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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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So far, any sustained cold weather has remained in the LR. So the eye of the needle will remain really small if and until that changes. At least we're seeing fantasy snow on the Ops now. Remember a few days ago how we were complaining about that? Baby Steps, by Dr. Leo Marvin.

Unfortunately we are wasting this great -NAO, GEFS and EPS completely breakdown the AO/NAO after the 19th. Not sure how bad things get after that. I do think/hope blocking returns in Feb as I think we need it to get anything substantial (+3"). It's a bummer really, this next 10 days could have been really good had the PV just swung east and not split. Oh well, atleast we can win $1.3 billion in the lottery next week, LOL.

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Unfortunately we are wasting this great -NAO, GEFS and EPS completely breakdown the AO/NAO after the 19th. Not sure how bad things get after that. I do think/hope blocking returns in Feb as I think we need it to get anything substantial (+3"). It's a bummer really, this next 10 days could have been really good had the PV just swung east and not split. Oh well, atleast we can win $1.3 billion in the lottery next week, LOL.

By the next drawing, it will probably be at least $1.5B!

And this example illustrates why you can have a favorable alignment of index values and still suck. It's like the Wolfpack always looking decent on paper. You still have to put it together on the field.

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0z Jan 9th EPS run

2 members support op day 5-6 event.

14/51 members get flakes in the area by the 19th

23/51 members by 24th

 

12z Jan 9th EPS update

4/51 have snow in NC for day 5 event

19/51 have snow by 19th in central NC

 

0z Jan 10th EPS update

 

0/51 members have snow for day 5 event

12/51 members have snow for central NC

10/51 members have snow by 19th

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There is good ensemble support for an east coat storm days 7-8 with a track off the coast. The potential in the next 7-10 days is still there, IMO.

 

Was just about to post that...this is so close to being a major winter storm for a lot of NC, I still think w-NC get's on the scoreboard with this one.  I do think the w-NC up through the MA to NE get a good winter storm out of this, curious to see how far this actually climbs though.  Still reminds me of a 1/29/10 event, just this will be warmer.  It was a great shot for alot of folks (non-elevation) but would need some big changes at this point and things are going the wrong with respect to cold air.

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Honestly I don't know what to think about our snow chances. Reading through the post from last night(euro, ensembles, etc.) and you would think we still have a chance in the next 10 days, but looking at the 6z GFS it would say wait until days 10-16. 

Just in a wait mode..

 

Banter***

Talking about the lottery, that is truly an amazing amount of money. Even taking the payout and then taxed, somebody could clear near 600 million. If you invest it wisely you could maybe get neat 2 million a month for the rest of your life. Imagine having an allowance of 2 million a month.  

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You can clearly see lower heights in the AO region and yes you do have higher heights over Greenland but you have lost low heights over Nova Scotia. What do indexes say, can't believe they would read negative? On my phone so hard to check. Not our typical snowy pattern.

Lol if this pattern does not produce then we are cursed this month. As Franklin has just poster that's not a bad look. You say not our snowy pattern but we have seen snow with a lot worst looking patterns. I think the pattern relaxes towards the end of the month to reload for February. Could be wrong but we have seen the indices change from run to run. If we can not produce in a plus pna which looks to strengthen as we go out in time and a negative ao and nao then it's just not our time.
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You can clearly see lower heights in the AO region and yes you do have higher heights over Greenland but you have lost low heights over Nova Scotia. What do indexes say, can't believe they would read negative? On my phone so hard to check. Not our typical snowy pattern.

you can see the heights building back over the pole towards the end of the run. The low over new foundland is from a storm you have high pressure building over Hudson bay and the Davis straits.

If one read your previous post without looking for themselves they would think winter is over. I'll take my chances with that pattern any day of the week.

As far as indices I never look at them as they can be misleading.

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you can see the heights building back over the pole towards the end of the run. The low over new foundland is from a storm you have high pressure building over Hudson bay and the Davis straits.

If one read your previous post without looking for themselves they would think winter is over. I'll take my chances with that pattern any day of the week.

As far as indices I never look at them as they can be misleading.

Never said winter is over, think Feb we will get a 1-2 week stretch like last winter.

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Pack, what are you looking at in regards to the ensembles? Below is the day 10 and day 15 of All globals how is the ao and nao completely broken down?

gefs_z500a_nh_65.png

gefs_z500a_nh_41.png

cmc_z500a_exnamer_65.png

cmc_z500a_exnamer_41.png

He is broke down, not the models! And even if the NAO goes towards positive or neutral, that's the point we get alot of our winter storms, so that will be fine and why the 18-21, will be our shot!
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Looking at the indices from yesterday and it shows the PNA moving more positive in the LR. I think for the last few years that along with the EPO have been the biggest players to help us score winter storms.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

Yep you are correct. The epo was predominantly thr driver of winter. Lol we finally get some blocking and nothing to show for it at the moment. Crazy how patterns work or don't work. We say all we need is blocking and we get blocking then we are like we'll we need something else like a magic wand lol.
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Clear pretty clear we're not going to get these storms in full view until they're coming up on us.  Timing & strength matters a lot with these waves rolling through the STJ.  But I do like seeing the GFS keeping them suppressed and weak in the mid/long range.

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Interestingly, there really is no Euro ensemble support for the solution the operational gives Friday into Saturday. In fact, many of the Euro ensemble members have a nice low tucked a little off the NC coast. That wold obviously be a setup that gives parts of the region a chance.

 

In turn, on the EPS, you sacrifice the system Sunday for the one Friday-Saturday...so the nice little system that pops Sunday on the operational Euro is not there.

 

One other note I will say....I see lots of mentions of blocks not doing the trick and such. The blocks have to actually develop in reality first, and not just in model-land. If a big block actually does develop, that means something totally different than seeing one develop and then fall apart just as quickly in model la-la land.

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Interestingly, there really is no Euro ensemble support for the solution the operational gives Friday into Saturday. In fact, many of the Euro ensemble members have a nice low tucked a little off the NC coast. That wold obviously be a setup that gives parts of the region a chance.

 

In turn, on the EPS, you sacrifice the system Sunday for the one Friday-Saturday...so the nice little system that pops Sunday on the operational Euro is not there.

 

One other note I will say....I see lots of mentions of blocks not doing the trick and such. The blocks have to actually develop in reality first, and not just in model-land. If a big block actually does develop, that means something totally different than seeing one develop and then fall apart just as quickly in model la-la land.

This  :wub: 

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Clear pretty clear we're not going to get these storms in full view until they're coming up on us.  Timing & strength matters a lot with these waves rolling through the STJ.  But I do like seeing the GFS keeping them suppressed and weak in the mid/long range.

 

This X100 people punting the month cause its to warm at the surface a week+ out is hilarious.....the GFS almost NEVER has a winter storm right for NC in the 5-10 day range in a split flow pattern ( hell or any other pattern lol).....the pattern setup assuming the block actually forms screams low off NC moving ENE exactly like we like em. The real question is do models have the overall blocking pattern right or not.....at this point nothing else matters. 

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This X100 people punting the month cause its to warm at the surface a week+ out is hilarious.....the GFS almost NEVER has a winter storm right for NC in the 5-10 day range in a split flow pattern ( hell or any other pattern lol).....the pattern setup assuming the block actually forms screams low off NC moving ENE exactly like we like em. The real question is do models have the overall blocking pattern right or not.....at this point nothing else matters.

There's no way the models have the blocking right because even that hasn't been consistent. At this point who knows if good blocking is actually going to form. Yesterday it looked like everything was gonna break down then maybe not. Too much confusion.
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