40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yup. 4-8" has been my call here since yesterday. People are right to admonish those who consistently pine for HECS....but its pretty hyprocryitcal to then toss them around as analogs when it clearly isn't warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 when i first saw those box amounts i thought they were generous but they have been doing a pretty good job this winter so i figured they must know something or sense something... i think the cape and parts of se ne have a shot at up to a foot but i think even orh may be in jeopardy of more than a few inches and back this way coating to one inch wouldn't surprise me in the least i have heard nothing about the inv trof possibility on later tues/wed so i imagine that is off the table too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 People are right to admonish those who consistently pine for HECS....but its pretty hyprocryitcal to then toss them around as analogs when it clearly isn't warranted. agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm thinking 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 could be more.. I think this will surprise some.. west 495 will be dififcult, east is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm thinking 6-8" I'd be happy with that at this point. I was disappointed, but it is what it is. Better than nothing, and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 when i first saw those box amounts i thought they were generous but they have been doing a pretty good job this winter so i figured they must know something or sense something... i think the cape and parts of se ne have a shot at up to a foot but i think even orh may be in jeopardy of more than a few inches and back this way coating to one inch wouldn't surprise me in the least i have heard nothing about the inv trof possibility on later tues/wed so i imagine that is off the table too? You may have a net loss by Tuesday morning . j/k - sort of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 when i first saw those box amounts i thought they were generous but they have been doing a pretty good job this winter so i figured they must know something or sense something... i think the cape and parts of se ne have a shot at up to a foot but i think even orh may be in jeopardy of more than a few inches and back this way coating to one inch wouldn't surprise me in the least i have heard nothing about the inv trof possibility on later tues/wed so i imagine that is off the table too? Tues pm has been crap since At least Yesterday. Its Monday or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 rgem still focusing on a little weenie band from ELI through NRI into BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I wouldn't be shocked if the cape verifies blizzard.....you don't need to 2' to see a blizzard. The very high amounts are all I ever had an issue with. The storm itself is a marvel of nature, which is why I was frustrated with 1.5mi vis for 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Tues pm has been crap since At least Yesterday. Its Monday or bust ok so the romantic notion of days and days of snow for some of us well on its way to divorce court Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I wouldn't be shocked if the cape verifies blizzard.....you don't need to 2' to see a blizzard. The very high amounts are all I ever had an issue with. The storm itself is a marvel of nature, which is why I was frustrated with 1.5mi vis for 3 days. who even knows if that will verify either..the whole mood snow thing but maybe for you it will closer to the water...but don't you think the whole mood snow thing is better when there is a big mantle of fresh powder for it to snow on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Don't know what Spencer saw with the RGEM but looks the same as 12z to me unless I am loading the wrong GGEM collaboration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 who even knows if that will verify either..the whole mood snow thing but maybe for you it will closer to the water...but don't you think the whole mood snow thing is better when there is a big mantle of fresh powder for it to snow on? I'm just saying...haven't examined it closely. Yes....if I had 2' on the ground, I'd be much more content with this. I would watch this, though......I said last night, modeling NEVER caught up to the Friday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Don't know what Spencer saw with the RGEM but looks the same as 12z to me unless I am loading the wrong GGEM collaboration It definitely cut QPF off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z RGEM 12z RGEM Pretty noticeable shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I will say nam is struggling in eastern NC right now. My concern still despite my flags, is that models are missing that arc of lift into SNE. That to me is the thing to watch. Models struggle with that. Also, pym county could get a OES blitz. There may be hefty totals in the classic areas near and south of me. Norwell Hanover marshfield etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 To my untrained eye it looks like it reduced all the way to NS on both the west and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 To my untrained eye it looks like it reduced all the way to NS on both the west and east Nah, it bumped up totals for NS at 18z. (RGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Nah, it bumped up totals for NS at 18z. (RGEM)yep. Was looking at it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This has that look of those bands modeled east to end up slung west like Scooter mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I will say nam is struggling in eastern NC right now. My concern still despite my flags, is that models are missing that arc of lift into SNE. That to me is the thing to watch. Models struggle with that. Also, pym county could get a OES blitz. There may be hefty totals in the classic areas near and south of me. Norwell Han. Yes, I could see that. Smacks one of those Jan 94 deals...where its a moderate event outside of the CJ bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18z gfs also way off I will say nam is struggling in eastern NC right now. My concern still despite my flags, is that models are missing that arc of lift into SNE. That to me is the thing to watch. Models struggle with that. Also, pym county could get a OES blitz. There may be hefty totals in the classic areas near and south of me. Norwell Hanover marshfield etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS says take em way down everywhere. Has 2-4 in areas where BOX has 12-18 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18Z GFS cuts back also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm not sold on those BOX amounts. I'll wait to see the gfs and current trends to have a better idea. Heavily basing your forecast off the NAM will do that. Whether or not you think its evolution is right, you have to give a nod to the fact that it's typically too high on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The models are definitely too far east vs verification down in Carolinas but it is unclear out that will translate further north. I agree wth Scott that when you have a big inflow of moisture from a low well to the southeast, the guidance tends to really struggle. This happened too in the March 2013 firehose storm. This isn't exactly the same setup but there are some of the same mechanics going on to get the precip that far NW of the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 HRRR through 12pm tomorrow...lots more coming after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 shortest duration advisories ever lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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