SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Off my memory alone I think the 12 Euro Op was closer to something than the 00z was[/quoteare getting in range where the op runs are more reliable vs. the ensembles or too soon? For Sunday No not til inside 84-96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Even if a lot of parameter stuff is fixed, we down here around the Midlands end up rain most likely. The mid levels could be okay, but I saw us around 40F at the surface.. plus GFS is all on it's own. The UKMET might be trying, but I don't have good maps for that. UKMET does have a stout little system trying to get going in the Northern Gulf by 72... but the other maps don't look too good to get cold involved. Here is the latest GFS temps for KCAE... not good for us. Maybe can get something to work out to our North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Banter: Snow flying in the hills of NC. Shouldnt have looked at the slope cams, just makes me crave it more. Yea Euro wasnt to far off looking at H5 maps compared to gfs.Close enough for a coup, espeacilly with ukie suport. Be interesting to see if some euro ens give weight to the gfs op and its ens solution or keep the trough pos tilt and lp weak ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 ame="BristowWx" post="3849661" timestamp="1452626927"] No not til inside 84-96 hours Good. There is still time. For what I don't know...but time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Even if a lot of parameter stuff is fixed, we down here around the Midlands end up rain most likely. The mid levels could be okay, but I saw us around 40F at the surface.. plus GFS is all on it's own. The UKMET might be trying, but I don't have good maps for that. UKMET does have a stout little system trying to get going in the Northern Gulf by 72... but the other maps don't look too good to get cold involved. Here is the latest GFS temps for KCAE... not good for us. Maybe can get something to work out to our North. I didn't check dew points but that is what matters usually for you guys down there. I have seen many snow events in the SE start with a 42/12 or 38/20 spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If memory serves me correctly the Euro had a snow on the 15th and another the 18th back on friday/saturday run then lost it. It has been known to pick up on them first, then punt and then bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I didn't check dew points but that is what matters usually for you guys down there. I have seen many snow events in the SE start with a 42/12 or 38/20 spread Had to delete other post.. had wrong location... Not very good for us from what I see.. but just discovered these charts so could be reading them wrong: (i should just look at bufkit lol) Does anyone know where RAH moved the bufkit links to? The old ones return a 404... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GSP gives some indication of what the GFS might be up to: AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE IS CENTERED ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OR NRN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS ENE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE...MID/UPPER FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING OUT AND TAPERING OFF TO A NW FLOW PRECIP CHANCE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAY LOOK COMPELLING...THIS MODEL MIGHT BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS A LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY SLIDES E ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW. THIS GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF A SITUATION WHERE MOISTURE FLUX UP TO N GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WOULD BE AN ISSUE. THE MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT AND FALLING FROM MID LEVELS. ALSO OF NOTE...THE GEFS SUGGESTS THAT QPF WOULD BE MINIMAL AND THICKNESS WOULD BE MARGINAL. THUS...EVEN IF THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS CORRECT...WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT SOMETHING THAT MIGHT NOT EVEN APPROACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT AND MIGHT NOT BE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OUTSIDE THE MTNS ON SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE... THE GFS HAS A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OVER THE MIDDLE LAKES...WHICH SUPPRESSES THE SHORT WAVE FARTHER SOUTH AND PREVENTS IT FROM LIFTING ENE. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND DOES NOT PICK UP ANY LIGHT PRECIP UNTIL SOME NW FLOW MOISTURE REACHES THE NC MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FCST WILL FAVOR A TONED-DOWN GFS SOLUTION...WITH CHANCE POP ON THE TN BORDER AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX BASED ON WET BULB TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. THIS MIGHT GET RAMPED UP OR DOWN BASED ON HOW THE MODELS ALTER THE PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SYSTEMS...OR NOT. SO...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN SOME NW FLOW SNOW ON THE TN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR FOR THE NEXT MINOR EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE ECMWF STAYS DRY. THIS WOULD ALSO BE MAINLY SNOW BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESS. THE FCST STAYS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OWING TO THE BIG MODEL DISCREPANCY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Had to delete other post.. had wrong location... Not very good for us from what I see.. but just discovered these charts so could be reading them wrong: (i should just look at bufkit lol) Does anyone know where RAH moved the bufkit links to? The old ones return a 404... I use bufkitwarehouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean is better than the Op, looks like some members have some precip farther north into GA and AL. Add this to the fact that more than half of the GFS ensemble members have some chance of snow my optimism level is up a bit. Still do not think it will be a major system, but a little dusting Saturday night would be nice. The night time timing really will help out here and in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I use bufkitwarehouse Thanks Jon. A while back when I used those I wasn't sure I was getting the correct data/updated.. but it looks like it is fine now. I think I am stuck with that until I can find the ones from the NWS. Isohume, anyone? RAH changed their web addresses I think.. not publicly available anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean is better than the Op, looks like some members have some precip farther north into GA and AL. Add this to the