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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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GFS and ECM want to relocate the PV to Hudson Bay in the long range, so a definite improvement.

yes and an elongated look. Seems to be as predicted, late Dec attack another in Mid Jan leading to a SSW. I see absolutely no reason that Rays outlook doesn't pan out. We should at minimum reach climo norms for snow.IMHO
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850mb temps drop down to -30C to -40C over the Great Lakes and Ontario, Canada by day 10, this PV lobe could mean serious business if flow remains amplified downstream.  A monster nor'easter could ensue with such a high temperature differential.  Explosive deepening is possible if PV lobe can dive west of us and then south.

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850mb temps drop down to -30C to -40C over the Great Lakes and Ontario, Canada by day 10, this PV lobe could mean serious business if flow remains amplified downstream.  A monster nor'easter could ensue with such a high temperature differential.  Explosive deepening is possible if PV lobe can dive west of us and then south.

GFS is cold from Jan 1 onward.

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The CFS continues to back off the warmth for January.  It's gone from +6 to maybe +2 for its January forecast for our area and the trend has been downward over the last week of runs as we get closer to January.  Now whether this means a month of mostly average temperatures, or, a roller coaster ride of warmth and cold remains to be seen, but the hope is we'll be getting some chances for wintry weather coming up after having a December that gave us essentially no snow.

 

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