Randy4Confluence Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 At least it's reasonable between now and mid month...nothing over-the-top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I was just about to mention that system dryslot. Potent upper level vort max entering the arctic flow, strong 700mb inflow and negative tilt towards the 700mb isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 700mb moisture return strengthens and goes from south to north as the 700mb trough reaches the Eastern Seaboard, it might be too late still verbatim and the trough axis is still too far east for a substantial storm, but maybe some light snow is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well if it's mid month then that's getting awfully close to latest inch ever which is Jan 26th Where ORH? Won't they get an inch by tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Where ORH? Won't they get an inch by tomorrow? I think he's using BDL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think he's using BDL now. Lol...I think they will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We don't live in NYC. It's extremely late for snow here. Almost unprecedented What weather is "precedented" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Where ORH? Won't they get an inch by tomorrow?BDL and BOS. Both aren't getting an inch tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 BDL and BOS. Both aren't getting an inch tomorrow BOS should get an inch...even if they have to use pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 BOS should get an inch...even if they have to use pellets. BDL could get an inch of pellets too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 BDL could get an inch of pellets too.Hour of sleet then all zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That is a frigid ECMWF run early next week. Monday morning it has lows here at MVL of -16F and same at IZG, and a high of +2F for Monday then negative teens again Monday night. Widespread below zero temps in NNE with lows in the single digits and teens in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 That is a frigid ECMWF run early next week. Monday morning it has lows here at MVL of -16F and same at IZG, and a high of +2F for Monday then negative teens again Monday night. Widespread below zero temps in NNE with lows in the single digits and teens in SNE. Any snow besides upslope ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Any snow besides upslope ? Negative. High and dry....or well cold and dry days 6-9. But that airmass would definitely feel like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That is a frigid ECMWF run early next week. Monday morning it has lows here at MVL of -16F and same at IZG, and a high of +2F for Monday then negative teens again Monday night. Widespread below zero temps in NNE with lows in the single digits and teens in SNE. That delivery is about as optimal as possible for cold in NE...almost straight out of the north. Maybe only a NNE direction is more optimal, but it is really hard to get huge cold outbreaks from that direction...usually just cold drain. But having that core of cold come in from almost due north would be really cold stuff. Very little moderation or adiabatic warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I disagree ... the "pattern" is in a state of flux - which I outlined how/why in that other thread no one seems to care about. But the change there in is one featured by a powerful PNA signal in the tele's of both agencies, and given to the fact that it is only just begun in that process, model/guidance could at any time "break" toward bigger events ...it'd just be a matter of having yet seen/detected them in the flow, more so, a flow that constructively interferes. Also, the AO is tanking in the middle and ext range, with now every GEFs member there is hugely descended less than 0 SD by D7-10. The D8-10 ensemble means of the operationals also indicate a splitting in the ambient polar field. Interesting that there are so few stratospheric markers leading...but it is what it is. We've seen AO both sides 0 with few leading indicators, in the past, so it can happen. Be that as it may, the MJO is just getting ready to enter the 7th Phase space and is set to strengthen there, and the correlation is perfect for super-imposing constructively over a +PNA...and the two may very well score a coupe over ennui if given time. gotta think outside the box folks - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 The cold is great. Just wish we had some snow OTG to enjoy it. Oh well. At least cold comes. Maybe some clipper will appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I disagree ... the "pattern" is in a state of flux - which I outlined how/why in that other thread no one seems to care about. But the change there in is one featured by a powerful PNA signal in the tele's of both agencies, and given to the fact that it is only just begun in that process, model/guidance could at any time "break" toward bigger events ...it'd just be a matter of having yet seen/detected them in the flow, more so, a flow that constructively interferes. Also, the AO is tanking in the middle and ext range, with now every GEFs member there is hugely descended less than 0 SD by D7-10. The D8-10 ensemble means of the operationals also indicate a splitting in the ambient polar field. Interesting that there are so few stratospheric markers leading...but it is what it is. We've seen AO both sides 0 with few leading indicators, in the past, so it can happen. Be that as it may, the MJO is just getting ready to enter the 7th Phase space and is set to strengthen there, and