Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Someone a while ago said, 'ho-hum' in deference to the pattern through mid month, and I couldn't disagree more. i don't have to time go back through - just a statement i noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The European ensembles were great at the end of their run too, last night. They took the Hudson Bay vortex and retrograde it just enough to send a trough axis down into the Midwest area, which is perfect for a good storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Someone a while ago said, 'ho-hum' in deference to the pattern through mid month, and I couldn't disagree more. i don't have to time go back through - just a statement i noticed. I don't think anything good happens during first week at least. Just cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Someone a while ago said, 'ho-hum' in deference to the pattern through mid month, and I couldn't disagree more. i don't have to time go back through - just a statement i noticed. Ahh gotcha. I thought it was about the cold air on the EURO that Will and I were talking about that you disagreed with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ahh gotcha. I thought it was about the cold air on the EURO that Will and I were talking about that you disagreed with. heh, that's part and parcel to the excitability of it all... but, understood that some enthusiasts in weather are particular and don't share that fascination for broader spectrum of events - tru dhat. If we got a bear ground 0 F day tho - Wow! ...heck, that'd be amazing at 9 F although, we could be perfectly situated for something like that if continental snow is near the door step, and mother nature leaves the door open - nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We see it all the time...if you get an airmass that drops south into the lakes/OH Valley and then eastward, that's a much worse delivery for us. Straight out of Quebec or Eastern Ontario is optimal. The fact that the major mountain ranges run mostly north/south makes for much more optimal cold delivery when the airmasses run north/south parallel to the mountains. Well there's a couple of different issues here: (1) the average elevations of the source regions for our cold is pretty much 2000ft across the board, whether its the Praries, Quebec, etc. (2) but that's not the end of the inquiry. the issue here is that the air has moisture. (3) the single most important way that our arctic air masses get modified is the lakes. The lakes modify the air masses in two ways. First, and most importantly, they add moisture to the air (more on this later). Second, and less importantly, they directly warm the air. (4) The moisture added to the air ends up warming the airmass through latent heat release. The N/S or NE/SW trending ranges between us and the Lakes squeeze out much of the lake moisture and that's why the downslope is warmer. Adiabatic heating doesn't alter the characteristics of the airmass without a moisture source. (5) The N/S or NE/SW trend of the ranges tends to encourage shallow drainage of cold air (and damming of cold air in certain conditions) but doesn't really modify our coldest airmasses. Pretty much any trajectory you can model involves a parcel of air sinking and rising and sinking 1500 feet between the source region and the coast. (6) snowcover also prevents modification of airmasses from the reradiation of heat energy absorbed from insolation (7) A NNW-NNE trajectory minimizes time over bare ground, mostly, and avoids the lakes. That's why it delivers the best cold. That would be true even if the mountains weren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just saw on CNBC someone from Bespoke Weather Services saying that the 2nd half of January will probably see severe cold from the polar regions dropping into the midwest and northeast. That helps explain why natural gas is up 10% today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 End of EC, from 10th on has a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well there's a couple of different issues here: (1) the average elevations of the source regions for our cold is pretty much 2000ft across the board, whether its the Praries, Quebec, etc. (2) but that's not the end of the inquiry. the issue here is that the air has moisture. (3) the single most important way that our arctic air masses get modified is the lakes. The lakes modify the air masses in two ways. First, and most importantly, they add moisture to the air (more on this later). Second, and less importantly, they directly warm the air. (4) The moisture added to the air ends up warming the airmass through latent heat release. The N/S or NE/SW trending ranges between us and the Lakes squeeze out much of the lake moisture and that's why the downslope is warmer. Adiabatic heating doesn't alter the characteristics of the airmass without a moisture source. (5) The N/S or NE/SW trend of the ranges tends to encourage shallow drainage of cold air (and damming of cold air in certain conditions) but doesn't really modify our coldest airmasses. Pretty much any trajectory you can model involves a parcel of air sinking and rising and sinking 1500 feet between the source region and the coast. (6) snowcover also prevents modification of airmasses from the reradiation of heat energy absorbed from insolation (7) A NNW-NNE trajectory minimizes time over bare ground, mostly, and avoids the lakes. That's why it delivers the best cold. That would be true even if the mountains weren't there. It's not that complicated. Lakes not the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's not that complicated. Lakes not the issue. OK. FWIW, this was my final project in one of my atmospheric science classes back in grad school. It's the lakes more than anything else, which is apparent if you spend more than a few second modeling parcel trajectories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 End of EC, from 10th on has a great look. Interior storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 OK. FWIW, this was my final project in one of my atmospheric science classes back in grad school. It's the lakes more than anything else, which is apparent if you spend more than a few second modeling parcel trajectories.So what happens when they are frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 OK. FWIW, this was my final project in one of my atmospheric science classes back in grad school. It's the lakes more than anything else, which is apparent if you spend more than a few second modeling parcel trajectories. The lakes are not the biggest reason for modification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's not that complicated. Lakes