CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Completely tossing it is silly. It was useful in determining track and evolution.....anyone who has a clue did not buy its thermals. I used the GFS, and my forecast came out fine. GFS was too cold and too wet. There were plenty of other models that handled the features better inside 36 hrs. It had to be tossed, and I'm one of the first who come in and defend not tossing models. It was clearly the outlier and jumpy which is a big red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Feb blew, too....that one was odd.Figure out why as you soak in moms tub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Precisely why expecting a great snowy mid and late Jan is iffy at best But you can't always judge snow when many mesoscale features and intangibles govern how much snow you'll get. I always stress that we can only judge a pattern by how it looks. The details fall into place after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 If you increase the sample size and include the low end strong and moderate Ninos then you get a composite warm December and cold February. They are pretty strong composites too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Precisely why expecting a great snowy mid and late Jan is iffy at best Precisely why expect,ing a great snowy mid and late Jan is iffy at best I'm sure you'll be the first to tell us, once the possibility of this happening increases to say 10%. Truthfully its a win win for you. If you find the nut then you can claim to be a seer and guru. If you don't, then you're just a happy weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Figure out why as you soak in moms tub If I wanted to, I'd own it. Sorry I feel it prudent to help my elderly mother while going to school full time, working two jobs, and show you how long range forecasting is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 If you increase the sample size and include the low end strong and moderate Ninos then you get a composite warm December and cold February. They are pretty strong composites too. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I actually liked the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 If I wanted to, I'd own it. Sorry I feel it prudent to help my elderly mother while going to school full time, working two jobs, and show you how long range forecasting is done. 2 big snaps up in a circle - you go! Kevin that was over the line and unnecesary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'm sure you'll be the first to tell us, once the possibility of this happening increases to say 10%. Truthfully its a win win for you. If you find the nut then you can claim to be a seer and guru. If you don't, then you're just a happy weenie.All I'm saying is there seems to be an uber amount of confidence on a great second half. That very well may happen. Hopefully it does. I just think the reasons discussed are enough to not feel overly confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 2 big snaps up in a circle - you go! Kevin that was over the line and unnecesary. What are you talking about?We were both joking around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 We'll see what happens. Looks good, but we could always get 2010edTM....who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I actually liked the GEFS. I liked cmc ensembles better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I liked cmc ensembles better. It's like the model is run by weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 What are you talking about?We were both joking around If so, my bad. But I stand by the 2 snaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I actually liked the GEFS. Showing a lot more Atlantic blocking recently in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Regime change. Early December. Vs now. Note how the Indian ocean is void of anomalous convection as noted in blue. Right now your "blues" are at the dateline. It's a completely different regime change. Your Kara Sea ridge is being built by a massive Icelandic low. This gets cut off and helps the AO go negative. This indeed is at least temporary, but IMHO..I am not sold on this flipping the AO for good...nor am I sold on the Pacific maintaining itself. The 50mb and 10mb looks continue a big Pacific warming, but not SSW yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The worry in the NYC or MA threads (not sure which ones) seems to be about SE ridging. Personally I like SE Ridging to some extent, especially in the middle of winter...storm can turn the corner and come up, instead of doing that VA Capes slide out thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's like the model is run by weenies. https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/682249774700097536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Are you Jewish too? Always enjoy your posts, and your threads. I like your writing even if I can't always understand the technical part. It is cool when you start sniffing out possible scenarios - always big picture and with caveats, and I like that. Do you share Scott's concerns that the PNA ridge is getting a bit muted on some runs? Yeeeah, it's not ideal - no. But, the weight of the GEFs in total and the resounding signal from that, "intuitively" that probability should favor us. It seems what is going on is that we have a lot of wave-interference (negative), with the models assessing a lot of smaller-scaled S/Ws that contend and cancel/damp each-other out (pretty much the definition of negative interference). What's interesting about that is that it erodes the possibility at larger scale when all these little critters are vying for proxy. The ridge in the west is riddled with holes and is struggling to find a integrity in the N-S axis (probably what Scott's noting and I've seen it all too). I don't think it has to last that way, as well ... we can still pop events despite that. One thing to circle back ... if the WPO gets more involved --> AA NP that would help. We'd really see a -EPO and pulsing +PNA help stuff holes in that and we'd get more conservation for bigger systems. So in all, it's uneasy a little, but there's more room for some optimism (if you want storms and cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The worry in the NYC or MA threads (not sure which ones) seems to be about SE ridging. Personally I like SE Ridging to some extent, especially in the middle of winter...storm can turn the corner and come up, instead of doing that VA Capes slide out thing. the MA thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS was too cold and too wet. There were plenty of other models that handled the features better inside 36 hrs. It had to be tossed, and I'm one of the first who come in and defend not tossing models. It was clearly the outlier and jumpy which is a big red flag. Depending on one's location. It was pretty much dead on for qpf and temp up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeeeah, it's not ideal - no. But, the weight of the GEFs in total and the resounding signal from that, "intuitively" that probability should favor us. It seems what is going on is that we have a lot of wave-interference (negative), with the models assessing a lot of smaller-scaled S/Ws that contend and cancel/damp each-other out (pretty much the definition of negative interference). What's interesting about that is that it erodes the possibility at larger scale when all these little critters are vying for proxy. The ridge in the west is riddled with holes and is struggling to find a integrity in the N-S axis (probably what Scott's noting and I've seen it all too). I don't think it has to last that way, as well ... we can still pop events despite that. One thing to circle back ... if the WPO gets more involved --> AA NP that would help. We'd really see a -EPO and pulsing +PNA help stuff holes in that and we'd get more conservation for bigger systems. So in all, it's uneasy a little, but there's more room for some optimism (if you want storms and cold). I would agree as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Depending on one's location. It was pretty much dead on for qpf and temp up here. You guys were deep into the cold air, but from PWM-LCI and points south, it did not do well with the thermal profiles at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You guys were deep into the cold air, but from PWM-LCI and points south, it did not do well with the thermal profiles at all. Pretty sure he said he averaged a 6.6:1 ratio, all snow, after the first 1.5" too. So the warm tongue got up there too although it was still cold enough for all snow. I haven't compared GFS forecast soundings with reality up there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah that makes a lot of sense Tip. When you have an El Nino and a potentially active period of time there is going to be differences in the timing and amplitude of different SW energy which can effect whether a teleconnections like the PNA is a strong positive or more muted but seeing such a change in the mass state of the Teleconnections as a whole, the combination of the WPO, EPO,PNA, NAO,AO, and the MJO heading towards phases 8 and 1 which is a colder signal across the eastern US should be enough to get us interested if not downright excited given the abyss that we have been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Somebody wake James up for the euro solution pre dawn to early am Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Somebody wake James up for the euro solution pre dawn to early am Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Windex Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Cmon man...it's a solid wind blown coating in some spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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