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About evaporativecooler

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    Montgomery Village, MD

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  1. February Mid/Long Range Discussion

    I'm beyond amped for the potential upcoming SSW. -QBO + PV breakup should phase quite well together to give us a damn good -AO, and possibly shake up the regime enough to end our persistant +NAO. Would be extremely surprised if we don't get some good events in late Feb or March
  2. Cold and Snow Lovers Only

    Can relate. I choose my career specifically so that my obsession with snow and cold just seems like I'm very dedicated to my job rather than crazy.
  3. Cold and Snow Lovers Only

    bumping with this lovely map. Besides the nice cozy 0's for us I can't recall the last time I've seen -54F progged for any part of Quebec. Maybe Feb 2015, but still impressive af.
  4. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    Does anyone here have thoughts on SSW odds over the next month or so? I've heard some talk about it being a possibility but seems like the strat is being surprisingly resilient so far. edit: whoops prolly wrong thread for this
  5. New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    I was all excited for this weekends cold progged on the GEM, then I checked the model output for last night and saw temps near zero across central MD. It's saying close to -5F tonight in Moco. How the **** does a model even operate with thermo this bad? That's like a 10-15 degree cold bias.
  6. JAN 4th Coastal

    This storm is absolutely critical though. We only get the kind of Arctic air mass that's following it maybe once in 4-5 years. -25C 850's are special, I'm not gonna say I wouldn't be upset if we wasted all that upper level cold on worthless bare ground instead of maxxing it out with at least an inch of snowcover. I want -2F not 8F Saturday night, there's an entire world of difference.
  7. JAN 4th Coastal

    No. I'm bored to tears right now at work and this is the only thing I can keep up on my PC that's both entertaining and related enough to what I do that I won't get dirty looks for slouching.
  8. JAN 4th Coastal

    you sure it's not a lake cutter?
  9. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    I work in this field, it's not that hidden. Here are some helpful links: Sea Ice Thickness, freeboard, + lots of extras if you know how to plot netCDF https://n5eil01u.ecs.nsidc.org/ICEBRIDGE/RDEFT4.001/ http://data.seaiceportal.de/gallery/index_new.php?lang=en_US&active-tab1=method&active-tab2=satellite http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html Good general reference: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ Arctic weather forecasts: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018010212&fh=-12
  10. Winter 2017-18 Digital Snow Thread

    Not snow, but this is one of the most beautiful panels I've ever seen
  11. JAN 4th Coastal

    lol, not only does the CMC give I-95 west 1-3 inches, it also gets all of us down to below -5F Sunday morning. If that verifies I'll be a Tim-Hortons eating, maple syrup sipping Canadian for the next month.
  12. JAN 4th Coastal

    With the caveat that I'm utterly unqualified to discuss synoptic met as a climo guy, just flipping between the Canadian and GFS on tropical tidbits, it looks like a lot of the precip field variation is caused by differences in handling the spacing between vorticity from the shortwave and that from the surface low. The Canadian draws them closer and the consolidation looks like it happens closer to our area, causing convection and a wider precip field
  13. Jan 4th Coastal

    Does the evolution of the shortwave kink in the upper plains affect downstream behavior of the longwave trough in any way? Like, what would be needed to pull this west?
  14. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Jesus Christ this is the worst thread on this board, someone needs to clean up for sure. Arctic sea ice measurement and dynamics is a legitimate science not some political football. It deserves a quality discussion.
  15. New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    just like anything in life It's always a good idea to focus on the positives instead of dwelling on non-existent snow. This year is exceptionally great for ice and if the -epo/+pna pattern continues into late Jan and February like it very well may, we could see the best skating conditions of the past two decades at least. Ice thicknesses could very easily surpass 2013/2014 and 2014/15 since both of those years had above average Decembers that wasted a lot of the late season cold on column preconditioning