pcbjr Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yep good run, especially for western areas. Let's see where we go from here same old same old down here - marginal and not nice - good luck up your way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Once we start getting in range of models like the NAM we should get better clarity on temps, track, etc as the energy will be getting sampled and the storm this Thursday and Friday will be mostly developed. The potential is there for a light snow if this system takes the GFS track. I really want to see the Euro come on board though, I expect it to fairly soon but it makes me nervous until that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The 18z GEFS members are pretty weak for snow through 192 hours. They have 850s good and a system.. many do.. but I think the surface temps are the reason. Not very promising imo.. to have most empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Once we start getting in range of models like the NAM we should get better clarity on temps, track, etc as the energy will be getting sampled and the storm this Thursday and Friday will be mostly developed. The potential is there for a light snow if this system takes the GFS track. I really want to see the Euro come on board though, I expect it to fairly soon but it makes me nervous until that happens. If this is a legitimate storm threat, the Euro will make a step in that direction tonight. It might not show a snowstorm for us, per se, but it should trend in the right direction. If it doesn't, then we need to take a step back and see where the GFS is falling short. I suspect it will come down to the push of cold air and whether it sets up as the Euro currently has it modeled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If this is a legitimate storm threat, the Euro will make a step in that direction tonight. It might not show a snowstorm for us, per se, but it should trend in the right direction. If it doesn't, then we need to take a step back and see where the GFS is falling short. I suspect it will come down to the push of cold air and whether it sets up as the Euro currently has it modeled.. Agreed. The Euro did make some small changes towards the GFS at 12z today with the southern energy and the northern being a little further NW. I am hoping it makes a bigger jump tonight. The main difference is how the PV lobe sets up, the GFS has it further NW than the Euro. That's the piece of energy we need to watch closely on future runs. The CMC is the farthest SE with it over the Great Lakes and the GFS much further NW. The Euro is in between right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The 18z GEFS members are pretty weak for snow through 192 hours. They have 850s good and a system.. many do.. but I think the surface temps are the reason. Not very promising imo.. to have most empty. I am not concerned about surface temps in the least. The GFS has had a bias of warm surface temps all season long. I made a post about this a week or so back on one of the boards. It is grossly missing the mark when it comes to over-night lows here. It is missing by some 5-7 degrees routinely. If 700's, 850's, and 925's are all below freezing, snow will be the predominant p-type. You can rest assured on that. It may start out briefly as rain, but it will transition to snow very quickly. Even without evaporational cooling, you will still have the latent heat absorption from melting snowflakes. Now, it is an order of magnitude lower than the cooling effect from evaporation, but it will still cool the lower levels to near freezing in less than an hour after the onset. All this, of course, is taking for granted that there is sufficient precipitation to be classified as an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 My maps are limited for it, but the Parallel 12z Euro on WB appears to be more NW and doesn't get sheared as much compared to the regular Euro. It's not there yet by any means, but more towards the GFS compared to the regular Euro. Maybe some hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Everything will depend how the ULL interacts with the trough in the first system. Want it negative to phase. You also want the ULL to slow down, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z Para Euro tracks the low perfectly for an interior SC winter storm. now with that said, i dont know about temps, northern extent of the precip shield, or anything. 850s are cold enough with the low sitting on top of central/north central florida. the 500mb anomaly chart shows a hookup on the para vs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I am not concerned about surface temps in the least. The GFS has had a bias of warm surface temps all season long. I made a post about this a week or so back on one of the boards. It is grossly missing the mark when it comes to over-night lows here. It is missing by some 5-7 degrees routinely. If 700's, 850's, and 925's are all below freezing, snow will be the predominant p-type. You can rest assured on that. It may start out briefly as rain, but it will transition to snow very quickly. Even without evaporational cooling, you will still have the latent heat absorption from melting snowflakes. Now, it is an order of magnitude lower than the cooling effect from evaporation, but it will still cool the lower levels to near freezing in less than an hour after the onset. All this, of course, is taking for granted that there is sufficient precipitation to be classified as an event. Down my way we have a lot more working against us temp wise than to our North. (Columbia, SC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z Para Euro tracks the low perfectly for an interior SC winter storm. now with that said, i dont know about temps, northern extent of the precip shield, or anything. 