CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The 00z GFS I think from yesterday had the 700 low closing off NE of IZG. The euro had it east near PWM where it happened. I think the euro in the time of need really did well in maine. The GFS crapped itself in the last 36 hrs. Euro in the 2-3 days prior was too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No. BUT that can often indicate the globals are too far SE. Basically, in general, one should expect the NAM to be further NW than the globals. If it isn't it can sometimes be used as a red flag that the globals are too far SE. Without the midlevel support for NH we should have known better. SW ME jack was a result of a lot of things... Low level forcing, mid level, frigging everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: The 00z GFS I think from yesterday had the 700 low closing off NE of IZG. The euro had it east near PWM where it happened. I think the euro in the time of need really did well in maine. The GFS crapped itself in the last 36 hrs. Euro in the 2-3 days prior was too far west. Can't name the last time the GFS has done anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: GFS was terrible here, It had me seeing mostly rain, i did not receive any, The Nam had rain here as well, But it was not far off with the qpf, But that's the GFS its bias with BL temps Don't get me wrong, I agree that the euro had the best forecast as a whole for days. No model is going to get every detail perfectly right. They're just guidance. The euro had the best clue as to how the system was going to evolve...it was just a little too far west. Unfortunately for me that was the difference between 8" and 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: GFS was terrible here, It had me seeing mostly rain, i did not receive any, The Nam had rain here as well, But it was not far off with the qpf, But that's the GFS its bias with BL temps That's the thing. I use the GFS only for track/intensity, UL development etc. Using it explicitly to determined RN/SN/mix line and snow totals in marginal setups is an absolute no-no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Don't get me wrong, I agree that the euro had the best forecast as a whole for days. No model is going to get every detail perfectly right. They're just guidance. The euro had the best clue as to how the system was going to evolve...it was just a little too far west. Unfortunately for me that was the difference between 8" and 18". No, I agree, That's why its best to blend because of the bias factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No. BUT that can often indicate the globals are too far NW. Basically, in general, one should expect the NAM to be further NW than the globals. If it isn't it can sometimes be used as a red flag that the globals are too far NW. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's the thing. I use the GFS only for track/intensity, UL development etc. Using it explicitly to determined RN/SN/mix line and snow totals in marginal setups is an absolute no-no. I had posted that WPC track map 2 days back that had this going over the outer cape into DE maine and you made the comment that that track was reasonable as i recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The GFS really was way too warm in ME too.I just looked at 950 temps from the 6z run. Oye Vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Looks like snow squall inbound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The GFS really was way too warm in ME too.I just looked at 950 temps from the 6z run. Oye Vey. The NAM was a well, It had me at +2.5c................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 One storm and we are slightly over 50% of climo and its December...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: I had posted that WPC track map 2 days back that had this going over the outer cape into DE maine and you made the comment that that track was reasonable as i recall Yes. I guess we can debate "DE maine" but I was pretty well set on this being east of Portland ME--but definitely not east of Bangor's longitude. I noticed pretty quickly that the mesos were having this system bend back wayyy to quickly, based on the upper levels. The track from CC to east of Portland always made most sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yes. I guess we can debate "DE maine" but I was pretty well set on this being east of Portland ME--but definitely not east of Bangor's longitude. Well BHB was where it looked to track, I think the Euro had it there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 #NNE winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: #NNE winter You had been on that wagon for several weeks based on how the pattern looked, I had a good hunch when i could see where the gradient was and then were getting SWFE type storms that it was going to be favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You had been on that wagon for several weeks based on how the pattern looked I half do it to troll Kevin....but pretty clear it favors you guys. I think it gets more favorable here after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Well BHB was where it looked to track, I think the Euro had it there as well BHB is Mid-Coast. I'd go with DE starting at Belfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Well BHB was where it looked to track, I think the Euro had it there as well Yea that's further east than I thought. But in general, I liked the WPC's forecast, and that turned out to be a very good one for track/intensity. That evolution also said (implicitly) that the northwest folks were out of the game for big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Great discussion in here about the fine details of the models. How much did Portland end up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Great discussion in here about the fine details of the models. How much did Portland end up with? 7.7" at the jetport, They had a lot of rain early on before it flipped once the slp got cranking in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: One storm and we are slightly over 50% of climo and its December...........lol Let's just hope we don't get any big rainers in the near future. I was surprised how much PWM ended up with. Not sure down by the water, but up here at work, near Riverside golf course, looks like 8-9". Wonder what PWMan got as he was raining till ~9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 7.7" at the jetport, They had a lot of rain early on before it flipped once the slp got cranking in the GOM Thanks. Looks like the coast did better then the models thought they would. Wish I was in Booth Bay overlooking the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 JUST WANT TO SAY THANK YOU TO , Coastal wx, 40/70,moneypitmike, dendrite, dryslot,baroclinc zone(for his humor!)met from Portland wx,domnh, chris(nas. met) and others, you all said hang in there it will change over, after torrential rains last night, before the rain I say a good inch, then out plowing, I would say another 4-5", I know I'm a pain in the A**, but you guys help me plan for snow removal operations etc, Happy New year to all..................I wait for the next one, and hopefully cash in better then this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, 512high said: JUST WANT TO SAY THANK YOU TO , Coastal wx, 40/70,moneypitmike, dendrite, dryslot,baroclinc zone(for his humor!)met from Portland wx,domnh, chris(nas. met) and others, you all said hang in there it will change over, after torrential rains last night, before the rain I say a good inch, then out plowing, I would say another 4-5", I know I'm a pain in the A**, but you guys help me plan for snow removal operations etc, Happy New year to all..................I wait for the next one, and hopefully cash in better then this one! Just put the fisher xv in scoop and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, 512high said: JUST WANT TO SAY THANK YOU TO , Coastal wx, 40/70,moneypitmike, dendrite, dryslot,baroclinc zone(for his humor!)met from Portland wx,domnh, chris(nas. met) and others, you all said hang in there it will change over, after torrential rains last night, before the rain I say a good inch, then out plowing, I would say another 4-5", I know I'm a pain in the A**, but you guys help me plan for snow removal operations etc, Happy New year to all..................I wait for the next one, and hopefully cash in better then this one! You get the the triple award for this subforum. Running neck and neck with James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2" in the past hour. Nuking. Visibility 1/4 to 1/8 sustained. When the wind blows it goes to as close to zero vis as you can get in the parking lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Just put the fisher xv in scoop and enjoy funny you say that, just had a 8'6" V installed on Tuesday, have to get use to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You get the the triple award for this subforum. Running neck and neck with James. great......(lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, 512high said: funny you say that, just had a 8'6" V installed on Tuesday, have to get use to that! Snow flap and curb guards will make it that much more enjoyable. Best plow I ever had. The ability to throw snow and control it is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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