not the issue. But moving over the lakes and modifying makes sense from a thermodynamics standpoint. He seems very knowledgable on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 So what happens when they are frozen? Less modification of air masses? Isn't it the same with on-shore flow from the Atlantic? It modifies the air more early in the season and then when the water cools or even freezes in the bay's like last year, there's very little to no modification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 End of EC, from 10th on has a great look. A good deal of blocking. STJ looks to get cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 But moving over the lakes and modifying makes sense from a thermodynamics standpoint. He seems very knowledgable on the subject. It effects it to a point, but it's not the main reason for a deep layer airmass to modify in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 OK. FWIW, this was my final project in one of my atmospheric science classes back in grad school. It's the lakes more than anything else, which is apparent if you spend more than a few second modeling parcel trajectories.This isn't true.Look at the source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 It effects it to a point, but it's not the main reason for a deep layer airmass to modify in SNE. Yeah I don't see how you could say which is the main reason with out significant studying of it. The last thing to modify an airmass would certainly be the terrain, but who knows how much it already modified upstream over the lakes. That still might have modified it quite a bit and then the terrain is the final variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 This isn't true.Look at the sourcelol wut? This whole discussion is about source regions and what modifies the air moving out of those areas into our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah I don't see how you could say which is the main reason with out significant studying of it. The last thing to modify an airmass would certainly be the terrain, but who knows how much it already modified upstream over the lakes. That still might have modified it quite a bit and then the terrain is the final variable. The Great Lakes are not a huge area filled with water. Maybe if you had a small pocket of cold right over the lakes, but air masses are large and would only get an influence from more westerly flow. When you look at the air masses that modify on west flow, it's usually from downsloping as the greatest influence. 850 temps won't modify much and you can actually lose the lake modifying influence as you move east, just like you would with a chinook wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 DRZ, I'd be interested to see your work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah I don't see how you could say which is the main reason with out significant studying of it. The last thing to modify an airmass would certainly be the terrain, but who knows how much it already modified upstream over the lakes. That still might have modified it quite a bit and then the terrain is the final variable. Having gone to school at Cornell in Ithaca, NY, we looked at airmasses all the time and how they modified over the lakes. I can tell you that on WNW or W advecting airmasses, the cold in ITH was significantly more impressive than, say, ORH despite ITH still being east of the lakes. The crossing of the Catskills and Berkshires is a significant hindrance to airmasses for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Having gone to school at Cornell in Ithaca, NY, we looked at airmasses all the time and how they modified over the lakes. I can tell you that on WNW or W advecting airmasses, the cold in ITH was significantly more impressive than, say, ORH despite ITH still being east of the lakes. The crossing of the Catskills and Berkshires is a significant hindrance to airmasses for SNE. Yeah. With all due respect to DRZ, I just don't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah I don't see how you could say which is the main reason with out significant studying of it. The last thing to modify an airmass would certainly be the terrain, but who knows how much it already modified upstream over the lakes. That still might have modified it quite a bit and then the terrain is the final variable. Cold air that builds up at, say, 60N and then reaches us after passing over Superior/Huron has traveled over 2,000 miles to get to my region. That same airmass coming S or SSE from Quebec may travel less than half as far. Less time at lower latitudes might be the biggest factor, at least to this amateur. In any case, the cold is good, especially after the past few weeks, and if the cold becomes dominant, storms should follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah. With all due respect to DRZ, I just don't agree. There's a compressional heating element you have to add in addition to just losing altitude...the parcel loses 2000 feet, but if you are compressing that loss into a smaller zone, then you dry out and heat the air at a greater rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Cold air that builds up at, say, 60N and then reaches us after passing over Superior/Huron has traveled over 2,000 miles to get to my region. That same airmass coming S or SSE from Quebec may travel less than half as far. Less time at lower latitudes might be the biggest factor, at least to this amateur. In any case, the cold is good, especially after the past few weeks, and if the cold becomes dominant, storms should follow. The distance is definitely a huge factor. The Great Lakes though only modify it so much...as I noticed when I was out in western NY how Ithaca would frequently get the better of an eastward advecting cold airmass...even if there was full snow cover between there and ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 There's a compressional heating element you have to add in addition to just losing altitude...the parcel loses 2000 feet, but if you are compressing that loss into a smaller zone, then you dry out and heat the air at a greater rate. Hence why westerly flow over the Berks is terrible. You can't just modify a deep layer cold airmass from conduction of heat over a small area of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Mid Jan.78 coming up now for a couple of days on the GFS analogs for days 11-15, yumI kept thinking about that the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I kept thinking about that the other dayRidge Bridge , Euro Ens 11-15 are straight out of Feb 15 ,holy crap man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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