850s are cold enough with the low sitting on top of central/north central florida.Here is the snow map from 12z parallel Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 My maps are limited for it, but the Parallel 12z Euro on WB appears to be more NW and doesn't get sheared as much compared to the regular Euro. It's not there yet by any means, but more towards the GFS compared to the regular Euro. Maybe some hope? I see that. There were also 20-22 EPS members with some light accums into NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here is the snow map from 12z parallel Euro. Okay thanks. Still too warm for most of SC. The track isn't bad for us though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks like a legit light snow event on Sunday for N. GA. NWS even mentions it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Okay thanks. Still too warm for most of SC. The track isn't bad for us though! Yeah I can't tell what qpf looks like for this event only snow total, but I'm guessing it's either too warm or qpf doesn't make it far enough inland. I'm waiting for its ensembles to come out and see what they show and how many show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah I can't tell what qpf looks like for this event only snow total, but I'm guessing it's either too warm or qpf doesn't make it far enough inland. I'm waiting for its ensembles to come out and see what they show and how many show something.Yeah not a lot of precip. Columbia gets 0.3" RDU 0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah not a lot of precip. Columbia gets 0.3" RDU 0.3" The models have not exactly been spectacular with getting QPF amounts right lately, almost every storm ends up wetter than modeled....sometimes a lot wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yeah not a lot of precip. Columbia gets 0.3" RDU 0.3" Thanks! The good news is with the parallel Euro on board it leads me to believe the current Euro will follow soon, either tonight or tomorrow. If surface temps are cold enough, 32-33, we could see a good 1-3" snow in some areas. I'm not sure we could get more than that because a stronger phase would pull warm air well inland while a weaker disturbance would have less qpf. A fine needle to thread as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Thanks! The good news is with the parallel Euro on board it leads me to believe the current Euro will follow soon, either tonight or tomorrow. If surface temps are cold enough, 32-33, we could see a good 1-3" snow in some areas. I'm not sure we could get more than that because a stronger phase would pull warm air well inland while a weaker disturbance would have less qpf. A fine needle to thread as always. The Euro rarely makes big jumps from one run to the next inside 5 days so a gradual shift is more likely, probably wouldn't be til the 00Z run tomorrow night that it would come full swing towards the GFS solution if it was headed that way. The ensemble support would likely grow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 similar look at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks more negatively tilted at hr 102? (comparing to the 18z run) At the surface, it looked a little north over the Gulf states, but is about the same coming up the coast, though the SLP is a bit weaker. Pretty similar overall. A bit drier in NC, though it's noisy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 snow in n ga and almost all of wnc @111. (850s wise). temps really close for rdu though... colder run than 18z and maybe 12z. great run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS NOT backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Doesn't look like there is as much moisture across NC on this run compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 very limited precip. qpf max down near the sfc low and barely any maks it up to nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 They already have a thread dedicated to this weekend's snow on the other board... Too early ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 850s at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 They already have a thread dedicated to this weekend's snow on the other board... Too early ? Given the etiquette of this forum (regarding when we usually start threads), yes... not that I really care either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 They already have a thread dedicated to this weekend's snow on the other board... Too early ? Need to see tonight's Euro run first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 very limited precip. qpf max down near the sfc low and barely any maks it up to nc. That's a good run for alot of us. That qpf will beef up Quite a bit more with that track and sfc pressure. Caveat it's a fast mover, not a dragging overrunner. Anyway I could see .4 qpf max runing hwy 49 from charlotte up to Burlington over to Gaston lake with that picture. Nice to see a model being consistent. Jury still out and a few more twist and turns to go. And of course the euro keeps everyone in check. See how ens and ukmet look in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.