Welcome to American Weather

Supercane

Members
  • Content count

    565
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Supercane

  • Birthday 08/03/1989

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Raleigh, NC

Recent Profile Visitors

453 profile views
  1. Curiously, in the last time we had 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic, the locations and the letters look familiar...
  2. The models are obviously gung-ho on its intensity in the western Atlantic, but one thing I'd watch for down the road is ingestion of dry air. This has ample time for multiple ERCs, and as its size grows and it moves westward it'll be able to more easily pull in continental air. It's no coincidence that cat 3+ hurricane landfalls are very, very rare north of southern FL. Most CV hurricanes that peak early as a cat 4/5 and make it to the US east coast do so as large cat 2s (Floyd, Isabel, Frances being the best examples). Large, major hurricanes approaching the northern Gulf coast often face the same issue. And as I recall, models tend to significantly underestimate the degree of weakening these beasts experience prior to landfall, which should serve as a cautionary tale to the more extreme outputs here. I'm not saying a cat 3+ east coast landfall can't happen with this long-tracker -- Hugo proves that it's possible under the right conditions -- but don't sleep on climatology, which in this situation often holds even in the face of exaggerated model forecasts.
  3. I love reading everyone else's experiences in this thread, many of which mirror my own (like getting nervous about the clouds as it was underway, hoping like hell they'd dissipate as people said -- and then lo and behold, they vanished). So many things could've gone wrong, but didn't. Like LithiaWx said above, I'm still feeling that post-eclipse high. Seem to be alone on this, but I actually didn't look at the total eclipse very long (only peaked at it a few times in the 38 seconds of totality at my location). Part of me wishes I gazed just a little longer and not missed some details in the corona. But for whatever reason I just had to keep looking around too, to take in the surroundings in the short time granted. It was so alien! The "sunset" in all directions, the yellowish-green glow over the ocean, the way the lighting rapidly dimmed over the crowded summer beach scene -- all called to me just as much as the eclipse itself did. I will never forget any of it.
  4. I ended up on Pawley's Island, SC and, as many have already described, it was an incredible experience on so many levels. Seeing the first bit of moon covering the sun around 1:20 pm. Feeling the temperature drop. Witnessing the sun's corona during totality. Watching the lighting slowly dim -- from a normal summer beach day, to an eerie lighting that could only be described as unnatural (as if on a Hollywood movie set), to a sky that appeared to be late twilight with a faint sunset in all directions. Enjoying the moment with a festive crowd, everyone taking it all in. The below two pics come closest to capturing what it was like near totality (my gf took these and I am so glad she did, because I was too busy geeking out)
  5. Yeah the usual NW trend really screwed us over. The HRRR and NAM are interesting enough to keep watching in the very slim chance this overperforms -- but no reason to expect more than an inch of snow (and extra sleet) in the southern half of Wake given the issues you outlined, imo.
  6. I'm ashamed to admit it but the latest HRRR and NAM have sucked me back into this. We can still do it!
  7. I wouldn't necessarily say our climo has changed. We went through terrible snow droughts in 1990-1995, 1997-1999, and 2005-2008. We're just not very good at getting snow. Of course I have hit the bottle tonight to celebrate (read: forget) this event so perhaps I missed your sarcasm in that statement.
  8. Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?
  9. And always go with the warmest model. I've been pretty bearish on this storm for a while but still expected a couple inches of snow (or at least hoped for it). Now I'm not sure even that is doable, at least in and south of Cary/Raleigh. We never learn.
  10. Always, always fear the NW trend, even in the last 24 hours. 3 days out I want the jackpot in Wilmington.
  11. The NAM bothers me. But if I had to pick 1 model to not be on my side, it'd be the NAM.
  12. I had the exact same problem when I was in meteorology school at NCSU. I was so terrible at math, even with tutors, to the point that I had to either give up my decade-long dream of becoming a meteorologist and switch majors or carry the weight and risk flunking out of school altogether. It was a depressing predicament. I brainstormed other areas in which I could excel and ultimately made the difficult but pragmatic decision to pursue an English degree instead. To be honest, my college experience was much more enjoyable after that as I didn't have the stress of math to worry about and could focus on my skills as a copy-editor and writer. Liberal arts degrees get a lot of flack and your talents might be better suited for more technical fields, to your benefit. But as long as you get your foot in the door while you're in school (for example I worked part-time at the school newspaper and for a local author) you'll be prepared to enter the real world with a degree, any degree. And there's nothing stopping you from staying interested in meteorology, as I certainly still am. I can't offer guidance to your questions about IT-related jobs among meteorologists, but just wanted to let you know others have faced the same crossroads and have turned out okay -- well, for the most part. Whatever your decision, best of luck to you.
  13. It's not just one run though, it's been trending warmer for the past 3 runs now. Fortunately it's still the NAM and not worth that much, so I certainly hope the better models hold steady.
  14. Terrible trend for RDU and points SE. Through hr45 Johnston County is all rain and Wake County has severe mixing issues.
  15. Looks reasonable to me. If you average the 12z model snow totals and cut in half you end up with 2-4" over most of that area.