dendrite Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Metherb just burnt down his sugar shack after that comment. -23F at Maple Hollow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 GYX would do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GYX would do it Only mekster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Not sure what the HRRRX is smoking, but just over 0.25" QPF is spitting out 6-8 inches of snow in parts of NH. Strange in and of itself, but especially so when the HRRR states its snow ratio is 10:1 in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not sure what the HRRRX is smoking, but just over 0.25" QPF is spitting out 6-8 inches of snow in parts of NH. Strange in and of itself, but especially so when the HRRR states its snow ratio is 10:1 in the model. Sorry, I ran it from my server at the lake cottage. I'll fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Sorry, I ran it from my server at the lake cottage. I'll fix it. It's tough trying to keep up with the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not sure what the HRRRX is smoking, but just over 0.25" QPF is spitting out 6-8 inches of snow in parts of NH. Strange in and of itself, but especially so when the HRRR states its snow ratio is 10:1 in the model. lol that might be good enough to issue a winter storm warning in the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol that might be good enough to issue a winter storm warning in the Dakotas. To add to the mysteries of this forecast, I'm seeing WPC has literally zero snow accumulations for southern NH and coastal western ME tonight/tomorrow. Whatever model blend they are using for snow amounts, they should ask for their money back. I know they are way too dependent on the SREF (like 20-25%) members. Not a chance they can consider taking over some forecast responsibility from local offices if this is going to be the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Local shallow ponds are skating nicely where shoveled. Great to be out there this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I honestly don't even know if you could figure out the answer, but this could be one of the longest lead time watches in NWS history. The only thing that would have any logic for it is that it falls on the holiday weekend possibly and folks are traveling to the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The only thing that would have any logic for it is that it falls on the holiday weekend possibly and folks are traveling to the area? I mean it is Christmas Day, but at the same time there is a huge risk of crying wolf there. Would anyone be surprised if this became Aberdeen's blizzard instead of Rapid City? I wouldn't. Those type of track adjustments (not to mention timing) are not uncommon, especially with that huge data void called the Pacific to the west. With social media and briefing packages that we do now, it's not like the word wouldn't get out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean it is Christmas Day, but at the same time there is a huge risk of crying wolf there. Would anyone be surprised if this became Aberdeen's blizzard instead of Rapid City? I wouldn't. Those type of track adjustments (not to mention timing) are not uncommon, especially with that huge data void called the Pacific to the west. With social media and briefing packages that we do now, it's not like the word wouldn't get out there. I don't agree with it either, But guessing that may be the only possible reason they would post a watch this far out, I can't find any other logic for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Maybe I'm just turning into a curmudgeon in my old age, but there isn't much in here about why the watch was issued or much confidence information. I see some pressure gradient mentioned for winds, and that model QPF supports snowfall accumulations, and the word likely regarding winds. That's it. No mention of the holiday and travel being impacted. No mention of ensemble guidance. No mention of potential red flags in the forecast. GFS/ECWMF/GEM develop closed upper low across the central Rockies Saturday night, then low lifts into central/eastern South Dakota by late Sunday. Meanwhile, deep surface low moves from northeast Colorado into eastern South Dakota, producing a tight pressure gradient across western South Dakota - with 45+ mph winds likely. QPF/Snow ratios support 2 to 5 inches of snow across the plains, with 5 to 8 inches possible across the Black Hills with some upslope enhancement. Given snow accumulation and strength of winds, there is good potential for blizzard conditions on the western South Dakota plains. Have issued a Blizzard Watch for much of the western SD plains, along with a Winter Storm Watch for the northern and central Black Hills including the Bear Lodge Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I'm really trying to understand the influences on the structure of the stratosphere and how the structure influences the troposphere and I have zero clue how to read these sort of maps. For anyone who understands them is there any way you would be able to explain what you're looking at here and just give some sort of insight into how to read them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 So basically that is a temperature map with height over time....averaged over 60-90 north latitude (top right hand corner it says zonal mean 60,90). You can see how cold the stratosphere is (generally above 150-200mb) in January and February and it warms as you head into spring. No surprise as once winter starts losing grip, the stratospheric polar vortex starts to break down. But notice how a couple periods in February and March you see warmer temperatures from the mesosphere and thermosphere start to descend into the stratosphere. These are "top down" warming events. They can be triggers for SSWs (sudden stratospheric warming events). At at the very bottom of course is closer to ground level so you see the warm temps there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: So basically that is a temperature map with height over time....averaged over 60-90 north latitude (top right hand corner it says zonal mean 60,90). You can see how cold the stratosphere is (generally above 150-200mb) in January and February and it warms as you head into spring. No surprise as once winter starts losing grip, the stratospheric polar vortex starts to break down. But notice how a couple periods in February and March you see warmer temperatures from the mesosphere and thermosphere start to descend into the stratosphere. These are "top down" warming events. They can be triggers for SSWs (sudden stratospheric warming events). At at the very bottom of course is closer to ground level so you see the warm temps there too. This is perfect! Thanks so much. I'm pretty sure I can use what you've said here to further learn more from these graphics!! Tough to find stuff online outside of research papers which gets into math that's still little above my head...though I understand the terminology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Snowing in Andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Snowing in Andover. dry as a bone down here (Cambridge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 We got a few flakes. Not even a coating really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 snowy morning. steady light snow about an inch on the ground. Looks like good snow growth. Goal is to get the snow at the stake back up to 10. It is just over 8 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: snowy morning. steady light snow about an inch on the ground. Looks like good snow growth. Goal is to get the snow at the stake back up to 10. It is just over 8 now You'll do it. This will be a nice event for NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 looks like the initial warm advection band moved through and the question is how heavy it is the rest of the morn. Plenty of radar returns to the west. It is real nice up here now. You have to get north of Concord to see the deep winter look. After today I will likely have had 2 6"ers, 2 3"ers and a 1"er in less than3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just a light coating here. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 .25" so at least it brightens up the crust on top of the snow pack. If you looked at radar you'd think it was still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Surprised at the coating on the upper cape last night. Which day was that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 14 minutes ago, amarshall said: Surprised at the coating on the upper cape last night. Which day was that from? The Dawn Awakening James OES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Light snow--albeit with large flakes--has recommenced here in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: .25" so at least it brightens up the crust on top of the snow pack. If you looked at radar you'd think it was still snowing. Looked like some pretty heavy radar echoes down your way, might be some dry air below the VT/MA border maybe. Nice wintry appeal here, just about 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Over performer here. Moderate snow and closing in on an inch. WOOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 A nice burst of heavy snow, really large flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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