mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 As the echoes started to move north to south in the late afternoon, and even built back se to nw, I was waiting for the magic to happen. Looked like a perfect set up for a heavy band to form w and n of CON, especially since the storm was intensifying. But then you could see the intense radar echoes consolidating to our east and ne, and that was that. I gave up around 6pm. Still, 8 inches of snow and around 25" in December is nothing to complain about. This is a very different winter than the last few, and I think the best is yet to come for most of us. Also, thanks to so many on here, this was a great learning in terms of how to use the models. I think we'll see that sort of discussion many more times this season, and I will probably have a more realistic sense of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I know this is a gross oversimplification--and pretty obvious to most--but if you're forecasting a track over SE NH/NE MA and then it tracks over CC, you're going to have a large forecast error for snow totals, regardless of the details. That was a 75-100 mile error. Now take the heaviest banding and shift that northwest 75 miles and voila, the nw zones get hit hard. Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but we must have a VERY accurate idea on where this will track before trying to figure out anything else. If not, you basically risk making an error that gets propagated and exacerbated when forecasting the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 hours ago, dendrite said: Wow....amazing it was 10:1 there given the rates and how far north you are. QPF bomb. I'm majorly jealous. I haven't had one of these since moving here (last one I recall is March 2001) and even after waking up yesterday morning I thought it was still mine. Alas the models pulled the football from me when I was about to kick the crap out of it. Congrats to you Mainers though. Those are some wackadoo totals. If I'd measured right after the snow ended, the stack might've been taller by an inch or so. Oddly, my last big storm here, Jan. 27-28, 2015 (the one I missed, except for getting to clear the driveway) was also a qpf monster - 2.17" for 20" snowfall. Much different event, though, as that earlier one was a true blizzard at single-digit temps. The consistency was like sand, and quite difficult to walk thru as one's feet tried to slide sideways. Last night's storm had only light winds until near the end and came at mid-upper 20s. The snow would pack well, so well that I had to hand-shovel where I'd walked earlier to get the snow core, as the snowblower would just climb over the packed footprints. I did not stay up past about 10:45, but based on when things finished, it appears that we received 17" accum in the 7 hours 8P-3A. Probably some hours with 3"+ in that span. BHB is Mid-Coast. I'd go with DE starting at Belfast. I think you might be a bit turned around, as BHB is 40 miles east of Belfast. IMO, midcoast is about Brunswick to Camden (or perhaps Belfast though I consider that to be Penobscot Bay), and DE Maine starts at Mt. Desert Island. Some would push the line back west to about Castine. Of course, such designations are just as fuzzy as defining SNE/CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, tamarack said: If I'd measured right after the snow ended, the stack might've been taller by an inch or so. Oddly, my last big storm here, Jan. 27-28, 2015 (the one I missed, except for getting to clear the driveway) was also a qpf monster - 2.17" for 20" snowfall. Much different event, though, as that earlier one was a true blizzard at single-digit temps. The consistency was like sand, and quite difficult to walk thru as one's feet tried to slide sideways. Last night's storm came at mid-upper 20s and would pack well, so well that I had to hand-shovel where I'd walked earlier to get the snow core, as the snowblower would just climb over the packed footprints. I did not stay up past about 10:45, but based on when things finished, it appears that we received 17" accum in the 7 hours 8P-3A. Probably some hours with 3"+ in that span. BHB is Mid-Coast. I'd go with DE starting at Belfast. I think you might be a bit turned around, as BHB is 40 miles east of Belfast. IMO, DE Maine starts at Mt. Desert Island, though some would push the line back to about Castine. Oops--I thought BHB was Boothbay. What is BHB? I love Castine--came close to moving there when I was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Oops--I thought BHB was Boothbay. What is BHB? Bar Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Bar Harbah (And you can't get there from here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Dan76 said: Bar Harbah Bah hahbah. That's better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Guess I'll post it in here since powderfreak is posting upslope obs....but some pretty viscous squalls moving through central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 There's a snowblower in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Our Subaru Forester, well buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It wasn't an easy storm to forecast...that's for sure. Though I'm still a bit surprised that your area didn't pull solid double digits. I figured your area up to around Ossipee was pretty safe for that...the latter still did well (think they scored around 15"), but that western zone of the commahead really got compressed east and it cost your area a bit. I suppose the compact nature of this should have been a little more of a red flag for big totals in areas further west, but it was hard to really rely on that, especially since some of the model guidance was producing mid-level tracks pretty far west until the last possible second. This was a pretty poorly modeled storm overall...I'm sure the explosive and mesoscale nature of the development contributed significantly to the model errors. The Euro was by far the most consistent and correct model...but as you mentioned, it still had its warts in this one. He missed it by maybe 20 miles. I agree, I thought a little mid level magic would happen there but it compressed east last minute. Some of those high res runs were a little wild though. I don't think anybody bought the low crossing IZG like some of the runs had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Not sure if this is still the right thread but just had a 35dbz+ squall move overhead. Vis got down to an 1/8. Lots of very heavily rimed convective flakes in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Time sensitive....but nice squall on the webcam: http://www.holycross.edu/webcams/linden-lane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Guess I'll post it in here since powderfreak is posting upslope obs....but some pretty viscous squalls moving through central MA. Yup. Near whiteout on Rte 2 in Westminster. Lots of graupel in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 awesome squall! Can't remember the last time I watched literally a wall of snow move towards mby. At one point there was flurries a couple hundred feet down the street and near white-out conditions a couple hundred feet in the other direction. Also constant 30-40 mph gusts for the duration of the squall (about 5 minutes). Despite finishing with only .3", I'd say this was one of the most impressive snow squalls in at least a couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: awesome squall! Can't remember the last time I watched literally a wall of snow move towards mby. At one point there was flurries a couple hundred feet down the street and near white-out conditions a couple hundred feet in the other direction. Also constant 30-40 mph gusts for the duration of the squall (about 5 minutes). Despite finishing with only .3", I'd say this was one of the most impressive snow squalls in at least a couple years. Wow was a wall nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: awesome squall! Can't remember the last time I watched literally a wall of snow move towards mby. At one point there was flurries a couple hundred feet down the street and near white-out conditions a couple hundred feet in the other direction. Also constant 30-40 mph gusts for the duration of the squall (about 5 minutes). Despite finishing with only .3", I'd say this was one of the most impressive snow squalls in at least a couple years. Yeah, squall just roared through Framingham. Awesome! Wish it lasted longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Looked awesome for a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, geo1 said: Looked awesome for a few Sun out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: #EasternNNE winter FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 hours ago, Amped said: From the NWs GRAY facebook page. Looks like a larger area of 20+ than anyone expected. Ooh, looks like my 6.5" in central VT made it onto the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 second all the squall posts, fully covered roads in the Pelham, maybe 3/4"? Measured 5" new at the WFCR broadcast tower above 1200' before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 locally this reminded a bit of Thanksgiving 2014. Snow caked on trees, similar elevation gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Great squall a few minutes ago. Quick road covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 This was early this afternoon on Rte 2 in Gardner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Quick 3-4" today in squalls. Storm total for the mountain sitting around 11". Looks like around 7" will do it in town. Jay Peak up to 22" and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 There's a snowblower in there somewhere.That's what I said about my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: That's what I said about my car I'm glad our Forester is fairly tall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well sounds like you got the lower end of the range anyways. Thought you'd do better, but the subby hole, marginal low levels, and later development sort of added to the lower values. Did better than 3" that you were afraid of only getting. ASH did a get a local screw zone. They are pretty much surrounded by higher totals, and it looks like it is mostly elevation based. The warm air just hung tough there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks like the top #s are just to the W of Lake Sebago. Everything came together perfectly there. Mid level forcing, low level forcing over the coastal front, terrain forcing (you do have over 1000 feet elevation in the western parts of those two counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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