SnowMan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Does nashua remain in 3-5" or is that changing?? That's a good starting point...maybe lower end of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That would be 4-6" up here on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Look again its definitely west im sure the precip shield is further west. I trust the good folks on here. but im saying h5 and sfc low is identical to 12z saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That's a good starting point...maybe lower end of that ok..ty(hoping for a tick this way more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 not sure why Euro has so much guidance inertia (probably a strength at times), but I do think it's behind here. it flinched last night and only continues with incremental changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Does nashua remain in 3-5" or is that changing?? Watch for banding . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Watch for banding . ok ty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Iceberg, look at how H5 is larger on the feb 7th run. So the height lines extend back to the northwest almost into SNE. That allows a further northwest precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Watch for banding . Yeah, someone could get into some good banding further NW than progged. My bet would be just NW of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 out of y'all's jurisdiction, but any insight on totals for the mid Hudson Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 If this was on the BM or inside it would be snowing back to MI..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 HRRR looks good early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Iceberg, look at how H5 is larger on the feb 7th run. So the height lines extend back to the northwest almost into SNE. That allows a further northwest precip shield. AHA...thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 im sure the precip shield is further west. I trust the good folks on here. but im saying h5 and sfc low is identical to 12z saturday. The centers are similar, but the system is deepening and maturing faster...stronger h5 and sfc lows. It's able to push that deformation banding further to the NW. Scott brought up a good point about how this banding evolves over New England...do we get one strong band that pushes way NW with more unorganized banding further SE as it occludes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the radar down south and matching it up with the 12z GFS this storms precip is well west of where the GFS has it at this hour I don't mean to be a Debbie. I thought this too when I first looked at the radar but upon closer examination, the GFS didn't have much QPF west of the hook in the northern border of SC. Radar doesn't show much west of that hook or north into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I would watch for something late week as well as the PV drops in from canada, Certainly could see some squalls and upslope in the higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The heaviest precip was off the coast, It is well inland down there on radar The GFS has .5-1.5" liquid over southern SC by 21z this afternoon. The edge of the heavier precip. on radar looks slightly NW of the GFS chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I don't mean to be a Debbie. I thought this too when I first looked at the radar but upon closer examination, the GFS didn't have much QPF west of the hook in the northern border of SC. Radar doesn't show much west of that hook or north into VA.6hr precip totals...just compare to the 12z 6hr progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yikes Chris this ramped up big time I'll be pulling an all nighter. Mostly because that's what Uncle Sam wants, but at least I'll have something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll be pulling an all nighter. Mostly because that's what Uncle Sam wants, but at least I'll have something to look at. PLEASE keep us posted, my team isn't in the Super Bowl, i will watch the game, with laptop, checking here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll be pulling an all nighter. Mostly because that's what Uncle Sam wants, but at least I'll have something to look at. Short term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Short term? Nope. That might be a good thing though after that last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nope. That might be a good thing though after that last storm. Well you would not have been alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll be pulling an all nighter. Mostly because that's what Uncle Sam wants, but at least I'll have something to look at.This is another one that will sneak up on folks. Was listening to the car radio a few minutes ago and heard a forecast of "maybe a few snow showers" tomorrow night and Tuesday. Obviously we're not jackpotting from this, but it looks like it'll be higher-impact than many assumed - especially along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'll be sure to post some goodies. Timing depends on how close the game is though. But I'll be interested to dive into AWIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 6hr precip totals...just compare to the 12z 6hr progs. You're right, the distribution of heavier QPF is definitely NW of progs. But the extent of the shield is only slightly west of progs, if at all. I'll be very interested to see how this propagates up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not to be curmudgeonly .. but, really what's going on (as is in the snap-shot of guidance) is that we are exceptionally lucky - if impact from this is your desire... The mid level circulations are absolutely mammoth in areal circumvallate by the time this beast gets to our latitude... so much so that the very last vestiges of the warm TROWAL has spiraled enormously/unusually far from the centroid circulation. That also collocates spatially with two aspects that actually heighten what a TROWAL can do, even more.. one, the terminus of the CCB is pretty much Springfield Mass, collacated underneath the TROWAL. The other aspect is that the high in easter Canada is imposing an unusually long fetch into the coast come tomorrow night. So you have ad hoc polar theta-e feeding into an usually elongated CCB, which is punching unusually far west under and unusually extended TROWAL. ...the whole thing is... lucky. But, I tell you what, that characterization may mean less anyway, if the ticks NW continue and the 18 and 00z and so forth show more and more of a direct impact. Man, what a complex nightmare for operational meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 SC1.gif You're right, the distribution of heavier QPF is definitely NW of progs. But the extent of the shield is only slightly west of progs, if at all. I'll be very interested to see how this propagates up the coast. Actually, the GFS showed heavier amounts within 25 miles or so of the NC coast than what are being reported at 18Z. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=6hrqpf&rh=2016020712&fh=6&r=ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 ? that's a pretty big gap there, ...particularly when "details" will mean all or nothing for the western side of this thing.The bullet points were in order. I wasn't talkinh about the first storm. I'm talking post storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 As has been the last two. This will make the third year in a row the Cape gets a blizzard warning if it materializes. Can't remember a streak like that. This is the second time this winter if this occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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