snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro has some very light snow across NC hour 108. It's a step in the right direction and towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdawg11 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I like how the Euro is starting to trend Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 not a fan of the 00z eps. system shows up, but its picking up on the crap temps from the quick look. to not have a couple outrageous members.. (even the last eps had 2+ inch amounts into the CAE area) is a bad sign on the temp profiles for many. GEFS is agreeing for the most part. 850s do crash it seems. Hell even the 540 (thickness) drops through... but 2m/surface issues... Gonna be a chilly rain for a big part of GA, SC, NC if things don't change. Some areas can get some snow though... too early to draw that line. 3 AM discussion in KCAE does say this (my exact thoughts, but i'd include far northern SC into it (rock hill area). THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE COMPARED TO THE GFS SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WE CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING UNTIL A BETTER CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS OCCURS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP TYPE OTHER THAN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ARRIVING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SOME POSSIBLE SNOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA POSSIBLY...BUT THAT IS NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z Para held up with a classic miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z EPS is improved although the lows for the esnemble members are still fairly dispersed. I will say the HP diving into the central US is a bit stronger on the 00z EPS at 12z 1/17 which is a good sign. Other than that, no crucially important changes to note with a quick look this morning. The 00z GEFS trended a lot more north especially regarding the gulf, the mean now tracks over the southern part of the gulf states and off the SC coast sub 1000mb... then right off of HAT as a coastal. You can see the increase in moisture on the GEFS mean as well, now up to 0.7" for 6 hour precip. Much more closer to the coast and stronger than the 18z GEFS and the same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well if nothing else the GFS is consistent...that gives me some hope as the Euro seems to not be as consistent in that time frame with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z GFS looks a little stronger and colder (per 850s). Large area of > .1 amounts over N GA, N SC, and most of NC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=111ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_111_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 0z Para is even better than the 6z gfs, it even pops an 850mb low. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_108_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=00¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=108&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160113+00+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=99&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z GEFS is about 50 miles south of the 0z. Not as much moisture as a result. A bit of a step back. Now we wait on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Definitely an improved look in the longer range on the eps. The Aleutian low retrogrades west and pumps the PNA up. Also a strong signal for a storm day 10. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Definitely an improved look in the longer range on the eps. The Aleutian low retrogrades west and pumps the PNA up. Also a strong signal for a storm day 10. Fingers crossed. 06Z GFS has a good storm Jan 24-25.....deep south snow on that one.....to bad its 11-12 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Good trends overnight. GFS standing firm, Euro taking steps towards the GFS, and ensembles look even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z GEFS is about 50 miles south of the 0z. Not as much moisture as a result. A bit of a step back. Now we wait on the 12z. no it isnt, it actually throws more moisture/sn back into western nc/sc and the sfc low is stronger. not a step back at all. still has that qpf max around the lp center and struggles to throw back any sig qpf but we will have to watch it as we get within 72hrs or so and see if it trends wetter, as we have seen with a few storms here this fall and winter. can't have too much of a good thing though, bc temps are borderline (but they always are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Definitely an improved look in the longer range on the eps. The Aleutian low retrogrades west and pumps the PNA up. Also a strong signal for a storm day 10. Fingers crossed. Excellent. I think that's the ticket we need. Bring back the PNA and EPO to bring the cold back...hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At this point I feel pretty confident that we will see some wintry precipitation somewhere in the SE this weekend and then continue a colder pattern throughout late Jan and early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 no it isnt, it actually throws more moisture/sn back into western nc/sc and the sfc low is stronger. not a step back at all. still has that qpf max around the lp center and struggles to throw back any sig qpf but we will have to watch it as we get within 72hrs or so and see if it trends wetter, as we have seen with a few storms here this fall and winter. can't have too much of a good thing though, bc temps are borderline (but they always are). I will have to respectively disagree. With respect to the low pressure: At 0z Sunday the 6z run is 1008, the 0z - 1006 6z Sunday: 6z-1008, 0z-1006 12 Sunday: 6z-1005, 0z-1004 (tucked in closer to coastline) 18z Sunday: 6z-1000, 0z-999 (closer to Hatteras) As far as precip, here are the 24hr totals. I often use this to look for shifts in the track (especially the dreaded NW shift). It will also show systems ramping up precip as a storm nears as you mentioned in your post. 6z 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I will have to respectively disagree. With respect to the low pressure: At 0z Sunday the 6z run is 1008, the 0z - 1006 6z Sunday: 6z-1008, 0z-1006 12 Sunday: 6z-1005, 0z-1004 (tucked in closer to coastline) 18z Sunday: 6z-1000, 0z-999 (closer to Hatteras) As far as precip, here are the 24hr totals. I often use this to look for shifts in the track (especially the dreaded NW shift). It will also show systems ramping up precip as a storm nears as you mentioned in your post. 6z Your 6z map ends at 1pm on Sunday while your 00z map ends at 7pm Sunday. Hence, you aren't comparing apples to apples here. Several of the members have more precip falling between 1pm and 7pm in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I started a storm thread. I put the wrong date. It should be the 17th. Can a mod help me with that? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47609-11616-winter-weather-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Your 6z map ends at 1pm on Sunday while your 00z map ends at 7pm Sunday. Hence, you aren't comparing apples to apples here. Several of the members have more precip falling between 1pm and 7pm in NC. Thanks. I changed my original post to the correct 6z map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Really hard not to like how the Canadian Ensembles evolve the Pacific over time. The Aleutian low retrogrades nicely and really pumps the PNA ridge. The GEFS agree to an extent. Franklin said the EPS do as well, although I can only see them through 240. That will help a lot, should it come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 This is one of those storms where the exact timing of the phase is going to make a huge difference. Earlier the better on this one. Too late, and it's weak and out to sea with a show shower or two at best. With 3-4 days and the ensembles are all over the board still, some with nothing at all, some with a bombing low right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z GFS a little slower with our s/w at 69hrs and faster with the NE storm. That's a good sign. Room to grow/phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z GFS a little slower with our s/w at 69hrs. That's a good sign. Room to grow/phase.Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A little CAD action setting up on the 12Z GFS out around 200 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I don't trust the cold showing up on the GFS next week. It's relying on snow pack that may or (most likely) may not be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I don't trust the cold showing up on the GFS next week. It's relying on snow pack that may or (most likely) may not be there. I dunno the CMC has it even colder than the GFS and it doesn't have a storm so no snow pack on it... next Tues low next Wed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I dunno the CMC has it even colder than the GFS and it doesn't have a storm so no snow pack on it... next Tues low next Wed low But the Canadian has a cold bias... time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 But the Canadian has a cold bias... time will tell. Right and the CMC is about 8-10 degrees colder for a given location than the GFS is, so if you account for the cold bias and add say 8-10 degrees then both models are in the same ball park temp wise..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 There is a lot of interplay with these systems. If the Sunday storm goes up the coast and bombs out, that holds our cold high pressure in longer behind it. 12z GEFS coming in has trended colder with the southern stream wave coming in flatter into the southern plains for the storm late next week. It's showing the CAD / overrunning threat into the leftover cold air A little CAD action setting up on the 12Z GFS out around 200 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro complete and utter suppression. Massive difference between it and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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