RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Kuchera is based primarily on the max temp in the bottom 500mb of the profile. So if you're progged to be 31-33F it heavily penalizes your ratios. If it's really cold, it'll overestimate your ratios sometimes. For the former scenario...usually those 2m temps are a little too warm when it's pounding 1/4SM snow. right. that makes sense. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Box discussion from 1030 is pretty weenieish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 lol you love this so much. But you are right. NNE mountains have shoveled hundreds of inches of EPS snows this year. Whenever you look at those like 10-14 day EPS means it like diverts to climo. You see the max in Maine/NH/NVT where the high terrain is and then it decreases as you head south. I'm not trolling. Trust me. 2012 is in my head and how much I wished to be in Stowe and how I hated life. Lol. I'm not saying a word. I'm dreading being locked into the tool shed midway up Mansfield, only to be let out for water and poop breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Uncle. Kind of reinvigorates the snow beyond 66 hrs btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The uncle has went west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Congrats Hazey We blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I see almost two things. A) this swings a CCB way NW and demolishes a lot of the area in a quick 8hrs. this occludes and is disorganized in that a band may form way NW of where everyone thinks, and bands that were supposed to be south are disorganized because of occlusion. I admit. Part of me is concerned an arc of lift swings out way NW and nails a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Of course, being Super Bowl Sunday, most of the general public is not paying any attention to weather forecasts for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We blizzard. Your on a good run at most of us expense................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 lol you love this so much. But you are right. NNE mountains have shoveled hundreds of inches of EPS snows this year. Whenever you look at those like 10-14 day EPS means it like diverts to climo. You see the max in Maine/NH/NVT where the high terrain is and then it decreases as you head south. I actually really am not loving it. You know I love skiing so this isn't an easy season. I've probably passed on two or three potential weekends. I'm obviously just ribbing and you are taking a historically awful season in stride. Anyways not too get too off topic. Hopefully this system a least tries to get some inverted stuff back up into the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 We are going to get crushed and some are in for a huge surprise I see almost two things. A) this swings a CCB way NW and demolishes a lot of the area in a quick 8hrs. this occludes and is disorganized in that a band may form way NW of where everyone thinks, and bands that were supposed to be south are disorganized because of occlusion. I admit. Part of me is concerned an arc of lift swings out way NW and nails a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Weenies are flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think Freak needs a special Debbie thread. It has really been unique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 not sure if posted: NWS Boston @NWSBoston All warning decisions will be made this afternoon after thorough evaluation of guidance. Greatest risk for blizzard conditions near coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Weenies are flying They are indeed. Watch the Euro go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the radar down south and matching it up with the 12z GFS this storms precip is well west of where the GFS has it at this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 1030 AM UPDATE... *** INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW MONDAY RI AND EASTERN MA WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF BOSTON TO CAPE COD *** 12Z NAM HAS COME IN QUITE ROBUST WITH HEAVY SNOW THREAT INTO EASTERN CT...RI AND EASTERN MA WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 12Z RGEM NOT AS BIG AS NAM BUT TRENDING HEAVIER. DESPITE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SO FAR OFFSHORE...THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW /975MB!/ AND LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW THE MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL/FIREHOSE TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN A TYPICAL STORM TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. IN ADDITION THE 12Z NAM IS MOST SKILLFUL INSIDE 36 HRS. WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE ALL 12Z GUID BUT AS OF NOW LEANING TOWARD THE 12Z NAM. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HEAVY SNOW THREAT WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CT- WORCESTER HILLS ALL OF EASTERN MA /INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS/ AND RI. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO 65 KT OVER NANTUCKET COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW MAY YIELD NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SNOW INITIALLY WILL BE WET AND HEAVY OVER SOUTHEAST MA THEN TRANSITIONING TO DRIER/POWDERY SNOW. HOWEVER THIS WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. LOOKS LIKE A COASTAL FRONT WILL SETUP ACROSS EASTERN MA THAT WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL BUT ALSO WITH A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE WESTERN EDGE AS SHALLOW COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHWARD. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL YIELD OES ENHANCEMENT FIRST ACROSS CAPE ANN AREA AND EVENTUALLY BLEED SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. SNOWFALL...POTENTIAL 6-12" ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA /INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS/ RI...POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CT AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS. LOW RISK OF 18+ ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE AS OES AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THIS REGION. STAY TUNED...MUCH MORE TO COME THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH START PLANNING FOR MAJOR IMPACT TO MORNING COMMUTE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 They are indeed. Watch the Euro go east. euro never makes big adjustments this close in. It is stubborn as sh*t. I expect it to tick NW just a bit or even remain relatively unchanged. it does a great job with h5 track and all but i found it to struggle with qpf placement imo lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 They are indeed. Watch the Euro go east. toaster city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 They are indeed. Watch the Euro go east. If it did it would be the outlier, I'm thinking it won't, Holds or comes a tic or two west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Saw that earlier even a little west of the nam Looking at the radar down south and matching it up with the 12z GFS this storms precip is well west of where the GFS has it at this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Saw that earlier even a little west of the nam The heaviest precip was off the coast, It is well inland down there on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Solid points by Scooter. You can kind of see that on the wrf sim radar I posted early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Solid points by Scooter. You can kind of see that on the wrf sim radar I posted early.Yeah that was pretty cool to watch. Smacked and then hours of weenie mood snows afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Geez at BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm not so sure this doesn't have higher potential than the Friday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Geez at BOX Calling for low risk of 18+ on cape. Wow... Too cautious last storm...throwing caution to the wind with this one. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol WTF it snows where it wants to snow SNE Grasshoppers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah that was pretty cool to watch. Smacked and then hours of weenie mood snows afterward. yea. you can also see how like a 12hr timing difference between the nuke and the low over the GL, and this would of turned towards magical territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think the 18+ call for places like parts of the cape, cape Ann, Plymouth county and coastal areas south of Boston is not that far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.