Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Lol last February and the February before last produced for a lot of people. Maybe not your area but a lot of people did get snow last February. Also February is an active winter month for a lot of places so writing off February on January 14 is not wise. of course it produced for lot of people. I never said it didn't. I said for my area it didn't produce, so why should I believe this Feb will produce ? What's different about this Feb compared to last year that should get me excited ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 He's aware that February is the warmest winter month on average in most interior locations I hope. It seemed like last year everyone was saying February would be our month too. Well that didn't turn out so well around these parts.Why should I believe this February will be any different ? It worked out very well around here, sir! Two Fab Febs in a row! Can we make it a trio?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 For the Midlands of SC, we tend to get our Winter weather from the end of Jan - Feb. If Feb is the warmest, why does that happen down here in the deeper South around I-20? apparently there's not much correlation between avg temps and snow in the south. Look at march. Its way warmer than Dec on avg but its also snowier in a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 of course it produced for lot of people. I never said it didn't. I said for my area it didn't produce, so why should I believe this Feb will produce ? What's different about this Feb compared to last year that should get me excited ?where is that lottery ticket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well day 7 looks interesting on the 12z GFS. It's now showing some CAD setup and it would have cold in place before the system moves in. The run shows freezing rain for portions of N NC. It would then change this over to rain; but plenty of time for this to look better or worse. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=180&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160114+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Before everybody jumps on me, this is really the only thing to focus on. The LR (after this potential) does not look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well day 7 looks interesting on the 12z GFS. It's now showing some CAD setup and it would have cold in place before the system moves in. The run shows freezing rain for portions of N NC. It would then change this over to rain; but plenty of time for this to look better or worse. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=180&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160114+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Before everybody jumps on me, this is really the only thing to focus on. The LR (after this potential) does not look good. Yeah, nice storm for SW VA and close to snow even in N NC for a lot of it. I'd think it bears watching. The GFS has been pretty consistent with it over the last few runs. It's still awhile off and there's plenty of time for it to trend better or worse. The Euro last night did not look so hot, though, but it's D8, so it's a crap shoot, anyways. Probably a pretty unlikely storm and it will probably be all-rain, but there isn't much else to watch after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 No upcoming pattern description ever gets a frown on my face like hearing the words strong nino does: Got blistered by it in 98 and its gooing to try to work its magic again this year me thinks. Theres still plenty of time to avoid the shutout, as Ive never had that happen before. I can easily see Sunday doing the trace- half inch deal and keeping the undefeated streak still alive. All that being said it can snow 20 inches in Feb for all I know, but it want matter to me because I never did and still dont want any part of a strong el nino. Be warned the seasonal models have been showing overwhelming signals that next year is a super strong La nina. It'll be dry boys, but the mtns will love it because it'll be northwest flow city so they will be able to nickel and dime their way to seasonal avg if not above. No way they can ever do it in a strong nino cause beech mtn aint getting 100+ inches just off synoptic snows. I'm thankfull the pattern did shift big time imo from what December was coughing up and really gave us all we could ask for -nao,-ao,+pna during a nino of all things. If we can maintain this same hand weve been dealt another 6 weeks then I will be shocked if we don't score one or 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm thankfull the pattern did shift big time imo from what December was coughing up and really gave us all we could ask for -nao,-ao,+pna during a nino of all things. If we can maintain this same hand weve been dealt another 6 weeks then I will be shocked if we don't score one or 2 storms. The potential is there for sure. I think that makes it even more frustrating. It's like being a fan of the best team and being afraid it's going to come out and lay an egg. You can have all the potential in the world, but it doesn't matter if you can't come away with a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 No upcoming pattern description ever gets a frown on my face like hearing the words strong nino does: Got blistered by it in 98 and its gooing to try to work its magic again this year me thinks. Theres still plenty of time to avoid the shutout, as Ive never had that happen before. I can easily see Sunday doing the trace- half inch deal and keeping the undefeated streak still alive. All that being said it can snow 20 inches in Feb for all I know, but it want matter to me because I never did and still dont want any part of a strong el nino. Be warned the seasonal models have been showing overwhelming signals that next year is a super strong La nina. It'll be dry boys, but the mtns will love it because it'll be northwest flow city so they will be able to nickel and dime their way to seasonal avg if not above. No way they can ever do it in a strong nino cause beech mtn aint getting 100+ inches just off synoptic snows. I'm thankfull the pattern did shift big time imo from what December was coughing up and really gave us all we could ask for -nao,-ao,+pna during a nino of all things. If we can maintain this same hand weve been dealt another 6 weeks then I will be shocked if we don't score one or 2 storms. If it's a strong la nina it may work out a lot better than this year, but if its weak or moderate... lots of bad winter stretches show up like 2011-12 and 12/13 and 2006-2008... plus the severe season may be a lot worse like 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Next weekend could be interesting. 