Batman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Folks can pull stats to attempt to prove many things. If you average 50" of snow a winter and are at 0 on Jan. 9, you have a lot of catching up to do. On the other hand, if you average 2" to 10" as most of us do, one or 2 storms get you right to where you are supposed to be or beyond. I have had several really good winters for snow and cold where I had nothing to show until after Jan. 10. On the other hand I have had winters (some with well above average snow) where I was done by January 10. Nino, Nina, neutral are also things you have to take into account when you try to predict what is going to happen based on what has happened thus far. Can't just say "winter has sucked, so it's going to continue to suck". There are some very skilled mets and others more knowledgeable than I that have been trying to make these arguments; however, their arguments get overwhelmed by doom and gloom when computer models do not show that snow is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1966 is my analog http://i.imgur.WDcIuW1.png [/quote I didn't go back 60 years :-) I also stated that I still like a good Feb and 5" for our area and more as you go west. Nobody reads that though...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 If the 0z GFS splits the PV and sends a piece to south/central Canada one more time it's dead to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 If the 0z GFS splits the PV and sends a piece to south/central Canada one more time it's dead to me.So you would then be done watching the model runs for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Gfs is closer to a phase at 90 hours but don't think it's gonna pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So you would then be done watching the model runs for next week? LOL...well of course GFS is going to make me eat my words. Splits it again which bottles up the cold, this is a day 4-5 development so GFS should have some skill....time for bed. This run is toast for any snow inside day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Gfs is closer to a phase at 90 hours but don't think it's gonna pull it off. nope...no big changes so far through 132, system is a bit more north that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 nope...no big changes so far through 132, system is a bit more north that's it.it was a little more interesting but not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Who cares if there are storms, temps in the 40s and 50s, aren't conducive for snow! If the GFS is wrong about indices , temps , vort placement , and PV location, then there is still a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 nice! The cold is nothing but rapidly transient.The talk of blocking is of no value this winter when countered with the power of the El Niño induced pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Who cares if there are storms, temps in the 40s and 50s, aren't conducive for snow! If the GFS is wrong about indices , temps , vort placement , and PV location, then there is still a chance! Is it looking good for anyone ? Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, Northeast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Is it looking good for anyone ? Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, Northeast ?Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The cold is nothing but rapidly transient. The talk of blocking is of no value this winter But there is blocking like we haven't seen in years! The cold will hold, and no cutters!!! lol Blocking gone with the wind................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 00z GFS looks Miller B-ish at 174hrs no cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Who cares if there are storms, temps in the 40s and 50s, aren't conducive for snow! If the GFS is wrong about indices , temps , vort placement , and PV location, then there is still a chance! LOL...this run was toast at 96 hours when the PV over HB split and a piece went to south central Canada, blocks all the cold and we are left with same old same old...inland runner, warm east and cold west. If it doesn't split it and sends it all east we probably see a snowstorm day 7-8 #cuttersgonnacut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I hear CMC is a fail for Thursday as well so that means fail for the weekend as well I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 LOL...this run was toast at 96 hours when the PV over HB split and a piece went to south central Canada, blocks all the cold and we are left with same old same old...inland runner, warm east and cold west. If it doesn't split it and sends it all east we probably see a snowstorm day 7-8 #cuttersgonnacut. OP GFS is gonna OP GFS, you mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It actually pops a decent low and the storm is there, sub 1000mb bomb off of NC...problem is the PV split like NCrain said, no cold to work with...but for people concerned about models losing the storm, this should take care of that. The cold is the bigger issue most should be focusing on. Low is 995mb way off HAT on SV, so yeah, that's a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It actually pops a decent low and the storm is there, sub 1000mb bomb off of NC...problem is the PV split like NCrain said, no cold to work with...but for people concerned about models losing the storm, this should take care of that. The cold is the bigger issue most should be focusing on. But if cold shows up, Storms will not! We can't seem to have it both ways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 OP GFS is gonna OP GFS, you mean... LOL...it's a concern, if it's not one thing it's a hundred others. #nonsnowynino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It actually pops a decent low and the storm is there, sub 1000mb bomb off of NC...problem is the PV split like NCrain said, no cold to work with...but for people concerned about models losing the storm, this should take care of that. The cold is the bigger issue most should be focusing on. Low is 995mb way off HAT on SV, so yeah, that's a storm. I agree Jon. Like pack said when the PV splits it blocks the cold. The CMC splits the PV also but comes back later in the run and brings in the cold. It also brings NC snow on 1/20 but that's way too far off to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 00z cmc on the 19th for the win!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 If it doesn't split the PV, either its suppressed into oblivion or we have a snowstorm. Blank page at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 00z GFS has snow for Central NC on the 20th @240 hrs so there's that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pretty good model consensus on that low being there....Uk/GFS/CMC/Para-Euro. This kills snow chances the next 10 days. Oh well, Feb will be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 00z GFS has snow for Central NC on the 20th @240 hrs so there's that... As does the CMC. #alwaystendaysaway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It's almost worth this hot mess to see how JB squirms out of this. This Nino just doesn't want to snow in the east, hard to fathom but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It's almost worth this hot mess to see how JB squirms out of this. This Nino just doesn't want to snow in the east, hard to fathom but it is what it is. Pack - go to bed and try again tomorrow, haha. This winter isn't close to being over. Check out the EXCAM http://models.wxmidwest.com/ Not saying this is going to happen verbatim, but there's not a single bad look at 500mb for any of the weeks available or the month of February. And a lot of those have awesome snowy Nino looks for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Not surprising. Yet again, the GFS was totally darn lost past hr132 just about.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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