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Damage In Tolland

January 2016 Pattern Disco

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The first week or so of Jan looks to be fairly wintry with 1-2 potential snow/ice events and a cold period centered around 2-5.

 After that the ENS breakdown the decent pattern and really torch the N tier.

 

ECMWF-EPS_500mbHgtanom_nhem_f360.png   

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I'm not worried past the 5th of January yet, I think we have more of a sustained +PNA pattern and with the AO going negative too at the beginning of the month, I would be on a colder pattern evolving longer than the models have indicated so far.

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That's a split flow on the eps map shown by Kevin and while not cold, beware of sneaky cold and potentially well timed events. Nothing at all like the current ridiculous warmth.

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That's a split flow on the eps map shown by Kevin and while not cold, beware of sneaky cold and potentially well timed events. Nothing at all like the current ridiculous warmth.

Right, it's not cold or torch..But it is an AN pattern ..If we time storms right ..like the one Monday night/Tuesday we can still get wintry precip. But it's not a pattern that will sustain snow OTG or cold

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Right, it's not cold or torch..But it is an AN pattern ..If we time storms right ..like the one Monday night/Tuesday we can still get wintry precip., But it's not a pattern that will sustain snow OTG or cold

It's a step in the right direction. Snow retention is so last winter...

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Who cares about retention, last year was so historic in that it had 30+ inches on the ground for Harwich (Outer Cape Cod, MA), it is so rare to see such sustained cold, what matters is the total snowfall accumulation.

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I don't think Kevin's map looked bad at all.  Room for the PNA to amplify as that low is far enough west.  Snow retention would be fine up here and that map would provide lots of opportunities.  LC quite enthusiastic it seems.  Also, I saw this period as a step down, not a 60 day period of unremitting cold and snow.

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Right, it's not cold or torch..But it is an AN pattern ..If we time storms right ..like the one Monday night/Tuesday we can still get wintry precip. But it's not a pattern that will sustain snow OTG or cold

 

Of course, that's an (understandable) SNE viewpoint.  The period Jan-Feb 2008 ran +3 around here but it featured nearly 70" snowfall and huge snowpack. - and that winter showed the strongest latitudinal gradient of any of Will's snowfall maps.  ;)

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If that happens and it now appears likely, those forecasts of mid and late Jan pattern change to cold are in deep deep trouble . Then we are left with 28 days in Feb to hope we salvage a bit of winter

 

I had cold and tumble weeds to show for it last January until the 24th. Who cares if it's +3 if it means a good storm or two. It likely may not be a snowpack winter for you, but the hope is to try and take advantage of the storms we have...which hopefully will be more than normal..even if it means ptype issues.

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I had cold and tumble weeds to show for it last January until the 24th. Who cares if it's +3 if it means a good storm or two. It likely may not be a snowpack winter for you, but the hope is to try and take advantage of the storms we have...which hopefully will be more than normal..even if it means ptype issues.

Oh I know. This is not a winter for mine and Will's pack fetish. This is the winter of snow to ice to rain and you hope it's a net gain. Then we torch for 3-4 days and maybe a repeat or 2 of that ensue. Even Feb as some think is not going to be overly snowy. Just a few threats , cold for a few days, torch then another storm

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Oh I know. This is not a winter for mine and Will's pack fetish. This is the winter of snow to ice to rain and you hope it's a net gain. Then we torch for 3-4 days and maybe a repeat or 2 of that ensue. Even Feb as some think is not going to be overly snowy. Just a few threats , cold for a few days, torch then another storm

 

I didn't imply any of that. It could be a cold Feb...but all I said is that I wouldn't expect 2015 to walk through that door. I didn't say every storm is snow to rain. :lol:

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I'm above average on snowfall, why would I melt down? lol

you are in the sweet spot and I hope you keep getting hammered but to write this winter off as a ratter is crazy. Long long way to go

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you are in the sweet spot and I hope you keep getting hammered but to write this winter off as a ratter is crazy. Long long way to go

I already told ray over a month ago I was in the warm below normal snow camp.  The trends of lack of blocking just reinforces that.

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Just a lot of bad things culminated to have this happen this winter

only thing unexpected was the extra above normal in Dec otherwise winter arrives on schedule, enjoy the ride all the way into April

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I already told ray over a month ago I was in the warm below normal snow camp. The trends of lack of blocking just reinforces that.

look for the transient blocks to again rear their heads, beginning of the end for super PV, long long way to go.

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look for the transient blocks to again rear their heads, beginning of the end for super PV, long long way to go.

meh...you guys can always get lucky...but I haven't seen much that says favorable or better than average pattern-wise.

 

Obviously we're moderating and it's not as bad as the torch december, but that doesn't mean good, either.

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meh...you guys can always get lucky...but I haven't seen much that says favorable or better than average pattern-wise.

Obviously we're moderating and it's not as bad as the torch december, but that doesn't mean good, either.

We should have a forecast-your-thoughts-for-the-rest-of-the-season thread...just to finalize where people think we are headed in terms of temp departures and snowfall.

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