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evaporativecooler

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About evaporativecooler

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    Montgomery Village, MD

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  1. evaporativecooler

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    Winter is already here though, just not at our latitude. Insolation is declining every day and snowcover is at most a couple of weeks away from beginning it's inexorable advance south from Ellesmere Island and other birthing places in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. If anything it's too late, and June 21st would've been more appropriate. Disregarding speculation about this year's ENSO, we have some interesting signs across the board in the Atlantic domain, which has all but flipped from last year with strong trades and persistant + NAO. Would be interesting to see how analogs work out.
  2. evaporativecooler

    May Discobs Thread

    Jesus did the heat hit hard today. Only got into the 80's with low depoints but already feel sluggish as hell. Amazing that summer here is associated with being active when it's clearly a time of inefficient body heat removal and therefore the worst season for any activity at all.
  3. evaporativecooler

    April Discobs Thread

    From the looks of it IAD maxed out at 45 degrees today for the daily LOMX record. Best spring in years continues! Edit: looks like IAD's low min record for tomorrow is a measly 30F set in 2014, hopefully if things work out just right we can break that as well
  4. evaporativecooler

    April Banter

    How you choose to look at these issues is ultimately up to you, but personally I think that in depth study is needed much more than action right now. The public conception of global warming is frankly, absurd. It's not monolithic GHG in = warmth. That's the current tendency, but the climate system works in ways that we can barely comprehend. Just to guestimate based on my current knowledge of the field, maybe less than 50 academics (a group I'm not even close to being a part of) actually grasp in a clear way. It's less undergrad thermo and more chaos theory + upper tier radiative physics and physical chemistry. Obviously raw GHG forcing is positive, but it's how the system reacts that determines our climate. You have to consider other anthropogenic forcings like aerosols (massive and uncertain impacts especially from organic + black carbon), land use changes (albedo changes from agriculture during the past few centuries dwarf that from urbanization), as well as system states that change cloud type and distribution (PDO's effect on stratiform vs convective cloud cover over the pacific is just one big potential forcing). It's forcing upon forcing upon forcing acting on different time scales and distributing heat between tropics/extratropics/poles and troposphere/stratosphere. Sometimes disequilibrium drive slow change, but if you push the train off the metaphorical tracks there can be massive jumps between system states on human time scales. We do need to get serious, but by serious I mean spending more money on serious research and diverting people who would go into things like particle physics that don't really impact our day to day lives into climate sciences.
  5. evaporativecooler

    April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    Winters not dead yet my friend. This year wants to go out with a fight
  6. evaporativecooler

    April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    The main benefit of cold weather is being able to wear a jacket though. As soon as it's too hot for a sweatshirt I'm down to two jean pockets that can barely hold half of what I need. Just one of the many things that suck about 60+ temps. On a wx related note looks like the NAO stays negative for a good long time. Last time that happened in similar ENSO (2001) it stayed slightly negative for the entire summer. Not sure how exactly that affects things in terms of warm season weather, but hopefully it at least keeps things interesting
  7. evaporativecooler

    April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    Comfortable weather is for california. 70 degrees and sunny means competing for outdoor space with every weekend warrior in the DMV and/or dying of boredom on my way to work. Doesn't have to be cold, but between May and October there damn well better be a jacked up four corners high so at least some people stay inside in the AC.
  8. evaporativecooler

    April 7-8 snow event

    Unless it really soaks in there and it's super close to 32 degrees, rain would just increase the heat transfer coefficient at the snow/soil interface and make things worse.
  9. evaporativecooler

    April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    384 GFS showing a nice frigid airmass. Might have to wait till then to stop being fringed
  10. evaporativecooler

    April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    only 79 days left until the solstice and the beginning of the end of the warm season
  11. evaporativecooler

    March Banter

    absolutely terrible weather. people outside everywhere frolicking and ****. Can't wait for the April snow so I can take my smoke break in peace
  12. evaporativecooler

    March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

    It's only a party if the pilot is Russian and wasted, which tbh he'd probably have to be to fly someone around looking for patches of snow
  13. evaporativecooler

    March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

    Dolly sods WV will have snow until the end of April. After that you could head over to the rockies to check out glaciers and snow patches, but if you're like me that's cheating. Closest proper lowland snow would be places like Val'dor Quebec where it should stay till at least mid May. After that it gets iffy unless you can charter a helicopter or something, but you can at least take comfort that northern Baffin island will stay covered with a lovely blanket of snow until mid July, and stay snowless for only a few weeks until winter returns.
  14. evaporativecooler

    March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

    I'm all in for the GFS April 3rd threat. literally weeks of winter still to come
  15. evaporativecooler

    March 20-21 Storm Banter and Party Thread

    Didn't want to put this in the storm thread, but I kinda disagree with the people saying soil temps don't matter at all for accums. Heat transport says otherwise. Say soil conductivity is 1.5 W/m*k (depends on sand/clay ratio but whatev). Then Heat is conducted at a rate of 1.5 * (dT/dZ) Watts/meter. Assume that rain reaches 2in depth before the storm, with a previous soil temp of 52 degrees (obviously not relevent here, this is just for example). With snow interface at 32 degrees, dT/dZ = (20degKelvin/.051m) =392 kelvin/meter. That gives 1.5 * 392 = 588W/m final conductivity . 32 degree snow melts at about 334000 J/kg. So with one watt being a joule/second and an inch of snow/meter being about 2.5 kg you have about 2.7inches/hour of snowmelt from pure conductive heat transport. Obviously this slows down throughout the storm as the soil cools, but still. Hope the AM rain cools this sucker down.
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