mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I hope the 1/17 system comes together for us because the GFS, Euro, and GGEM show a cutter for the day 10 system. Big surprise. If you have access to the parallel GFS take a look at the 00Z run. It shows some good potential for the next few systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I disagree. I think the Sunday system is much more likely than the Tuesday system. I Think the cold press will really squash the Tuesday hopeful. Do you favor near shore track? OBX to ORF and we both have a chance at wintry. Seems like the GEFS clustering is more offshore if I am reading it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I disagree. I think the Sunday system is much more likely than the Tuesday system. I Think the cold press will really squash the Tuesday hopeful. And that's why you get paid the big bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Check out how the GFS has adjusted for Friday: https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/686868969492475904 Can the same happen Sunday? Yep. If the trough sharpens/ goes negative in the Gulf a little sooner, there you go. However, it's also quite possible the northern branch energy moves a little too fast, a la Euro solution. The good thing is we only have 6 days to wait and find out. This is the closest we have been so far this winter at having a shot and with the models showing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro also had a storm the same time before, and it has shown storms in the past, lost them, and then brought them back a few days before they hit. WxSouth talked about that some on Facebook. WxSouth 12 mins · Sometimes the longer range models will show a threat, close call, or big event, then back down, only to bring it back later. This seems to be the case in this Saturday night and Sunday event for the Southeast. I'm not sold on any of the model solutions but I cover where things could go, and make some notes about the model's handling of major features so far. Huge errors at times, and the further out in time you go, the bigger the errors on all of them. But in last nights model runs, the European and GFS both show a stout wave diving in Texas, as a piece of the Polar Vortex gets shunted toward southern Canada and North Dakota Saturday night. It has a look that might support a wave in the Gulf, colder air spilling south, without killing, suppressing the storm. It's too far out still, and anything is possible,but it's something to watch. GFS pulls that moisture further north into the Southeast, with a Wintery mess in various parts, but again, it's only something to watch and can't bank on anything. More discussion at the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Canadian ensembles evolve toward a pretty nice look toward the end of their run. The Aleutian low retrogrades SW -- helps force the STJ south and pumps up the PNA ridge. The GFS and Euro ENS aren't horrific...just not a great snow pattern. But it doesn't look stuck, like the December pattern was. We should be ok into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Indexes don't look too bad today. They may relax for a bit, but we've seen much worse progs than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Canadian ensembles evolve toward a pretty nice look toward the end of their run. The Aleutian low retrogrades SW -- helps force the STJ south and pumps up the PNA ridge. The GFS and Euro ENS aren't horrific...just not a great snow pattern. But it doesn't look stuck, like the December pattern was. We should be ok into Feb. Nice! Regarding Sunday, there was increased support for a storm on the 06z GEFS members. I would be concerned east of the mtns with low level temperatures though. Y'all should check out the control run from 06z. It has 4 winter storms in succession. 1st box (top left) on Allan's model page if you have access - http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=06z¶m=members----850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Grit, I'm always concerned about low level temps over here. 850s looked good, but where is my high pressure? Way back up north of North Dakota? Yeah, that's gonna work. But, we can still get lucky, so we'll see. I do have a feeling that the moisture will be there. Oh, and take your map and move it south by about 50 miles, would ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Grit, I'm always concerned about low level temps over here. 850s looked good, but where is my high pressure? Way back up north of North Dakota? Yeah, that's gonna work. But, we can still get lucky, so we'll see. I do have a feeling that the moisture will be there. Oh, and take your map and move it south by about 50 miles, would ya? On the 6z GFS that would also be a problem. It has temps falling into the upper 30s with dew points still above freezing as the precip falls. That wont work. We'll need this storm stronger to pull in (and down) more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Grit, I'm always concerned about low level temps over here. 850s looked good, but where is my high pressure? Way back up north of North Dakota? Yeah, that's gonna work. But, we can still get lucky, so we'll see. I do have a feeling that the moisture will be there. Oh, and take your map and move it south by about 50 miles, would ya? Yeah, even with the threats being shown, I don't like the set up. No high pressure where I like to see it...near the lakes or in NY. Very questionable that even if the track is right it would get cold enough imo. I'm moving on to February honestly. Hoping that a potential SSW happens and we reshuffle, get a better pacific pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It seems like the PNA and EPO have been the key last couple of years. The LR has the PNA continuing to stay positive but the EPO moving more negative. If we can get these two working together we may be in business. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah, even with the threats being shown, I don't like the set up. No high pressure where I like to see it...near the lakes or in NY. Very questionable that even if the track is right it would get cold enough imo. I'm moving on to February honestly. Hoping that a potential SSW happens and we reshuffle, get a better pacific pattern. Even JB is backing down on the cold in the East. Blames the weekend cutter system for it. Seems like we either have the cold or the LP most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 really liking the sunday threat. temps will be an issue (always is) but the gfs has ticked north with the precip shield the past 5 runs. lets see if 12z can bring the goods. 06z: 18z yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Too bad we can't get this look when the cold air is here (12z nam): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still liking Jan 17.. some of the 6z GFS ensembles show a bomb going off if we give the s/w enough room to develop. A couple of members blow it up to a sub-960mb low off the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still liking Jan 17.. some of the ensembles show a bomb going off if we give the s/w enough room to develop. Were going to need this system stronger to get the surface temps cold. Looks like there will be plenty of cold air aloft but light precp would not be enough to pull it down (as shown on the 6z GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Were going to need this system stronger to get the surface temps cold. Looks like there will be plenty of cold air aloft but light precp would not be enough to pull it down (as shown on the 6z GFS). Well, there is hope in what has happened here since the start of fall with the precip not coming into the forecast until a couple days out, and often being a lot of precip that hangs around for a while once it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well hats off to the parallel Euro, it was the first to pick up on the system for the 17th dropping some light snow. I really like this storm and its potential. Temps will be the biggest question, 850s should be fine the question is surface but they will be cold enough imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Were going to need this system stronger to get the surface temps cold. Looks like there will be plenty of cold air aloft but light precp would not be enough to pull it down (as shown on the 6z GFS). of course, but that is what we are watching for. every gfs run since the 11th has trended the right way for a stronger system. as we get within 3-4 days and the sw gets properly sampled is when i want to see a wound up storm. not 130hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Robert's got a good article on the Jan 17 threat up on his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Were going to need this system stronger to get the surface temps cold. Looks like there will be plenty of cold air aloft but light precp would not be enough to pull it down (as shown on the 6z GFS). Not looking at the 6z GFS sfc at face value. I'm looking at the trend and ensemble support. It's still all over the place, either completely suppressed or it explodes into a 985mb low off the SE coast. If it does develop, I hope to see the HP nose into the NE as the first low pulls away to get some CAD in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Would be wonderful for most. The Window is upon us. Too bad we can't get this look when the cold air is here (12z nam): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The key with the 17th system now is to see consistency and further model support. Getting the Euro and CMC on board will be a big step in the right direction. We are at the point where it's close enough that models should begin locking in on the energy the next 1-2 days so the trends will be critical. The GFS has trended better two runs in a row which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty good agreement from Euro ensembles of a low moving up the coast the 17th I like to see this type of agreement at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 00z euro para is suppressed Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS bufkit shows .201 snow for for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS bufkit shows .201 snow for for the event.That looks to increase based on the trends. With iffy surface temps, a dusting to an inch on the grass would be a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 here we go, maybe a tick colder at 99? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z GFS really amping up the Jan 17 s/w over TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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