the correlation is perfect for super-imposing constructively over a +PNA...and the two may very well score a coupe over ennui if given time. gotta think outside the box folks - What do you disagree with and what are we thinking outside the box about? What is this in reference to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GEFS are getting really weenieish at the end of their run...they have been trending that way, but this is pretty impressive....we will see if we can get the Euro ensembles to dive in with more Atlantic help. Euro likes the big -EPO idea but have been cool to the idea of more Atlantic blocking. The Atlantic helps push that PV down into SE Canada more. I also love that when you combine the STJ undercutting the EPO/PNA ridge. That would scream lot of snowstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GEFS are getting really weenieish at the end of their run...they have been trending that way, but this is pretty impressive....we will see if we can get the Euro ensembles to dive in with more Atlantic help. Euro likes the big -EPO idea but have been cool to the idea of more Atlantic blocking. The Atlantic helps push that PV down into SE Canada more. I also love that when you combine the STJ undercutting the EPO/PNA ridge. That would scream lot of snowstorm chances. Mid Jan.78 coming up now for a couple of days on the GFS analogs for days 11-15, yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GEFS are getting really weenieish at the end of their run...they have been trending that way, but this is pretty impressive....we will see if we can get the Euro ensembles to dive in with more Atlantic help. Euro likes the big -EPO idea but have been cool to the idea of more Atlantic blocking. The Atlantic helps push that PV down into SE Canada more. I also love that when you combine the STJ undercutting the EPO/PNA ridge. That would scream lot of snowstorm chances. Yeah that's a solid look. Potential. Hopefully realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Methinks the rubber band hath snapeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That delivery is about as optimal as possible for cold in NE...almost straight out of the north. Maybe only a NNE direction is more optimal, but it is really hard to get huge cold outbreaks from that direction...usually just cold drain. But having that core of cold come in from almost due north would be really cold stuff. Very little moderation or adiabatic warming. Very little moderation, sure, no lakes in the way. But no adiabatic warming? Nope. Average elevations in the source region for Quebec/Labrador cold are pretty high, and that air is sinking all the way into the St. Lawrence / Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Very little moderation, sure, no lakes in the way. But no adiabatic warming? Nope. Average elevations in the source region for Quebec/Labrador cold are pretty high, and that air is sinking all the way into the St. Lawrence / Champlain Valley. Comparably though, its nothing like air masses dropping out of NW Canada through the northern Rockies and into the Canadian prairies. The elevations in the source region are like 1,000-2,000ft. Not like 10,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Very little moderation, sure, no lakes in the way. But no adiabatic warming? Nope. Average elevations in the source region for Quebec/Labrador cold are pretty high, and that air is sinking all the way into the St. Lawrence / Champlain Valley. Adiabatic is probably the wrong word...orographic would be more like it...much less compressional warming as the air drains down all the river valleys vs coming in from the west when we get downsloped first off the Catskills/Dacks and then again off the Berkshires/Taconics/Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 When BOS goes subzero, this is typically how it's done. I believe last year was an exception probably due to deep snow pack everywhere and ridiculously cold source regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Adiabatic is probably the wrong word...orographic would be more like it...much less compressional warming as the air drains down all the river valleys vs coming in from the west when we get downsloped first off the Catskills/Dacks and then again off the Berkshires/Taconics/Greens. Ahh you were talking much more locally. I thought it was in reference to stuff dropping out of northwest Canada into the prairies lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ahh you were talking much more locally. I thought it was in reference to stuff dropping out of northwest Canada into the prairies lol. We see it all the time...if you get an airmass that drops south into the lakes/OH Valley and then eastward, that's a much worse delivery for us. Straight out of Quebec or Eastern Ontario is optimal. The fact that the major mountain ranges run mostly north/south makes for much more optimal cold delivery when the airmasses run north/south parallel to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We see it all the time...if you get an airmass that drops south into the lakes/OH Valley and then eastward, that's a much worse delivery for us. Straight out of Quebec or Eastern Ontario is optimal. The fact that the major mountain ranges run mostly north/south makes for much more optimal cold delivery when the airmasses run north/south parallel to the mountains. Yeah definitely makes a lot of sense...letting it ooze down the north-south valleys between the Spines/Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just get us the cold and it shall be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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