40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 as an old man of winter once posted, fuk um. Lol jk Yea, don't give a rat's zzz who says what. I know what is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 as an old man of winter once posted, fuk um. Lol jk I think unlike last year when the first weeks of the pattern change were dry this year we'll have fun right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I agree Jerry, fun will begin right as the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z EURO has a 1008mb low just se of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 at hour 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Uh oh....CFS v.2 got the memo that winter is coming....LMBO:Question is....will all the warm weenies who've tortured winter weather lovers with CFS image keep posting & tweeting them now. :) :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That climate model is just abismol...period!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That climate model is just abismol...period!! No, no, no.....all I've heard the last 3 months is that while the seasonal doesn't do well the monthlies are really good. They're right, the monthlies usually are not bad. But will they still be tooting that horn now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I was meaning more the seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 0z Euro shows a -NAO ,-AO and +PNA THE TRIFECTAAAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 @antmasiello long story short, the PV is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 0z Euro a -NAO ,-AO and +PNA THE TRIFECTAAAA Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Not yet. I'm stating what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm stating what it shows. But it doesnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 But it doesnt.Anthony is right it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Scandanavian style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I Don't see on the LR 0z ec. +pna yes, -nao not so much. Still looks like lower heights over the nao region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I Don't see on the LR 0z ec. +pna yes, -nao not so much. Still looks like lower heights over the nao region. It's an eastern -NAO block...not Davis Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hmmm..ok my bad I'm wrong then. Point taken and learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I like east based -Nao for up here, and most of NE as I think it tend to not shunt storms out to see and off to the east too quickly....I think storm can come further north, yet it still helps keep cold in, I think. Is that right? I don't like strong Davis St. blocks for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 He was referring to what I mentioned yesterday and today. I just said have to make sure ridge isn't too far east. I didn't see anything to torchy though. Just typical oscillations. The thing is, the MJO should actually weaken before getting to phase 8. The phase 7 composite is the much more favorable and is a good precursor pattern to the SSWs and an overall more favorable NAM look. That being said, it does look like the trough axis will initially be too far east to start the month, but hopefully we can still get light events or clippers from the pattern. The much more favorable look should wait until the 11-15+ day period. It seems pretty far out, but considering the location of true tropical forcing close to the Dateline and the overwhelmingly favorable signals for the proper precursor pattern to occur in the short term, it increases the odds (much higher than usual) for the 11-15+ day progs to be correct. Also helps that there is strong ensemble agreement as well and it's not just the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I like east based -Nao for up here, and most of NE as I think it tend to not shunt storms out to see and off to the east too quickly....I think storm can come further north, yet it still helps keep cold in, I think. Is that right? I don't like strong Davis St. blocks for up here. yeah i think that's sounds right. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It does look like PV finally getting bounced around by a more wave 2 kind of pattern. Definitely a more favorable MJO too. I haven't had the chance to look at the extended in greater depth so tough to say how long it lasts. A piece of the tropospheric vortex is modeled to be in a shape that sort of makes it a bit tougher to get good storms until maybe later in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It does look like PV finally getting bounced around by a more wave 2 kind of pattern. Definitely a more favorable MJO too. I haven't had the chance to look at the extended in greater depth so tough to say how long it lasts. A piece of the tropospheric vortex is modeled to be in a shape that sort of makes it a bit tougher to get good storms until maybe later in the 11-15 day.we are headed down a familiar path, game on. Timing similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 we are headed down a familiar path, game on. Timing similar to last year. Well, not sure we hold that through March as there is the chance is breaks down a bit after mid month. But, it's a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Well, not sure we hold that through March as there is the chance is breaks down a bit after mid month. But, it's a good look.once the AO is toast, open the door Katy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This from Mike Ventrice: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/681158308183412737 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Fwiw, CFS2 has flipped on January, especially down here. Not much of a trend needed for it to have you guys BN. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20151227.201601.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ginx, down this way I'd sure like to see a trough off Japan, but it still looks as good as I've seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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