downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Good point about the block. Question--Was a block modeled to develop by now? This is the Euro ens from Jan 1 for today...generally the Euro has had the block building in this week and being quite strong by the 15thish......its been generally like that all month....the real blocking has never been forecast to be in place yet really on the Euro at least.. Here is the Euro from Jan 5 00Z run showing Jan 15th and the same panel from the 00Z run last night for the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Thanks Downeast, So we seem to be fairly on schedule it appears. Not under shooting if I read that correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Thanks Downeast, So we seem to be fairly on schedule it appears. Not under shooting if I read that correctly yeah there has been pretty steady support on the Euro Ens for a strong block building around the 15th or so, so we just got to wait and see if it does.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 As far as the modeled block talk, you can take a look at the old NAO forecast trends and tell it wanted to head towards neutral during this time period, when in reality the NAO is staying toward the lower end of the operational forecasts (favoring the block, -NAO). The grey lines are old forecasts. You can see from Jan 6th-Jan10th it wanted to send the NAO neutral, while the observation (blue line) is negative. Same thing is seen on both the Op Euro and Op GFS. Additionally you can see the last 8 forecasts want to keep it negative through at least the 19th.The 8 forecasts you see in color toward the end of the run that are trending neutral or positive, I feel like there's a bias to do that and we will actually still be negative during that time frame in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Folks need to remember that teleconnection theories are the result of much research. The data indicates certain atmospheric tendencies are more favored than others statistically. This does not mean always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Finally looking at the models in depth...pattern looks beautiful for several events for Oh-V, PHL and north, MA will be right on the battle lines. I like what the Euro Para and its ensembles are doing, tracking storms right over us, we cool down after and it repeats. I think western NC can do well in this pattern upcoming. Lots to be excited about, boring mundane is over for the next couple of weeks. The blocking will be weak but just enough to slow things a little to give some big winter storms for the favored areas mentioned above. Strat is getting very interesting, would be great to track a SSWE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Folks need to remember that teleconnection theories are the result of much research. The data indicates certain atmospheric tendencies are more favored than others statistically. This does not mean always. Yep, and indexes don't make it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yep, and indexes don't make it snow. Ha yeah. It's a big leap to say snow is on the way due to a -NAO. A -NAO indicates a prolonged period of below normal temps is probable, which we've seen periods of lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Finally looking at the models in depth...pattern looks beautiful for several events for Oh-V, PHL and north, MA will be right on the battle lines. I like what the Euro Para and its ensembles are doing, tracking storms right over us, we cool down after and it repeats. I think western NC can do well in this pattern upcoming. Lots to be excited about, boring mundane is over for the next couple of weeks. The blocking will be weak but just enough to slow things a little to give some big winter storms for the favored areas mentioned above. Strat is getting very interesting, would be great to track a SSWE.You should move up there and post in their forums, I'm sure you'd be welcomed with open arms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You should move up there and post in their forums, I'm sure you'd be welcomed with open arms Just discussing weather...you want me to lie and tell you it's going to snow, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I see nothing in the LR models that gives me hope for a nice snow in central NC. I see POSSIBILITIES... but nothing that looks too consistent. too much uncertainty. If we get anything, it will pop up within 3-4 days and still change until 0. Matter of fact, in the 18-19 time frame, upper level winds are flattening or ridging...50s close to 60 perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I see nothing in the LR models that gives me hope for a nice snow in central NC. I see POSSIBILITIES... but nothing that looks too consistent. too much uncertainty. If we get anything, it will pop up within 3-4 days and still change until 0. Matter of fact, in the 18-19 time frame, upper level winds are flattening or ridging...50s close to 60 perhaps. The problem with that is the model literally has no skill 8-9 days out, you can't assume any temperatures at the lower levels in day 8-9, can easily change to sustained cold on a flip of a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I just made a post about this in the MA forum. You guys should really like the direction the latest ens runs are heading. The goa vortex retros far enough west for the pna and epo ridges to get pumped up. Long wave pattern digs a trough in the SE with much below normal 850s on the means. It'd quite a signal temp wise for such a long lead. Pattern is amplified over the conus with the door open for vorts to dig down just east of the Rockies and phase and/tap the southern stream. One of the issues were seeing medium term is airmasses getting moderated by pac air running up and over the pna ridge in the west. If the ens are right then that will get cutoff with the potential for cold air to dig south and east. The short story is temps could be less of an issue and the look remains active storm wise. Nobody should be mad at last night's eps run. Looks good at range for the SE and MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I just made a post about this in the MA forum. You guys should really like the direction the latest ens runs are heading. The goa vortex retros far enough west for the pna and epo ridges to get pumped up. Long wave pattern digs a trough in the SE with much below normal 850s on the means. It'd quite a signal temp wise for such a long lead. Pattern is amplified over the conus with the door open for vorts to dig down just east of the Rockies and phase and/tap the southern stream. One of the issues were seeing medium term is airmasses getting moderated by pac air running up and over the pna ridge in the west. If the ens are right then that will get cutoff with the potential for cold air to dig south and east. The short story is temps could be less of an issue and the look remains active storm wise. Nobody should be mad at last night's eps run. Looks good at range for the SE and MA Great post and thanks for keeping spirits up ! All that sounds positive, no matter how many negative nellies we have in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Via WTKR - Norfolk, VA. Patrick Rockey Weather 21 mins · Yep, we've got some snow in the forecast.Anyone surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Great post and thanks for keeping spirits up ! All that sounds positive, no matter how many negative nellies we have in here! Tell pack to post some h5 and mean 850 plots. They look pretty good for SE storm chances. Not to mention the eps has more SE hits than I've seen all year. D15 on the eps has the mean 850 0c line draped over Atlanta. That's impressive for such a long lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Tell pack to post some h5 and mean 850 plots. They look pretty good for SE storm chances. Not to mention the eps has more SE hits than I've seen all year. D15 on the eps has the mean 850 0c line draped over Atlanta. That's impressive for such a long lead.He mostly likes to show maps that give us no chance of snow, and west coast troughs he swears are still showing! I think he makes his own maps, just to hurt snow weenies!I still have hope for the 18th -20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Tell pack to post some h5 and mean 850 plots. They look pretty good for SE storm chances. Not to mention the eps has more SE hits than I've seen all year. D15 on the eps has the mean 850 0c line draped over Atlanta. That's impressive for such a long lead. Agree, days 10+ look OK. The day 7-8 threat is dead down here with that low that splits off and kills our cold air delivery. Hopefully it hits you guys and parts north. But this day 7-8 threat looked great at day 12 for us and now, not so much. I expect that to continue this winter, great fantasy looks day 11+ only to evaporate as we get closer. I see why your pumped, just enough blocking and cold with very active STJ, great great look for MA to NE and interior. Like I have been saying, would take a 98 repeat right now in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agree Bob. With that said the spread of the EPS is out of this world for 1/17-1/18 storm, it's easy to see the model has no clue what will happen. Means have a lot of time to figure this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agree, days 10+ look OK. The day 7-8 threat is dead down here with that low that splits off and kills our cold air delivery. Hopefully it hits you guys and parts north. But this day 7-8 threat looked great at day 12 for us and now, not so much. I expect that to continue this winter, great fantasy looks day 11+ only to evaporate as we get closer. I see why your pumped, just enough blocking and cold with very active STJ, great great look for MA to NE and interior. Like I have been saying, would take a 98 repeat right now in a heartbeat. We're probably effed next weekend too. No big deal. I'm used to it. I know we've been chasing d10+ for days but I think things are coming together this time at least for higher probs. One thing that kept giving me pause is weak ens support for snow even though the mean h5 panels kept looking good. That is changing now. And I have a hunch it will keep looking better this time as we roll forward. For whatever reason, mid Jan is a historical snow hole in the MA. Very few big storms during Jan 10 - 20th throughout history. The last 10 days have been much more friendly. Looks like this year may be no exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agree, days 10+ look OK. The day 7-8 threat is dead down here with that low that splits off and kills our cold air delivery. Hopefully it hits you guys and parts north. But this day 7-8 threat looked great at day 12 for us and now, not so much. I expect that to continue this winter, great fantasy looks day 11+ only to evaporate as we get closer. I see why your pumped, just enough blocking and cold with very active STJ, great great look for MA to NE and interior. Like I have been saying, would take a 98 repeat right now in a heartbeat. To say a 7-8 day threat is dead, is pure silliness ! The models change every run, with huge swings, the only certainty, is uncertainty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 We're probably effed next weekend too. No big deal. I'm used to it. I know we've been chasing d10+ for days but I think things are coming together this time at least for higher probs. One thing that kept giving me pause is weak ens support for snow even though the mean h5 panels kept looking good. That is changing now. And I have a hunch it will keep looking better this time as we roll forward. For whatever reason, mid Jan is a historical snow hole in the MA. Very few big storms during Jan 10 - 20th throughout history. The last 10 days have been much more friendly. Looks like this year may be no exception I like Feb, seems for atleast us, we get a 1-2 week period, that's what I am hoping for. I think the pattern goes to hell by end of Jan for a period, we are going to pay the price for a super strong strat PV. Atleast next weekend looks warm, approaching 60F down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 To say a 7-8 day threat is dead, is pure silliness ! The models change every run, with huge swings, the only certainty, is uncertainty! Ignorance is bliss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Ignorance is blissI'm ignorant then. The models for the 8-9 day period haven't nailed down the low at all. To save this period is already figured it is premature, to say the least. If you assume the eps is correct and take the look verbatim you'll be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well the earlier CMC gave us some so snow on the 19th and 20th. Lets see what the next run brings. I know it's not a top dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I'm ignorant then. The models for the 8-9 day period haven't nailed down the low at all. To save this period is already figured it is premature, to say the least. If you assume the eps is correct and take the look verbatim you'll be in trouble. Agree, the Euro has had the 50/50 low and -NAO peaking from the 15-20th every run for a week+ now, its hard to say that nothing is gonna happen for us then if that does indeed happen....until that changes I have hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I'm only out to 183 on the 12z GFS but it does look different with a digging system in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well the earlier CMC gave us some so snow on the 19th and 20th. Lets see what the next run brings. I know it's not a top dog. Yep hopefully it has this storm sometime in the 17-20th time frame again on the current run....this looks like I would expect given the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yep hopefully it has this storm sometime in the 17-20th time frame again on the current run....this looks like I would expect given the setup That's the 0z from lastnight. lets see what the 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS=boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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