Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm not sold on a -AO. Maybe fleeting moments but the ensembles are still not gung ho on the idea. The +PNA pattern is pretty solid. But I'd still throw caution flags on the AO as NAO.12 Z EPS was pretty negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 A brush of R- on GFS.its actually snow in your hood but not NYD but the 2nd. Thats a very interesting period on the Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12 Z EPS was pretty negative.18zGEFs lock step with EPS negative AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Fine, I don't know if a nor'easter will present itself during this period, but I put odds at better than 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm surprised there is still any doubt TBH....the persistence train is off the tracks. Some of these long term charts look like Feb 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Fine, I don't know if a nor'easter will present itself during this period, but I put odds at better than 50/50.Its using words like "monster" and "sub 960mb"...that's the issue. It takes alot to get such a system but you make it seem like it's no problem, as if it's just a matter of throwing crap on the wall and making something stick and it turning into a 30" snowstorm. I see stuff on the guidance too that has potential for a coastal, after the new year, but chances are it's not a paralyzing catosphoric snowstorm that threatens mankind with hurricane force winds and 50" snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Crap...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I see your point, but I also see energy coming out of the arctic jet and circle, one of these shortwaves is bound to light it up over the Western Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I see your point, but I also see energy coming out of the arctic jet and circle, one of these shortwaves is bound to light it up over the Western Atlantic Ocean. I hope you're right...I'd be the first one to come celebrate a touchdown dance with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm surprised there is still any doubt TBH....the persistence train is off the tracks. Some of these long term charts look like Feb 2015. I think there is a sector of people who think it may just pull a January 97 or 99 and just flip right back to crap again mid or late January. I know that some of the GFS runs and the ensembles have been continually trying after 300 hours to break down the pattern and go zonal but as soon as that same period comes inside 250 hours a day or two later that strong +PNA is back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I love the pattern that we are heading towards, with such an amplified PNA ridge upstream, downstream the trough should become just as amplified. Question is how do the separate shortwaves arrange themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The PNA was modeled a few weeks ago by VP anomalies. I know we mentioned it, but obviously we were waiting to see how it evolved. So far it seems to be more Nino like as we shut down the IO. I guess the question now is, do we shove that PNA ridge east and warm the U.S. Again? It's possible maybe near mid Jan, but it's really too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think there is a sector of people who think it may just pull a January 97 or 99 and just flip right back to crap again mid or late January. I know that some of the GFS runs and the ensembles have been continually trying after 300 hours to break down the pattern and go zonal but as soon as that same period comes inside 250 hours a day or two later that strong +PNA is back again. If the long range Euro verifies, that is NOT transient. That is a Cahair ridge with cross polar flow. The pattern could relax again mid month, but once old man winter pops that nasty zit atop the north pole, we are going to lock in faster than Garth's eyes on a busty college freshman. We wait. We verify. We shovel. Pop the zit, ooze that arctic puss southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Ray, Scott, that +PNA pulls one through for us on the 00z GFS, hour 228, monster shortwave moving through western NY, diving to a position south of the PA/NY border with a coastal developing, signs of a norlun trough setup and with the 850mb level as cold as the GFS has it, OES and high instability snows at least, with maybe a major coastal nor'easter in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 00z shows that we just miss out on a possible nor'easter, it trended better with the shortwaves though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think the 00z GFS will trend towards a storm in the 240 hour time frame, with various shortwaves moving through the upper level flow. Right now it shows an intense norlun trough just ne of Provincetown and Boston, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 00z GFS reloads into a +PNA/-AO/+NAO pattern towards January 8-10th with another nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 00z GFS reloads into a +PNA/-AO/+NAO pattern towards January 8-10th with another nor'easter. Pattern finally changes to a favorable one right near New Years with a possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yes definitely, but it looks to be rain on NYD, while afterwards the cold air comes in. CMC doesn't agree with the norlun trough idea the 00z GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 the 00z CMC is likely an all out East Coast snowstorm for hour 240+, GFS is a norlun trough instead, let's see if the EURO has a storm then too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The norlun crap is the model trying to figure out how to fish it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Ray, I believe you are right, the model is trying to find the storm potential with such an intense norlun trough, in some setups it is harder for the models to see a potential storm, especially with so many arctic shortwaves in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Regardless of next week, it does seem more active for the east coast as we start January. Pretty strong +PNA ridging in western areas, especially NW Canada. Just have to make sure the corresponding downstream trough is not too far east for cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 When is next chance of any type of snow or wintry precip after Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I would say a few days later, maybe the 2nd and then the 4th and 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Going the wrong way again? Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 10m 10 minutes ago Just like the analogs said, including the hated Jan MJO ph8, warm anomalies stick over NE US in Jan on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Going the wrong way again? Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 10m 10 minutes ago Just like the analogs said, including the hated Jan MJO ph8, warm anomalies stick over NE US in Jan on ensembles. I don't get that tweet. Seems odd given the Ens.look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 I don't get that tweet. Seems odd given the Ens.lookSince all the talk has been ridge bridges and cold taking over..-AO .. I was surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Since all the talk has been ridge bridges and cold taking over..-AO .. I was surprisedtime will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Going the wrong way again? Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 10m 10 minutes ago Just like the analogs said, including the hated Jan MJO ph8, warm anomalies stick over NE US in Jan on ensembles. He was referring to what I mentioned yesterday and today. I just said have to make sure ridge isn't too far east. I didn't see anything to torchy though. Just typical oscillations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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