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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


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Well a couple of the GFS runs from the past couple of days show some pretty cold air around Feb 7th - 11th time frame. I have noticed on a couple runs seeing the 516 line down into the upstate and, on one, the 510 line into WNC. I don't know what that might translate to for 2m temps, but that seems pretty cold. 18Z doesn't show nearly that magnitude of cold though, hope it's not the beginning of a trend! CMC brings the 522 line down through WNC though on the 5th. I also noticed a few days ago the GFS had 2 big cutters modeled and it seemed to lose the second. It now brings the second one back, as does the CMC. 

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Well a couple of the GFS runs from the past couple of days show some pretty cold air around Feb 7th - 11th time frame. I have noticed on a couple runs seeing the 516 line down into the upstate and, on one, the 510 line into WNC. I don't know what that might translate to for 2m temps, but that seems pretty cold. 18Z doesn't show nearly that magnitude of cold though, hope it's not the beginning of a trend! CMC brings the 522 line down through WNC though on the 5th. I also noticed a few days ago the GFS had 2 big cutters modeled and it seemed to lose the second. It now brings the second one back, as does the CMC. 

 

The 7th-11th timeframe looks like a pretty legitimate threat window for both cold and snow, from what I can tell, based on the ensembles.  Long ways to go, of course, but the modeling looks pretty consistent that we'll have something to watch.  Fab Feb!

 

There looks to be a chance for some tail end development after the cold front passes through on Fab Feb 4th-5th, as well, though the chances of that look somewhat more remote at this point (though, again, that's still awhile off and a lot could change).

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