fact that more than half of the GFS ensemble members have some chance of snow my optimism level is up a bit. Still do not think it will be a major system, but a little dusting Saturday night would be nice. The night time timing really will help out here and in AL. It's a tight little cluster in the Northern gulf from what I can see.... then they spread North and South...maybe a couple across GA then off the coast... A few of these tracks could be great for your area and even mine... if the cold is around... some members aren't half bad for us actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Here is the system in question. Courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue and his Weatherbell website Also, here is the GEFS for the same time-frame. Also from weatherbell. Some bend and turn up the coast and look good on both runs for NC. Some stronger, weaker, you know how it goes. The idea is there/posting these images for a general idea of a system being around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean is better than the Op, looks like some members have some precip farther north into GA and AL. Add this to the fact that more than half of the GFS ensemble members have some chance of snow my optimism level is up a bit. Still do not think it will be a major system, but a little dusting Saturday night would be nice. The night time timing really will help out here and in AL. Yep, the mean showed a little more gulf to coastal low signature compared to previous run. Only thing I noticed at 500mb was that there was a bit better spacing between the Friday and Sunday storm waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The 12z EPS snowfall probabilities of >1" are better than the 00z run. Not that they're great, but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro OP run says if you like your -AO, you can keep it. The last 3 runs had it spiking positive but now keeps it at -1. Same with the NAO keeping it negative 1. I see the PNA creeping to neutral now and same with EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GSP gives some indication of what the GFS might be up to: Yep, GSP not too impressed with the potential for this weekend or early next week but they admit there's still a possibility of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fly in the ointment? Both the Euro and GFS (OP runs) are quite warm at the surface for many in the same time-frame. 850's are okay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro OP run says if you like your -AO, you can keep it. The last 3 runs had it spiking positive but now keeps it at -1. Same with the NAO keeping it negative 1. I see the PNA creeping to neutral now and same with EPO. Not sure what it did for us. Better than + I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yep, GSP not too impressed with the potential for this weekend or early next week but they admit there's still a possibility of changes. Same with RAH: THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL THEN EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTH AND SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS PROGGED MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE...MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN IN THE GFS...AND THUS THE GFS GIVES A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SUNDAY. A STORM TRACK SO FAR EAST DOES NOT SUPPORT A THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIP IN CENTRAL NC...BUT AGAIN GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST AND THE PATTERN IS STILL TRANSITIONING INTO A NEGATIVE NAO...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 KCAE's recent discussion says: BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER QUICK MOVING BUT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT...INDUCING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST ONCE AGAIN. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACING OF THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF/WPC SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD HAVE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND SUPPORT ONLY RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fly in the ointment? Both the Euro and GFS (OP runs) are quite warm at the surface for many in the same time-frame. 850's are okay... Well we can hope that the storm strengthens more than currently modeled so that this will become less of an issue with the heavier precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Same with RAH: THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL THEN EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY... That was the AM disco -- Here's the PM disco COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND LASTTHROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILLLIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHTUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S... EXCEPT FOR SOME 15-20 READINGSEXPECTED MON-TUE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S (SE). THE PREDOMINATE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY THE POLAR JET...WHICH WOULD MAKE THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THE GFS GENERATES FOR EARLYSUNDAY AN NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT FOR THE SE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That was the AM disco -- Here's the PM disco COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AND LASTTHROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILLLIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHTUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S... EXCEPT FOR SOME 15-20 READINGSEXPECTED MON-TUE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S (SE). THE PREDOMINATE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY THE POLAR JET...WHICH WOULD MAKE THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THE GFS GENERATES FOR EARLYSUNDAY AN NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT FOR THE SE COAST. My bad. But it's basically the same; wait and pray... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah --- the 'for the moment' caveat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 looks good at 114, snow in ms and north ga, tad warmer for nc at 123, maybe rain for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Good run I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 very slight changes if any, gfs is stronger with the lp off the sc/ga coast roughly the same spot as 12z. holds serve. 18z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was going to say hr 120 it looks like it's blowing up. I'll take that all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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