Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Early week cold shot really modified today with 30's and low 40's . Was hoping the 20's were legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What a weenie 18z GFS run... cold and clippers followed by a couple more robust synoptic systems. Time to build the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The initial PNA ridge "folds over" into central Canada, and that's where we warm up a bit at the end of week 1 in January...but after that we reload even bigger it looks pretty damned good for a winter wx pattern. Yea, well modeled reprieve near mid month.....well modeled....NBD. Chance to batten down the hatches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks ok for far NNE. Rest of the region not so much . Thankfully it's the GFS. After yesterday, I doubt most mets are even looking at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I wouldn't put much stock into an operational run of the GFS that is for 300 plus hours out...even if it showed us with feet and feet. Pattern is looking quite good going forward, that is all anybody can ask at this point. Will it bear any fruit? Nobody can answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 We are heading in the right direction. Hopefully it's it will be as good as the snow hounds are saying it will be....Jan 78 comparisons and all. But even N temps with an active S jet would do wonders cuz the last thing we need is cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Every cold day from now to 1/15 is gravy. The pattern really won't set in till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Every cold day from now to 1/15 is gravy. The pattern really won't set in till then. Jerry, I've been saying that beginning December 3rd and haven't wavered since then. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47321-december-medlong-range-disco/?p=3781463 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 We have two developing chances at a snowstorm, or at least snowfall, one is the 2nd and 3rd of January, it is a clipper that moves too far northeast currently to matter, but the shortwave in charge continues to dive further and further southwest so we have that going for us and the next storm system is for January 6-8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks ok for far NNE. Rest of the region not so much . Thankfully it's the GFS. After yesterday, I doubt most mets are even looking at it Eh' I'm happy as long as the pattern is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Eh' I'm happy as long as the pattern is active. Close the shades until after 1/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Close the shades until after 1/15.you can't be serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 you can't be serious Deadly so. It looks like we're entering a seasonable/dry period until the real change comes. Maybe we sneak a light event or two in? Please don't mistake that post for complaining or whining. The pattern just doesn't look to become active until around or after 1/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Close the shades until after 1/15. I say close the shades until 1/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I say close the shades until 1/5 More like 1/8-1/10 in NYC...1/15 in the MA and 1/20-125 in the SE. I think everyone sees something but its gonna be awhile for people south of DC and RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I say close the shades until 1/5 I think you're right. Not long to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I think you're right. Not long to wait. More like 1/5-1/10 but it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 U guys know where to find that stratospheric temp plot and how it compares to mean and extreme values since 1979? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Deadly so. It looks like we're entering a seasonable/dry period until the real change comes. Maybe we sneak a light event or two in? Please don't mistake that post for complaining or whining. The pattern just doesn't look to become active until around or after 1/15. I just think close the shades means heat and no winter. The Euro Ens has a legit great period the 11th on and we may squeeze out something prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 U guys know where to find that stratospheric temp plot and how it compares to mean and extreme values since 1979? http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I just think close the shades means heat and no winter. The Euro Ens has a legit great period the 11th on and we may squeeze out something prior.My bad. I just meant close the shades for an active pattern. It will definitely feel like deep winter with seasonable temps after 70F on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I will take a nickel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Close the shades until after 1/15. Pretty close.....maybe 10th at the earliest. Boooorrriinng 'til then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Pretty close.....maybe 10th at the earliest. Boooorrriinng 'til then. 0z GFS is way different than the 18z run. It's more active and a lot colder. It has 2 snowstorms chances ( Jan 10-11 and Jan 13-14 ). Expect more changes ahead with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I just think close the shades means heat and no winter. The Euro Ens has a legit great period the 11th on and we may squeeze out something prior. Perfectly stated. Although I might move the 11th to the 15th given the propensity for guidance to be too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Stating the obvious is getting the cold into the Northeast, check! The LW pattern albeit slowly is modeled to be more conducive, half-check there Throw in a couple of s/w and wallah. no checks because of the chaos and multiple nuances leading up to popping something. Bottom line is feeling and looking like winter going forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 00z GFS produces .150" of QPF for the OES event on the 4th, this is a lot of precip for a modeled event again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Can we make a separate OES thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Can we make a separate OES thread? I think a thread of one member constitutes a blog...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Well, yesterday was like being on a 40 day fast and then getting a bowl of Cheerios, it definitely wets the appetite for more action but the models and the pattern don't seem to be delivering much over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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