low. 850s are largely too warm in N GA through til late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: While we are in the lull in models runs, this provides a bit of perspective. All excited about 2" or even 10"? The Sierra Nevada mountains of CA are forecast to get over 200" of snow the next week. Chew on that for a second.... Ok I love snow, but even I have my limits. 200" is way too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, griteater said: Aftn Update from WPC: They like a 12z UKMet / NAM / Euro blend (along with 00z Euro Ens Mean)... PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST SAT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF EASTERN GULF TO EAST COAST. PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/NAM/ECMWF (REP. 00Z ECENS MEAN) CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE 19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...YET HAS TEMPERED TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN AND THE 12Z UKMET OVERALL PROVIDING SOME REDUCED SPREAD AND A FLATTER SOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE ON SAT. THE 12Z GEFS ALSO TRENDED FAVORABLY COMPARED TO THE GFS TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEARER COAST PRESENTATION. WHILE IT REMAINS FLAT COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THIS IS PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE TOWARD SOMETHING OF A MORE COMMON SOLUTION. THE 12Z UKMET MUCH LIKE THE 00Z AND THE 12Z NAM ARE MOST MIDDLE GROUND TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING WITH THE PREFERENCE. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET BEST REPRESENTS THE PREFERRED 00Z ECENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS THE SPREAD REMAINS MODERATE AND VARIABLE. To me this says they're pretty confident that the more amped solutions are the more correct ones and the operational GFS is too flat. Most of us have been saying that for a bit now. Hopefully this all means the GFS eventually gets some big boy pants on, amps up and joins the rest of us with a NW trend. Keep the nice cold profiles and join us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: To me this says they're pretty confident that the more amped solutions are the more correct ones and the operational GFS is too flat. Most of us have been saying that for a bit now. Hopefully this all means the GFS eventually gets some big boy pants on, amps up and joins the rest of us with a NW trend. Keep the nice cold profiles and join us! Below average confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 44 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Good post. Just looked at the Euro 850 temps here, it starts out 2C then is -1 by 12Z Saturday. With evap cooling and even just a small shift towards the much colder GFS, we would be right where we need to be for more snow than what the Euro shows since there is no lack of precip in any model..... exactly..and i don't think it's wishful thinking that the euro is maybe wrong here since there is some support for it. here's the 12z french. wouldn't take much to see those 0.75 liquid into the atlanta/athens area. It also trended colder for friday vs it's 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 0z models will be key tonight. I think whatever they show will probably be as close as it will be to the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 If we see a continued trend of more stream separation and a stronger southern vort, is it possible to see a trend back toward some of those big dog solutions we saw the other day, or is that setup pretty much off the table at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Ok I love snow, but even I have my limits. 200" is way too much. Not with 120mm wide skis on my feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If we see a continued trend of more stream separation and a stronger southern vort, is it possible to see a trend back toward some of those big dog solutions we saw the other day, or is that setup pretty much off the table at this point? A few days ago the GFS was really sharp with the wave when it was throwing out the big totals (20-30)...it was a big outlier with the sharpness at the time...seems like it would be difficult to get back there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 850mb low on the Euro tracks from Atlanta to just north of Columbia to Cape Hatteras The 250mb jet structure on the Euro is textbook for a Carolinas snow with us being in the right entrance of a strengthening jet streak over the Mid Atlantic...aiding in deep moisture and lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.