jbenedet Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 You'd has to be pretty damn foolish if you think the nam will outperform the storm's interaction with the upstream longwave trough. This dynamic the euro will dominate. Where I believe the nam has been scoring points is on the UL height rises due to its ability to resolve mesoscale convection. But that said, that change in H500 on the euro is pretty damn important, and one aspect where the euro is probably wayyyy ahead of the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM adjusted weaker, but rap says it was still too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 High Res Nam about 10 mb weaker but it was an outlier at 12z with a 965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Schools shouldn't make decisions until the morning. I don't understand this absurd trend to making decisions the night before for storms--we all know how storms can bust for better or worse. Of course, these are days when schools close because of the heat. 5 am up here, Don't know why some would call it the night before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 You did ok with this Friday despite my doubts even though this is kinda similar in that we are seeing nw shifts inside 36hr or whatever....and its a much more robust and powerful setup. I still have my doubts being so far away from the low, that precip shield will be more banded in nature with subsidence in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It barely changed..... The precip shield is a little worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12-18" is a good bet for Plymouth and Barnstable counties, plus the surface low looks to be tucking into the NC coastline more than modeled. SHort range models will be best served for this forecast. NAM is of no concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Model noise. Qpf went west actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nice little eye-like feature starting to show on wv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It has been interesting how the recent runs of multiple models have had the western edge fill in as the coastal storm moves away. Wonder if they are onto something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Schools shouldn't make decisions until the morning. I don't understand this absurd trend to making decisions the night before for storms--we all know how storms can bust for better or worse. Of course, these are days when schools close because of the heat. Yup. 86.5F closed schools. Flurries close schools but 7-8" during the day doesn't (Gardner MA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM is still a 6-10 deal for eastern areas so not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It has been interesting how the recent runs of multiple models have had the western edge fill in as the coastal storm moves away. Wonder if they are onto something....Yeah it's the interaction with the northern s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Model noise time. I wouldn't feel too confident west of ORH. I'm still nervous at BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Model noise time. I wouldn't feel too confident west of ORH. I'm still nervous at BOS Getting the EURO on board at 12z was a big improvement. E of ORH is fine for at least warning snows IMO. W of ORH, confidence decreases, but I still think they get plowable (quite easily too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The only difference is in the initial punch tomorrow morning. 4km nam still signals halfway decent snows for a lot of folks thanks to that long fetch later tomorrow and tomorrow night. That is flying under the radar and could be the difference between pedestrian and memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Incredible pressure falls of nearly 3mb per hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 HRRR is rather unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah for some reason mesos are backing off tomorrow's push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 HRRR is rather unimpressive.Is it...meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Getting the EURO on board at 12z was a big improvement. E of ORH is fine for at least warning snows IMO. W of ORH, confidence decreases, but I still think they get plowable (quite easily too). There's an awful lot of SNE that's west of ORH a good portion of which will likely not need a plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ha, this place is hilarious sometime. I'm sure we'd all be talking about "model noise" if the NAM crushed again. Instead we've had incremental ticks west, and now we're looking like perhaps we may have hit the ceiling, and potentially even overstepped what's possible with a storm that far away. The 18z NAM looks closer to model consensus, and the 12z NAM, which BOX says their forecast was "heavily based on" looks like the outlier. I'm intrigued to see whether the western edge of warnings comes down at some point, as the NAM looks nowhere near as bullish. Or maybe they'll say its model noise too, depending on the rest of guidance. Story of this winter with these tight gradients and late corrections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Incredible pressure falls of nearly 3mb per hour: Hatteras dropped .1 inch, in 1 hr., from 29.69 at 2pm, to 29.59 at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 When you look at the NWS regional map, it's easy to tell which office has been getting repeatedly blitzed. BOX is going big everywhere. Advisories all the way to the far NW. ALB, by comparison, is not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's kind of impressive how quickly the NAM flipped the mood in here. The wind was in the shoulder of our sail, now it feels like we're begging for flurries. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow, one run comes east and everyone is ready to jump ship, please! This storm is tucked in closer to SE NC coastline this is coming closer to the benchmark than the NAM shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's not that bad Hoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's kind of impressive how quickly the NAM flipped the mood in here. The wind was in the shoulder of our sail, now it feels like we're begging for flurries. Meh. Hoth, Where are you located? Obviously not on a planet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The mesos clearly overestimated the rapid deepening that they thought would take place immediately off the coast. I don't think we see any more NW trend of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 I still see it as a moderate event with localized jacks in oes areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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