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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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Euro is pretty lost in my opinion also. We have been getting some wild swings from it also. It's very hard to trust the models out past 5 days at the moment.

The last 2 runs of the Euro show differences as early as Thursday. If it can't even handle up till then, we can't trust anything past it.

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Not a GFS fan, but I'll say this, it's been the first to pick up on the idea of warmer and farther north with these systems....so, can't knock it, and it's been better than the Euro suite in that regard.

it's all the northern stream s/w that keep showing up and screwing up the whole conus.
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   There are just so many pieces of energy, that the models have no idea which one will be the trigger. It will happen, but the question is.... who will cash in. It may be the southeast or the deep south. Who knows at this point. We knew this would be the problem with a super El-Nino pattern, Lots of southern stream potential.

   As they say in baseball language "Let's play station to station guys".... meaning, take a few days at a time. Don't look to far out. That's the best way to navigate the waters right now.

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With run to run differences like this I just don't see the value of running this model 4 times a day.  Hopefully in 5 years or so we will have a replacement.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

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I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

Restricting taxpayer funded model data is not the answer.

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I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

 

I am ok with that as long as they don't use my tax dollars to fund it. Otherwise, I should be able to see what I am paying for....

 

Edit.... I see Jon beat me to it...lol

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I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

Even if you explain to to them, they just ask the same question over again. They don't read what gets written, it's either snow or no snow to them.

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Even if you explain to to them, they just ask the same question over again. They don't read what gets written, it's either snow or no snow to them.

That's very true. It's like a lot of the phone calls we get encompassing every customer group. You tell them what's up, confidence, etc, and they either ignore it or continue with the same questions hoping for a different answer or an answer they want. But I regress.

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I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

I think they should limit snowfall maps to 120hrs and in. With all of the factors that can change how much snow an area gets combined with model uncertainty they are of little use anyway.

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I think they should limit snowfall maps to 120hrs and in. With all of the factors that can change how much snow an area gets combined with model uncertainty they are of little use anyway.

Yeah the clown maps dont help. We only output storm total snowfall maps within day 4. I wish we'd cut that to day 3 tho. It always changes and folks sometimes flip out over that.

Mods move this all to banter if you want. Dont want to clog this thread.

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With run to run differences like this I just don't see the value of running this model 4 times a day.  Hopefully in 5 years or so we will have a replacement.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

 

If someone knows please shed some light on something. Aren't the upgrades they are applying to these models give them higher resolution output? If so, isn't that just higher resolution crap? I mean, shouldn't they work on actually getting them more accurate and useful first?

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