12Z Euro shows big time CAD setup. I'm fully expecting it to warm up and rain but I guess it warrants watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Next weekend could be interesting. 12Z Euro shows big time CAD setup. I'm fully expecting it to warm up and rain but I guess it warrants watching. Yea I counted several big hits on the 12z GEFS. At least 4 big weenies in there included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not a bad look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hurricane Alex coming in for the rescue? (Pcroton from WU) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not a bad look: Euro Ens Mean holds high pressure over MN into the Great Lakes for an eternity in the confluence there as the PV moves off to the east...then the big nino southern stream wave in the southwest approaches. Has the look of a storm that will trend north eventually, but there's a lot of cold air hanging in the east with that high pressure....verbatim, the freezing lines are draped across N NC into VA as the system moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro Ens Mean holds high pressure over MN into the Great Lakes for an eternity in the confluence there as the PV moves off to the east...then the big nino southern stream wave in the southwest approaches. Has the look of a storm that will trend north eventually, but there's a lot of cold air hanging in the east with that high pressure....verbatim, the freezing lines are draped across N NC into VA as the system moves in I would strongly suspect that given that setup, temps would be quite a bit cooler than they appear to be at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think this one has legs. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looking good for next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would strongly suspect that given that setup, temps would be quite a bit cooler than they appear to be at this lead. I see it's go that banana high you mentioned the other day...At this range CAD would be much stronger than currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The EPS control run shows a wicked ice/snow storm for parts of NC and VA... not that it matters. The ENS Mean looks to be further south compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I see it's go that banana high you mentioned the other day...At this range CAD would be much stronger than currently depicted. Yup, that's what you want to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Some big hitters for next week on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Weekend system? Cool. Some big hitters for next week on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's weekend / next week or bust...we then go into a 97-98 big nino look (above normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 One of the few times we are getting some top model agreement. Nice to see fora change. But long way to go although the players should start to enter the field by mid next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I could see this as of those times there is a little something for most of both forums...I am big CAD fan because it's stubborn to move out and colder than modeled...usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I hope some of you are young and healthy with no family history of heart problems. If not, maybe you should think about taking up checkers as a hobby instead of the weather. Much less fluctuation and volatility there. Robert's reference to February is probably because analogs of strong El Ninos show that February is usually colder and wetter vs normal. At the end of Jan. I am confident that the temps will end up below ave. and precip above ave. Of course for many, if they did not get snow, the month will have sucked. Feb. was predicted by many to have temps further below ave than Jan. I know, I know..There is the dreaded longer days, and higher sun angle, and higher average temps. We hear that every year, but we have had many good snows and cold shots in February. Not saying we won't get something in the next two weeks. Just scratching my head again at all the doom and gloom posted by some folks.We must sometimes be reminded that we live in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So now the GFS suppresses this weekend storm into oblivion while the Euro flips to do the opposite. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's weekend / next week or bust...we then go into a 97-98 big nino look (above normal)Shetley? Is that you !?It can't stay cold forever, especially here, we gotta relax for awhile, then reload for Fab Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ^ Sorry, don't think my post came off right....just saying that after next week, it looks like we are going to go back into a warm period. I'm still optimistic for Feb. My 'bust' comment didn't mean rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I hope some of you are young and healthy with no family history of heart problems. If not, maybe you should think about taking up checkers as a hobby instead of the weather. Much less fluctuation and volatility there. Robert's reference to February is probably because analogs of strong El Ninos show that February is usually colder and wetter vs normal. At the end of Jan. I am confident that the temps will end up below ave. and precip above ave. Of course for many, if they did not get snow, the month will have sucked. Feb. was predicted by many to have temps further below ave than Jan. I know, I know..There is the dreaded longer days, and higher sun angle, and higher average temps. We hear that every year, but we have had many good snows and cold shots in February. Not saying we won't get something in the next two weeks. Just scratching my head again at all the doom and gloom posted by some folks.We must sometimes be reminded that we live in the south. Agree! The last two years , we've gotten all of our wintry events February ! It's hard to wait, but maybe we have out shot if we don't score the next week or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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