40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Snow is like a hot girl , don't ask questions. Just appreciate. Yes, but this snow is the fat friend of what is to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Was hoping Ginx's ULL snows would start showing up by now for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Was hoping Ginx's ULL snows would start showing up by now for next week Its a lot of nothing...no offense to him, its weather, so every right to track it....but its of very little consequence for the vast majority of posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 So at this point going forward where do we stand? Im guessing alot better then we have been. Not really seeing much precip predicted on the 12z gfs in the LR but at least we have some cold air to play with right?Also I think i have heard a few people mention that this upcoming pattern could produce quite a few storms whether they be cold or warm. Can someone confirm this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 So at this point going forward where do we stand? Im guessing alot better then we have been. Not really seeing much precip predicted on the 12z gfs in the LR but at least we have some cold air to play with right? Also I think i have heard a few people mention that this upcoming pattern could produce quite a few storms whether they be cold or warm. Can someone confirm this? You will have plenty of work in a few weeks.....I don't see much in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 My largest worry is actually suppression in the long term because everything looks so favorable; however I can't recall dealing with suppression in a strong el nino....that roided out STJ will be tough to deny. Going to be some insane isentropic lift with some of those systems. This will be an unprecedented regime in a strong el nino, granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ray, the El Nino will include a -NAO and +PNA coincident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ray, the El Nino will include a -NAO and +PNA coincident. Complete and utter confluence of teleconnections in a few weeks.....+PDO/PNA, -EPO/AO/NAO....that is a recipe for a mid Atlantic thrashing. I would not be surprised at all to see a repeat of Feb 2010, though would never predict it at this lead. This has the potential to be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Complete and utter confluence of teleconnections in a few weeks.....+PDO/PNA, -EPO/AO/NAO....that is a recipe for a mid Atlantic thrashing. Yes sir, Mid Atlantic will get a thrashing, which is why I must see this LES event, I have a feeling it will exceed forecast expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I am looking at January 6-7 for a significant storm as a southern streamer comes into socal in the 4th. I remember the old rule that a storm into socal leads to an east coast storm 3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Anyway, what's the ec ens look like in the LR? Still have the "trifecta"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Still a warm solution for the 31st system, then the next storm is on 3-4th of January, which appears to be either too weak to produce, or out to sea and even the norlun trough is weakly modeled. Then the pattern warms up after the 6th as temporary relaxation of the +PNA happens from the 6th through 8th until the -AO reloads a pV into Hudson Bay, then another stormy period looks to unfold with an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pattern meh until mid month maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pattern meh until mid month maybe. Yea, few week. Transitional period has always been the first two weeks of January, going back to last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Grasping at straws for at least the first 10 days it seems, Norlun's and Lake effect spillover/ OES reaching out to entice the inner weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 06z GFS December 28th 2015 H5 chart 90 hours You can see the shortwave energy is strung outwards throughout the trough which stretches from the Northeast towards the southwest. This is very disorganized energy and you can see how no storm forms from this mess. 12z NAM at hour 84 December 28th 2015 run H5 chart, This chart shows how strong the NAM keeps the disturbance at H5 in tact, gathers GOM moisture and comes towards the Mid Atlantic states and New England with snowfall as it arrives during the coldest time of the week, very interesting set of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pattern meh until mid month maybe. Yep transition period until the real fun starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think the GFS comes towards the NAM's solution of keeping the energy together rather than break apart. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well if it's mid month then that's getting awfully close to latest inch ever which is Jan 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well if it's mid month then that's getting awfully close to latest inch ever which is Jan 26th I waited until late January for my first snowfall last winter. Finished with over 50 inches last winter. It's never late for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GFS is being too progressive 90 hours out with arctic jet energy and STJ energy, I think there is a semi phase that occurs that ends up bringing that low up further north for January 2nd and 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 January 26th 2015 was my first snow last winter and we ended up with 70" here in Harwich, MA while the Upper Cape saw over 80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 I waited until late January for my first snowfall last winter. Finished with over 50 inches last winter. It's never late for snow.We don't live in NYC. It's extremely late for snow here. Almost unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We don't live in NYC. It's extremely late for snow here. Almost unprecedentedHere as well. We normally see our first inch of snow in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Too many banter posts. Lets keep this on track. It's not the preseason anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Here as well. We normally see our first inch of snow in December Our normal snowfall for December is 5 inches. Things can turnaround just like last year and there are signs that a change is near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Too many banter posts. Lets keep this on track. It's not the preseason anymore. I just cleaned house. I moved all the OES posts over and deleted a few others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Very boring period is in store until the mid month period where after the pattern relaxes it reloads and the PV repositions towards Hudson Bay favoring a coastal storm track up the Eastern Seaboard, more favorable for coastal nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Pattern meh until mid month maybe. What happens to that storm that comes into cali on the 4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GFS has had a northern stream disturbance that has been showing up for several runs now around 1/3, Could be a clipper re developer for SNE/CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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