Stormcatt Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 How are temps? Is that what's close? Temps are not the problem. Plenty cold . Too much cold suppress the low into the central gulf . Great run though just fix a little timing issues and boom Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The strength of the El Nino related subtropical jet continues to be too much for the East this winter. I would be suprised of anything changed in February. Joe Bastardi even brings it up this morning in his Atmospheric Advenger post. One thing that can be noted is that all of the models have been very hesitant to even spin up fantasy snow storms. At least give them credit for that. All one can do is call it as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The DOC is very close late weekend and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The strength of the El Nino related subtropical jet continues to be too much for the East this winter. I would be suprised of anything changed in February. Joe Bastardi even brings it up this morning in his Atmospheric Advenger post. One thing that can be noted is that all of the models have been very hesitant to even spin up fantasy snow storms. At least give them credit for that. All one can do is call it as it is. Isn't the El Nino forecast to weaken some by next month which would help with this? I thought I read that somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 General forward looking pattern progression is...-NAO ridge retrogrades west and runs into +PNA ridge in W Canada, sending the PV low stuck over Central Canada south into the US. Cold high pressure follows and we then have a 3 day window for something to stir up along the gulf...then the cold high pulls on out and we go zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 But if the Nino is gradually weakening wouldn't that help towards February? Not sure how fast it's weakening so not sure how that will affect anything. The Euro is close enough to bear watching as mentioned before. I'm giving up on the GFS completely until we get a potential storm within 5 days, otherwise I really don't think there's a point to really watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The strength of the El Nino related subtropical jet continues to be too much for the East this winter. I would be suprised of anything changed in February. Joe Bastardi even brings it up this morning in his Atmospheric Advenger post. One thing that can be noted is that all of the models have been very hesitant to even spin up fantasy snow storms. At least give them credit for that. All one can do is call it as it is. Have you been looking at the models? They've had a lot of fantasy snow storms lately...thus why everyone is going from depressed to happy to depressed again. I have no dog in the fight as I'll be out of the country when the fun and games look to start. We just really need the cold to entrench first. That's what the models showed last week happening this week and now it appears the cold is transient. It's simply rare to thread the needle when no real source of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Isn't the El Nino forecast to weaken some by next month which would help with this? I thought I read that somewhere. It's already started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just me, but this nino is right there with the strongest of all time....so, hard to count on any weakening of the Pac jet regardless of some slight SST weakening over the next few months. I think the key areas to watch are W Canada up into E Alaska - don't want to see ridging there collapse as we go forward (i.e. Gulf of Alaska low too far east and too strong would cause it)....and watch the AO/NAO domains for 'help' there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 ^ Another thing that I'd 'like' to see is the Pac jet waves coming into the west coast to enter at a lower latitude, moreso in S California instead of N California and Oregon....easier to keep them suppressed across the south that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Have you been looking at the models? They've had a lot of fantasy snow storms lately...thus why everyone is going from depressed to happy to depressed again. I have no dog in the fight as I'll be out of the country when the fun and games look to start. We just really need the cold to entrench first. That's what the models showed last week happening this week and now it appears the cold is transient. It's simply rare to thread the needle when no real source of cold air. Was thinking the same thing Burger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Have you been looking at the models? They've had a lot of fantasy snow storms lately...thus why everyone is going from depressed to happy to depressed again. I have no dog in the fight as I'll be out of the country when the fun and games look to start. We just really need the cold to entrench first. That's what the models showed last week happening this week and now it appears the cold is transient. It's simply rare to thread the needle when no real source of cold air. Agreed. And while it's going to be plenty cold, it's not cold that we haven't seen before, so it's not that brutal. Combine that with an active STJ and we open up a whole range of possibilities. I just don't think the models will get the surface stuff correct until we get pretty close. Too much going on for them to focus. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The strength of the El Nino related subtropical jet continues to be too much for the East this winter. I would be suprised of anything changed in February. Joe Bastardi even brings it up this morning in his Atmospheric Advenger post. One thing that can be noted is that all of the models have been very hesitant to even spin up fantasy snow storms. At least give them credit for that. All one can do is call it as it is. Euro had a mega fantasy storm on the Saturday 00z run, GFS had a mega fantasy storm yesterday.. Not sure you can claim that last point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 They have spun a few up, but until we get close, they will never get the surface correct. Way too much stuff flying around in my opinion. Been watching the ensembles over on my blog and they've been pretty consistent in their depiction of the upper air features. They've moved around some, but still consistent. I can't help but think that next week is going to surprise a few people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro had a mega fantasy storm on the Saturday 00z run, GFS had a mega fantasy storm yesterday.. Not sure you can claim that last point. Most have been one run fantasty snow storms lately Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Most have been one run fantasty snow storms lately Thanks *moves goalposts* The GFS has had that event around the 23rd for 4 out of the past 5 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 *moves goalposts* The GFS has had that event around the 23rd for 4 out of the past 5 runs. Never any value in discussing 7+ day snow threats, especially from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Was thinking the same thing Burger GREAT posts gents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro Ens mean has a swath of light snow or wintry precip across a good portion of the south from hr 126 to 156 (down into central AL/GA/SC) so there must be some members showing a storm in that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Never any value in discussing 7+ day snow threats, especially from the GFS.So why is it valid to give the models credit for supposedly not producing fantasy storms? If there is no value in discussing them, then why are you making points about the long range?Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The mean has a +1036mb high in Iowa at hr168. 850 0 deg from Jacksonville to Waco, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Never any value in discussing 7+ day snow threats, especially from the GFS.It's a weather forum, right!? That's what we do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Again, more light precip across a cold south from 162 to 198 (even colder than the earlier timeframe)....would have to see the individual members to get the character of the storm, precip, and temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro Ens mean has a swath of light snow or wintry precip across a good portion of the south from hr 126 to 156 (down into central AL/GA/SC) so there must be some members showing a storm in that timeframe That is this weekend I think? I thought that was written off as dead. Sounds like there is still a flickering flame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 For the first wave, looks like the low is too close to the coast for the midlands of sc per 12z eps. climo wise.. but for some reason it still gives us a trace. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It will be interesting to see what we transition into after this nino dies down, will it be weak nina? strong? neutral? I haven't read too many ideas yet on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That is this weekend I think? I thought that was written off as dead. Sounds like there is still a flickering flame. This would be a weaker system after the big cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The EPS is going to look okay for a lot of people. Looks to be trying to give support to the very close OP run we saw today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro Ens mean has a swath of light snow or wintry precip across a good portion of the south from hr 126 to 156 (down into central AL/GA/SC) so there must be some members showing a storm in that timeframe interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Let me go ahead and let Phil know that the Control gives the Florida panhandle some Wintry. But. It's the control.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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