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stormtracker

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter

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By my count, looks like 12 members have the general metro areas in the "light bluish" or higher shading (plus the control)...which is over 20".

 

(ETA:  I know ensembles are sort of out of range now, but just pointing this out.)

They are only "out of range" in the sense that at shorter leads as we near the event, any discrepancies among them, and in comparison to the op, had better be small...otherwise the model isn't very useful.

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Starting tonight, I'd begin paying attention to the RGEM.  It has performed fairly well with "snow details" over the last couple of years.

 

MDstorm

Was saying this earlier. One of the best parts of 09-10 was watching the RGEM go nuts. Many shifts can still occur over the next 48 hours and the RGEM was often first to see them as I recall. A good snow model.

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Navgem would be acceptable.

There's really not a whole lot to discuss at this point. Time to have fun and let the chips fall. We're under a blizzard watch. Everybody knows were getting pounded. Time to root for extreme scenarios

Last night navgem was headed to Bermuda so I guess it's good that it came around. What's nice is that if history repeats itself and this storm trends slightly north to game time we have that wiggle room.

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Was saying this earlier. One of the best parts of 09-10 was watching the RGEM go nuts. Many shifts can still occur over the next 48 hours and the RGEM was often first to see them as I recall. A good snow model.

Agreed. I love the RGEM for picking up precip maxes. It can struggle with temps at times but in this case that's not going to matter much for most of us. I'll trust it over any op through 36 hours for precip.

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21Z SREF look good for DC/NOVA..2"+ for most of NOVA and DC proper...1.5 - 2 for all of MD

Looks wetter to me than the previous run. Keep me nice and cold.  I'm liking your 16-22. 

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Looking at the map it looks like 1.00-1.5 inches of precipitation. I am confused where you guys are getting 2+ inches for the Sref.

 

ETA: The map that I posted

 

We live in the DC area

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Looking at the map it looks like 1.00-1.5 inches of precipitation. I am confused where you guys are getting 2+ inches for the Sref.

ETA: The map that I posted

There's more that fell before that frame

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Looking at the map it looks like 1.00-1.5 inches of precipitation. I am confused where you guys are getting 2+ inches for the Sref.

 

ETA: The map that I posted

You're only looking at part of the storm.  It lasts longer than 24 hours. 

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Joe bastardi thinks the low may hug the coast a bit more than currently modeled. Don't know if that would have much of an affect or not on snow totals. He still thinks the bullseye will be in NOVA and MD.

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Joe bastardi thinks the low may hug the coast a bit more than currently modeled. Don't know if that would have much of an affect or not on snow totals. He still thinks the bullseye will be in NOVA and MD.

The dude is just not capable of making an unbiased forecast.

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May have already been mentioned, but will the data from the special dropsonde/sounding events be ingested for the 0z runs?

Not directly. 18Z soundings will be ingested into 18Z runs. Soundings are ingested +-3 hours from cycle time. DTK can correct me if I'm mistaken.

But, since they are ingested into the 18Z and 6Z cycles they will have an impact on the other cycles.

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Looks wetter to me than the previous run. Keep me nice and cold. I'm liking your 16-22.

So it seems like we are safe from mixing unless you are on the Eastern shore?

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Plumes are solid. Just need to remove three members that show essentially no precip at all.

I noticed the mean snowfall went down a hair. Went up a bunch in other places like NYC.

post-13976-0-88509000-1453341476_thumb.j

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So it seems like we are safe from mixing unless you are on the Eastern shore?

You are worrying way too much about mixing

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Joe bastardi thinks the low may hug the coast a bit more than currently modeled. Don't know if that would have much of an affect or not on snow totals. He still thinks the bullseye will be in NOVA and MD.

 

It would for out here. But then you have to start worrying about the boundary layers in the city. I hope it stays right where it is modeled to be now. Mega storm for everyone would be nice for once.

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I want people to see this to show you how crazy the NAM model can be. Look at the moisture differences over Arkansas. The first map is the 18z NAM @ 30 hours, 2nd is the 00z NAM @ 24 hours...just unbelievable differences for this short a time span on a model. 

 

post-8091-0-15809100-1453341947_thumb.gi

post-8091-0-81038000-1453341952_thumb.gi

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NAM moves north faster but is further east with the ridge behind it. Should break even with 18z.

 

Edit: Stronger closed low also and precip way west, may come out ahead of 18z.

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