Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM is a good hit for the NW Piedmont and it's surface low track is more NW than previous runs. It's also much quicker than the other guidance. Precip is confined to ERN NC by 12Z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Much better run for upstate sc as well. It is still the nam but earlier it was basically a dusting to an inch. Now its close to 3". Thanks. I'll gladly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, superjames1992 said: The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas. We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO. We'll see if they turn for the better tonight. The 21z SREF plumes are somewhat improved compared to prior runs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: lol i know good and well that picture is not from Atlanta. Considering the single day record for ATL is 7", and that was in 1904...I'd say you're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: The NAM is a good hit for the NW Piedmont and it's surface low track is more NW than previous runs. It's also much quicker than the other guidance. The faster timing by 10 to 12 hrs is what causes rn snow line futher n and w. Hopefully it'll slow down a notch with all other guidacne for southern folks on fringe temp wise. Best nam hit yet here in triad by far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 21Z SREF for RDU has a mean snowfall between 1 - 1.5" The problem is the delayed changeover to snow from the initial rain/mix. Is anyone else seeing this delayed cold as a concern? I don't see it getting here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: How does the Triangle do? Better or worse than 18z NAM Just looking at the precip type map I thought we did pretty good. Areas south and east of Raleigh would initially be mixed with rain but even they would quickly change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 21Z SREF for RDU has a mean snowfall between 1 - 1.5" The problem is the delayed changeover to snow from the initial rain/mix. Is anyone else seeing this delayed cold as a concern? I don't see it getting here fast enough. Yes. It's going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 21Z SREF for RDU has a mean snowfall between 1 - 1.5" The problem is the delayed changeover to snow from the initial rain/mix. Is anyone else seeing this delayed cold as a concern? I don't see it getting here fast enough. Jon mentioned earlier he found the SREF plumes not really all that reliable until 36hrs out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: 21Z SREF for RDU has a mean snowfall between 1 - 1.5" The problem is the delayed changeover to snow from the initial rain/mix. Is anyone else seeing this delayed cold as a concern? I don't see it getting here fast enough. I dunno CMC/GFS have it plenty cold, heck its in the low to mid 20's and snowing like hell for most of central/eastern NC by Sat morning thats pretty insane for us....evem the Ukie and Euro are cold.....we might start off as a little rain Friday but by midnight or so Friday night its gonna be all snow for RDU over to PGV.....or at least thats what the models show, even the NAM has us snowing and low 20's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, PackGrad05 said: 21Z SREF for RDU has a mean snowfall between 1 - 1.5" The problem is the delayed changeover to snow from the initial rain/mix. Is anyone else seeing this delayed cold as a concern? I don't see it getting here fast enough. Your only seeing delays of cold on nam and sref, think they use common data input. If you see it on other guidance, esp foreign then I'd start raising eyebrow. But not much wiggle room when your in jackpot zone. Remember those who end up with the highest totals can smell the rain while it's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Just looking at the precip type map I thought we did pretty good. Areas south and east of Raleigh would initially be mixed with rain but even they would quickly change over. Thanks Falls. Figured the NW jog might increase our totals as they were higher east of Wake Co on earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 21Z SREF for RDU has a mean snowfall between 1 - 1.5" The problem is the delayed changeover to snow from the initial rain/mix. Is anyone else seeing this delayed cold as a concern? I don't see it getting here fast enough. NAM snow map from latest run increasing every run.....this is a solid hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This cold air is moving from the W/NW...over the apps. The dense air could have difficulty moving in as quickly as the models project. Usually our cold air is coming from north with no orographic interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: NAM snow map from latest run increasing every run.....this is a solid hit for us. Thant shows more snow for GA than the Pivotal maps- in any case think it is too dry for GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BassPro Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: NAM snow map from latest run increasing every run.....this is a solid hit for us. Good grief....it's looking like we can stick a fork in Central Bama for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trevor1621 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Everything I've seen has been looking like it's going to be a good one for Hampton roads. (Not saying that too loud with fingers still crossed..)Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM showing more snow in Macon than ATL ? I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: This cold air is moving from the W/NW...over the apps. The dense air could have difficulty moving in as quickly as the models project. Usually our cold air is coming from north with no orographic interference. I could be wrong but the latest GFS had a high up in the NE. If we get a couple of those to pop there shouldn't be a problem. Most hasn't had one though but it's been really cold on the GFS/EURO/UKmet at go time. I'll go with those. If they're wrong though, yeah that would stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Thant shows more snow for GA than the Pivotal maps- in any case think it is too dry for GA and SC Shows 1.5" here north of ATL. I think thats better than the last NAM run but I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: My head is spinning! Here are a couple things to think about, especially for the upstate and NEGA peeps. This storm seems to have sped up quite a bit. At first it was Sat pm into Sat night. Now it has trended to Fri pm to Fri night, about 24 hours faster. GSP is talking about this starting as rain now, whereas we weren't thinking that a couple of days ago. That will certainly eat into totals. It also seems to be a fast mover. In these type of setup, particularly with late bloomers, eastern areas are going to fare better than us (plus we have lower level temps to worry about now, as usual). My advice is to take these GFS maps cautiously and temper expectations until the last flake has fallen. In those areas, we have seen over and over where cold is delayed in making it over the mountains, moisture is chewed up, and the models try to "see" wraparound snow that climo says will never reach our area. Be careful if you are hanging your bets on evap cooling, upslope enhancement, or wrap around bands. Living in the upstate for over 30 years, I have rarely seen any of those deliver in winter weather events. This is an excellent post. I know mets won't like to hear this...but sometimes experience is a better tool than models. That's why I think GSP is right to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM Para is a WNC and I40 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here is the map at H5 from the launches tonight at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Shows 1.5" here north of ATL. I think thats better than the last NAM run but I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, SnowNiner said: I could be wrong but the latest GFS had a high up in the NE. If we get a couple of those to pop there shouldn't be a problem. Most hasn't had one though but it's been really cold on the GFS/EURO/UKmet at go time. I'll go with those. If they're wrong though, yeah that would stink. Yeah has a 1040 up over the northern plains and a 1030 NE of the GL's, the cold is legit and deep and for once really isnt going to be a problem.....ratios look better than average too so figure 13-15:1 so even places looking at .25" QPF could end up with 4-5" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: NAM Para is a WNC and I40 special. post it or link it. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I guess that's the current NAM run. Still shows an inch here. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: post it or link it. thanks http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I guess that's the current NAM run. Still shows an inch here. I'll take it. I won't..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km That looks strong for just about the entire state of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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