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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter


stormtracker

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12z para GFS is in -- looks a bit less wonky than the op -- averaged over the region probably a bit wetter

 

Snow arrives a touch faster --- a little before hour 57 for 12z GFS Para (which would be 3pm-4pm on Friday). Moves out at hr 99 - so a 42 hour storm or so. All snow - mixing line is a good ways SE.

 

Lots of liquid - between 2.5 - 3 inches it looks like with a spot south of DC getting over 3 inches.

 

Very nice hit.

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22" beats blizzard of 1899 for number 2 in the city.

 

DCA itself at it's current location has not yet cracked the 20" barrier.  Even PD-I in 1979 didn't.  I'm rooting for them to finally break that.  Thought they would do it during Feb. 5-6, but came up short (though 2nd behind 1979 at that site).  We'll see.

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DCA itself at it's current location has not yet cracked the 20" barrier.  Even PD-I in 1979 didn't.  I'm rooting for them to finally break that.  Thought they would do it during Feb. 5-6, but came up short (though 2nd behind 1979 at that site).  We'll see.

 

What's the reason behind why DCA seems to always come in less than immediate surrounding areas?  Does it have to do with the dynamics around the airport itself?  Curious mostly because I live in Crystal City right next to the airport...very interested to see how this turns out.  

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DCA itself at it's current location has not yet cracked the 20" barrier.  Even PD-I in 1979 didn't.  I'm rooting for them to finally break that.  Thought they would do it during Feb. 5-6, but came up short (though 2nd behind 1979 at that site).  We'll see.

2/5-6/10 had the precip to do it (we all know to disregard the obviously wrong 1.75 liquid equivalent), but they really needed the 2-4" from noon to sunset to accumulate. It was just a bit too warm (34ish) for that first part to stick down at DCA, so it was wasted snow. 

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What's the reason behind why DCA seems to always come in less than immediate surrounding areas?  Does it have to do with the dynamics around the airport itself?  Curious mostly because I live in Crystal City right next to the airport...very interested to see how this turns out.  

 

Others would know better, but I think it has to do with location.  The airport is essentially on an island of sorts out on the Potomac.  I won't even get into the speculation/conspiracy theories on their measurements (which I've seen)...some perhaps warranted, some not.

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Snow arrives a touch faster --- a little before hour 57 for 12z GFS Para (which would be 3pm-4pm on Friday). Moves out at hr 99 - so a 42 hour storm or so. All snow - mixing line is a good ways SE.

 

Lots of liquid - between 2.5 - 3 inches it looks like with a spot south of DC getting over 3 inches.

 

Very nice hit.

 

Josh, can you post? Thanks.

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0z euro Para is south of the 0z op from last night. Still 20-24 through the cities from what I can tell. Insane totals through central VA. I don't have the zoomed panels but looks like a large area of 3'+

 

I'm not sure how much the run means now considering how much additional guidance we have on hand. Just stating what it shows. 

 

ETA: zoomed panels are in. 27" DCA/21" BWI/25" IAD. 

 

Large bullseye of 30-35" in central and parts of eastern VA. 

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Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out.

 

If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya.

 

That airport is on a swamp, though!  :P

 

But true, we'll see if some of these rates can get them past that apparent 20" "glass ceiling".

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0z euro Para is south of the 0z op from last night. Still 20-24 through the cities from what I can tell. Insane totals through central VA. I don't have the zoomed panels but looks like a large area of 3'+

I'm not sure how much the run means now considering how much additional guidance we have on hand. Just stating what it shows.

So at this point, which models would you start focusing more attention on to help fine tune the forecast? NAM, HRRR,...CRAS? Hahaha. But seriously...

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Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out.

If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya.

They will be an outlier (low totals) as usual to even locations within a few miles of the airport. We already know what will happen, no point in wondering about it.

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Lets see how low DCA can come in during an event that is so intense that any UHI effect would be totally mixed out.

 

If you think heat leakage from some buildings and the Potomac River can overwhelm 1-2"ph and 25-35mph winds then I got some swampland for ya.

As is this event looks colder than Snowmageddon tho initially it's not far off so we'll see. It was hours of glop there in that storm. I could see this surpass it.. looks more like Dec 2009 tempwise overall.

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What's the reason behind why DCA seems to always come in less than immediate surrounding areas?  Does it have to do with the dynamics around the airport itself?  Curious mostly because I live in Crystal City right next to the airport...very interested to see how this turns out.  

From what I've read, UHI only extends to about 150m above the surface max, and from 200-400m there is actually a slight "cooling island" that occurs for  reasons beyond my comprehension. Can't see how that would drastically reduce snowfall. I'd imagine that a lot of the snow defecit is from enhanced ground melting. 

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