Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Agreed, just tempering some expectations for now. It has been the theme ever since the start of fall. Forecast is dry 5 days out, only for an inch of rain to be forecasted a couple of days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z cmc is dry as a bone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Finally within 5 days All images Sunday 18z 1:00pm Let's see if the ECMWF will agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 QPF is also very light, less than .25 for NC on Sunday.Most would be excited about 2-3 inches, so no worries ! Temps are the bigger worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Setup looks pretty good for storm #3 at 186...big 50/50 low, cold high just north of MN....solid wave in Nevada / CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 really warm at the sfc on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 How's the ukmet look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 really warm at the sfc on sunday. yea pretty warm with the precip overhead. would need good rates to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If 850s were as cold as advertised on the 12z GFS, I feel like surface temperatures would be supportive while precip was falling, at least. Of course, heavier precip would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Sun angle! FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Setup looks pretty good for storm #3 at 186...big 50/50 low, cold high just north of MN....solid wave in Nevada / CA Good look on GFS, but the wave cuts off and slowly wanders into TX....that would be a first this year with the fast jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Setup looks pretty good for storm #3 at 186...big 50/50 low, cold high just north of MN....solid wave in Nevada / CA This one looks way too warm, cold air is retreating as AO and NAO trend more positive. I think we have to rely on 1 and 2 this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Sun angle! FTL It will create its own cold air. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 This one looks way too warm, cold air is retreating as AO and NAO trend more positive. I think we have to rely on 1 and 2 this time. Yep, but could be different if the wave kicked on out....full on speculation here at that time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Don't buy the surface temps lock stock n barrel just yet.remeber this summer and gfs mid range would constantly be spitting out 110 degree temps and all sort of craziness. Something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS parallel looks similar to the op. The track takes a little more of a turn and gives central NC some 3 inch amounts. Looks a little colder too. Has the para been better than the op like the EURO has been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Don't buy the surface temps lock stock n barrel just yet.remeber this summer and gfs mid range would constantly be spitting out 110 degree temps and all sort of craziness. Something to think about. Agreed. Right now, at least for me, it's still all about the trend. I don't think the models will have the surface figured out until a day or two ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Don't buy the surface temps lock stock n barrel just yet.remeber this summer and gfs mid range would constantly be spitting out 110 degree temps and all sort of craziness. Something to think about. Fair point...the new GFS was known to have the warm sfc bias as I recall....unless they've made corrections or it's more of a factor in the summer vs. winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Don't buy the surface temps lock stock n barrel just yet.remeber this summer and gfs mid range would constantly be spitting out 110 degree temps and all sort of craziness. Something to think about. I agree. There is some cold/dry surface air to the west that is moving in before the precip, but the model doesn't get the colder/dryer air in quick enough. This is something that we can look at in future runs. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=12&fhour=114¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ensemble mean looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS parallel looks similar to the op. The track takes a little more of a turn and gives central NC some 3 inch amounts. Looks a little colder too. Has the para been better than the op like the EURO has been? Too many damn models these days. Ops, Parallels, Ensembles, CRAS! (We'll be in CRAS range tomorrow... 84 hours out!... if this thing holds) That being said, the GFS Parallel track looks very nice. Hope it's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 From LC this morning. A complex storm threat over the eastern third of the nation may bring some critical changes to U.S. weather starting this weekend. While this will be mainly a moderate/heavy rain event below the Mason-Dixon Line (perhaps some snow and sleet in middle Appalachia), intensification off of the New Jersey coast may enable a cold air draw from Quebec on Saturday PM into Sunday. So a surprise change to snow could occur from the PHL metro into New England. Following this system: an Arctic intrusion for the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard next week. I should also mention that there is a huge sudden stratospheric warming event is taking place. By weakening the circumpolar vortex (this time in definitive fashion), chances for widespread blocking in western and northern North America will expand yet again in the last days of January. Smile. It's winter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's hard to tell with the free maps, but the 12z UKMET looks like it might be coming onboard, or close to it (probably too far OTS as shown). Hopefully, the Euro jumps onboard this afternoon, then we might have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 For the 1/17 system I took a look at soundings for RDU. The atmosphere is below 0C all the way through the 950mb level and only the last few hundred feet go above freezing. If the low is stronger/closer to the coast and/or heavier precip the surface temps would be colder as well. GFS does have a slight warm bias I believe as well. The key takeaway is its plenty cold aloft with -4.3C temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wow! Big Jump with the GEFS! Strong signal there. Let's hope the Euro jumps in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wow! Big Jump with the GEFS! Strong signal there. Let's hope the Euro jumps in. Big jump west or north...or both. Can't seem to pull up the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 At this rate the GFS should be popping an 850 in the next couple runs, some evidence of one this run but it does not quite get there. The 105hr ncep panel looks awfully close to a pinch off at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Too many damn models these days. Ops, Parallels, Ensembles, CRAS! (We'll be in CRAS range tomorrow... 84 hours out!... if this thing holds) That being said, the GFS Parallel track looks very nice. Hope it's on to something. GFS Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Big jump west or north...or both. Can't seem to pull up the maps Sorry. I meant that the mean has a signal for more moisture and the track of the low is good and stronger than the 6z run. It seems like there is more of a consensus for what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS Ens Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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