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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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that's exactly why i'm not too thrilled with this run.  it's still only wednesday, so i think we need to be careful what we wish for lol

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Nam does this with every single big miller A leading in. While the distribution looks similar to what we expect, I don't think jumping on a fairly big shift from global guidance is the smart play.

You are wasting your breath.  "Concerned" "worried" "don't like".   From a model that gives the region 18 to 30" of snow.   You might as well go talk to a brick wall.

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Nam does this with every single big miller A leading in. While the distribution looks similar to what we expect, I don't think jumping on a fairly big shift from global guidance is the smart play.

 

 

I'm liking the 500 mb evolution.

The 500 mb low camps out off Ocean City for a long while. 

Now that I think about it, that could be the exact reason

for a dry slot for people in a slight screw zone, we'd really like the 500 mb low to camp out

around the northern Chincoteague area.

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You are wasting your breath. "Concerned" "worried" "don't like". From a model that gives the region 18 to 30" of snow. You might as well go talk to a brick wall.

Anyone who isn't used to this type of NAM run 48 hours in advance will learn a lesson way more often then not. Those who are used to it and throw up flags will never learn.

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I'm liking the 500 mb evolution.

The 500 mb low camps out off Ocean City for a long while. 

Now that I think about it, that could be the exact reason

for a dry slot for people in a slight screw zone, we'd really like the 500 mb low to camp out

around the northern Chincoteague area.

I think it's more because the NAM depicts a very broad 5H Low instead of the tight , little sucker most of the other models have.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model

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A move that will likely disappear in 45 minutes

Possibly, but anybody surprised with a northward move of this storm hasn't paid attention to past events. I'm not talking about something that damages our chances for a big storm, but something that would give those on the southern edge pause. It might also end the talk of these unbelievable 3'+ snowfall totals. I just can't see getting that kind of total, anywhere. But, I don't have a crystal ball, so....But nobody should be shocked by a move north.

Someone said it early...how would you like to be forecasting for central PA, northern NJ, or NYC?

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Use snowfall, not snow depth.

 

 

I know, I was referring to the capital weather gang map they had on their liveblog - it shows 12-18" for DC : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/model-live-blog-honing-in-on-the-details-of-a-huge-winter-storm/

 

See surface snow depth of the 00z NAM.

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I know, I was referring to the capital weather gang map they had on their liveblog - it shows 12-18" for DC : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/model-live-blog-honing-in-on-the-details-of-a-huge-winter-storm/

 

See surface snow depth of the 00z NAM.

I feel like the CWG has gone mainstream, and is less likely to make a higher end call even if guidance supports it.

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NAM is fine but I'm not sure it's right either. If it deviates at this range take it with some salt. But philly and NyC are megastorm magnets.

Philly missed the blizzard last year it was forecasted to get. They got nothing. NYC was going to get 25 and got a very generous 10 from Central Park-Newark much less. They can miss too-also to a northern trend.

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