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About Supercane

  • Birthday 08/03/1989

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    Raleigh, NC

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  1. Yeah the usual NW trend really screwed us over. The HRRR and NAM are interesting enough to keep watching in the very slim chance this overperforms -- but no reason to expect more than an inch of snow (and extra sleet) in the southern half of Wake given the issues you outlined, imo.
  2. I'm ashamed to admit it but the latest HRRR and NAM have sucked me back into this. We can still do it!
  3. I wouldn't necessarily say our climo has changed. We went through terrible snow droughts in 1990-1995, 1997-1999, and 2005-2008. We're just not very good at getting snow. Of course I have hit the bottle tonight to celebrate (read: forget) this event so perhaps I missed your sarcasm in that statement.
  4. Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?
  5. And always go with the warmest model. I've been pretty bearish on this storm for a while but still expected a couple inches of snow (or at least hoped for it). Now I'm not sure even that is doable, at least in and south of Cary/Raleigh. We never learn.
  6. Always, always fear the NW trend, even in the last 24 hours. 3 days out I want the jackpot in Wilmington.
  7. The NAM bothers me. But if I had to pick 1 model to not be on my side, it'd be the NAM.
  8. I had the exact same problem when I was in meteorology school at NCSU. I was so terrible at math, even with tutors, to the point that I had to either give up my decade-long dream of becoming a meteorologist and switch majors or carry the weight and risk flunking out of school altogether. It was a depressing predicament. I brainstormed other areas in which I could excel and ultimately made the difficult but pragmatic decision to pursue an English degree instead. To be honest, my college experience was much more enjoyable after that as I didn't have the stress of math to worry about and could focus on my skills as a copy-editor and writer. Liberal arts degrees get a lot of flack and your talents might be better suited for more technical fields, to your benefit. But as long as you get your foot in the door while you're in school (for example I worked part-time at the school newspaper and for a local author) you'll be prepared to enter the real world with a degree, any degree. And there's nothing stopping you from staying interested in meteorology, as I certainly still am. I can't offer guidance to your questions about IT-related jobs among meteorologists, but just wanted to let you know others have faced the same crossroads and have turned out okay -- well, for the most part. Whatever your decision, best of luck to you.
  9. It's not just one run though, it's been trending warmer for the past 3 runs now. Fortunately it's still the NAM and not worth that much, so I certainly hope the better models hold steady.
  10. Terrible trend for RDU and points SE. Through hr45 Johnston County is all rain and Wake County has severe mixing issues.
  11. Looks reasonable to me. If you average the 12z model snow totals and cut in half you end up with 2-4" over most of that area.
  12. Given that we live in the South and are used to disappointment, my rule (FWIW) is to take all the model runs within the last 12 hours, cut each of their snow totals in half, and then go with the lowest one. Half of the 12z GFS in my area is 1", so that is my RDU call for now. The potential obviously exists for more, but we're 3 days out. A lot can still go wrong. Does anyone have the 12z UKMET qpf/snowfall through 96hr by any chance? Not going to lie, the 72hr panel posted earlier was tantalizing.
  13. Interesting post. I plotted the 500mb relative humidity in the Main Development Region / Caribbean Sea (5-20N, 10-85W) from 1948 to 2015. For whatever reason, the trend is clear.
  14. Larry Cosgrove will be wrong, as usual. We are behind in ACE. Using named storms as the metric to determine seasonal activity is meaningless since it includes short-lived, weak storms -- many of which probably would not have been classified without the technology we have today.
  15. Thanks for the feedback guys. I made an animated gif to more easily compare how the QBO affects the pattern for each ENSO state. Neutral/La Nina: El Nino: