Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 So there is conflicting guidance on first week of Jan? Some with cold and some with AN...what are the thoughts?see no conflicts on ENS. Are you talking about Op runs LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Op Runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 So there is conflicting guidance on first week of Jan? Some with cold and some with AN...what are the thoughts? Next weekend (1/2-3) look bn. Week of 1/4 to me is near normal per ensembles but evolution of pattern is decent. It looks to support a pattern of 30s days 20 nights give or take and of course there can be small cold plunges along with mini torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Next weekend (1/2-3) look bn. Week of 1/4 to me is near normal per ensembles but evolution of pattern is decent. It looks to support a pattern of 30s days 20 nights give or take and of course there can be small cold plunges along with mini torches.Yeah I guess what I'm saying is I think we get there thru some big melt days and then cold shots. It sucks for whomever gets snow on Tuesday to watch it all melt away by Wed nite/ Thursday.. But I think that's the gist of the winter. Pack fetishes FTL with alternating AN, BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah I guess what I'm saying is I think we get there thru some big melt days and then cold shots. It sucks for whomever gets snow on Tuesday to watch it all melt away by Wed nite/ Thursday.. But I think that's the gist of the winter. Pack fetishes FTL with alternating AN, BNyep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Does anyone have access to 11-15 day Euro Ensembles?. Would like to see how this pattern change is evolving today in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Does anyone have access to 11-15 day Euro Ensembles?. Would like to see how this pattern change is evolving today in the long range.from Jan 1 to Jan 9 850 temps don't rise above -5 on the EPS, some real cold and some moderation, at the end beginning to see a great pattern setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 from Jan 1 to Jan 9 850 temps don't rise above -5 on the EPS, some real cold and some moderation, at the end beginning to see a great pattern setting up Ginx , check out how the CFS is spreading the warmth back W across Canada and into AK picking up on the - EPO+PNA DT thinks it will take a little time to catch it completely , but it looks like the + 4 in SNE is now + 2 . Workable for you guys . https://www.wxrisk.c...snowstorm-page/ Now many people are wondering how come the latest CFS models are not showing this much colder trend. Their several reasons for this. To begin with if you are using the CFS from the CPC site it must be remember that that particular version of the CFS is based upon the last 10 days of data (and 4 times a day) so it is going to take a while to see if this trend from the EURO & CFS actually shows up on the CFS model. In addition if you take a look at the Teleconnections from the CFS we see something very different. For example the PNA out to the 21st of January is quite weak and not nearly as amplified as on the other models. This is also the case with how the CFS is handling the AO which essentially keeps it neutral right through the 21st to 22nd and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 operational models are at odds with regards to upper level energy spilling through the arctic jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 There is no more doubt. Its going to happen....those who are STILL ambivalent are in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 either these 00z ops runs will show a better chance for storms, or the 12z tomorrow runs will do so, eventually they will figure out all of these arctic jet energetic disturbances and determine if they are worth of producing a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z GFS brings a piece of the polar vortex southward through central Canada and Hudson Bay region around hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z GFS is super close to producing a nor'easter snowstorm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z GFS is super close to producing a nor'easter snowstorm for SNE.I am interested as I told you at the GTG in the ULL progged to drop out of Ontario Jan 2-3, looks like a potent vort max, watching that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yes Steve, that's a vort max straight out of the arctic circle, as in arctic jet stream, once that reaches the Gulf Stream, explosive cyclogenesis seems probable at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yes Steve, that's a vort max straight out of the arctic circle, as in arctic jet stream, once that reaches the Gulf Stream, explosive cyclogenesis seems probable at that point. It's going to be difficult for models to pick out nuances like that so long in advance. Things could pop up at short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yes Steve, that's a vort max straight out of the arctic circle, as in arctic jet stream, once that reaches the Gulf Stream, explosive cyclogenesis seems probable at that point.well Id tame down the explosive stuff but potent ULLs with cold cores going just south of us like to produce at minimum a general light to moderate snow, if blocked then they can really develop. Not seeing any blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If true this is a look we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 According to some on twitter, the only pattern change is the NAO going from super + to just +. I'm confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If true this is a look we like. That's a great look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 According to some on twitter, the only pattern change is the NAO going from super + to just +. I'm confused That is correct but there are other domains that change significantly more than the NAO. The AO looks to go negative though I am not convinced it stays there. The EPO goes negative too. Not super negative but it should get a colder pattern in here with the big PNA spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A second potent shortwave trough tries to get a norlun trough going just northeast of Provincetown, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Geezus look at AK, thats 4 sub 960s in less than 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 According to some on twitter, the only pattern change is the NAO going from super + to just +. I'm confusedthats pretty dumb. PNA was negative too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That is correct but there are other domains that change significantly more than the NAO. The AO looks to go negative though I am not convinced it stays there. The EPO goes negative too. Not super negative but it should get a colder pattern in here with the big PNA spike. Yeah I've been reading a lot lately about potential changes in those domains..and not particularly the NAO so it was interesting that it was singled out as the only pattern change from that twitter source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If true this is a look we like. Surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's a pretty good look on the GEFS in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's a pretty good look on the GEFS in the 11-15 day.cant even comprehend how some are insisting there is no pattern change. These are not weenies either, blows my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think for our area. It's a huge pattern change. Further south may need more nao help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think for our area. It's a huge pattern change. Further south may need more nao help.as an old man of winter once posted, fuk um. Lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.