CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Thanks for the quick lesson. I'll keep digging. Yeah a very basic lesson..lol. Don't want to confuse you, but those images are ensemble means. Like Oceanst said, there can be a lot of different solutions and the mean is sometimes not the best one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Scott, can you come over to the OES thread for a second and let me know what you think of Sunday night into Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Its gonna snow...its gotta snow....its gonna snow, this I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Thanks for the quick lesson. I'll keep digging. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/Fyi Euro Ens mean on Jan 8th has measurable up here and cold enough. Again watch that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah a very basic lesson..lol. Don't want to confuse you, but those images are ensemble means. Like Oceanst said, there can be a lot of different solutions and the mean is sometimes not the best one. Nah you didnt. I followed. I just need to get away from ens means because THAT confuses me. It doesn't give me an indication of what are the possibilities, instead it's a blended sloution of all of them. I'd rather see all the members and decide for myself what's more probable....even if I end up being wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nah you didnt. I followed. I just need to get away from ens means because THAT confuses me. It doesn't give me an indication of what are the possibilities, instead it's a blended sloution of all of them. I'd rather see all the members and decide for myself what's more probable....even if I end up being wrong lol. Well the mean usually is the "best guess" type deal, but it is also important to see the different solutions. However, with ensembles being so wild after day 10...you may have a seizure looking at all the different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nah you didnt. I followed. I just need to get away from ens means because THAT confuses me. It doesn't give me an indication of what are the possibilities, instead it's a blended sloution of all of them. I'd rather see all the members and decide for myself what's more probable....even if I end up being wrong lol. The problem with ensembles is that people want to use them as deterministic. Which they aren't. Individual shortwaves that lead to the development of low pressure are going to be washed out by the mean because they are smaller scale, poorly modeled features. Ensembles are much better for teasing out above/below normal temps, or a pattern favorable for above/below normal precip. Which drives some people nuts, because they want storm by storm information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nah you didnt. I followed. I just need to get away from ens means because THAT confuses me. It doesn't give me an indication of what are the possibilities, instead it's a blended sloution of all of them. I'd rather see all the members and decide for myself what's more probable....even if I end up being wrong lol.actually at LR the mean is what you should look at, you can also get cluster maps which show a percentage of Ens showing a particular solutionhttp://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=12&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 https://www.meted.ucar.edu/ Fyi Euro Ens mean on Jan 8th has measurable up here and cold enough. Again watch that period Great link. Thx. Hope the signal gets stronger in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I am really confused about this. Nasa scientist's claim El Nino getting stronger in 2016?. http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/4ff286092a5414f97ca794deb0c77e81.htm Then you have the CFS going for well above normal temperatures for January and then apparently the Euro Ensembles saying yesterday no major pattern change now back to major pattern change. 2h2 hours ago Michael Ventrice Retweeted Dan Leonard Uncertainty at an all time high in the medium range. Models flopping more than a fish out of water. Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx Wild run to run changes on the ECMWF EPS: Yesterday it cancelled the pattern change, today it brought it back. 6 retweets7 likes Reply Retweet 6 Like 7 More Michael Ventrice Retweeted Eric Blake @EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago CFS just wants to tease winter #weather lovers- after a cold couple of forecasts, toasty again for January. #climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 question for Kev could you explain IO forcing in detail for me and how it changes hemispheric flow. Also what indicators lead you to believe IO forcing will return. TIA might not have to wait until the 10th, just sayin Perhaps New England can do well a bit earlier with an initial ~January 8th wave, though I think there will still be a decent amount of Pacific air which would certainly hurt the airmass -- especially for NYC and the Mid-Atlantic -- though yeah perhaps New England can get away with it. Unless you're referring to the Arctic front/snow squalls on Monday? As far as the IO forcing, Mike Ventrice tweeted this image out earlier today, showing convection returning to the IO. The CFS (this might be a day old?) also shows the Walker Circulation gradually reversing with more convection in the IO to end the month and start February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The problem with ensembles is that people want to use them as deterministic. Which they aren't. Individual shortwaves that lead to the development of low pressure are going to be washed out by the mean because they are smaller scale, poorly modeled features. Ensembles are much better for teasing out above/below normal temps, or a pattern favorable for above/below normal precip. Which drives some people nuts, because they want storm by storm information. Yeah as useful as ensembles are they can be badly misused. I really like the SREF profiles in BUFKIT because it's a really great way to view uncertainty/clustering of many different variables (e.g. the mid level warm punch with the SWFE). Now... that does assume 90% of the SREF members aren't dropping acid which is a big assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Perhaps New England can do well a bit earlier with an initial ~January 8th wave, though I think there will still be a decent amount of Pacific air which would certainly hurt the airmass -- especially for NYC and the Mid-Atlantic -- though yeah perhaps New England can get away with it. Unless you're referring to the Arctic front/snow squalls on Monday? As far as the IO forcing, Mike Ventrice tweeted this image out earlier today, showing convection returning to the IO. 2.png The CFS (this might be a day old?) also shows the Walker Circulation gradually reversing with more convection in the IO to end the month and start February. 4.jpg thanks Kevin lol, whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 thanks Kevin lol, whoosh Haha sorry! Just wanted to add to the discussion. Though I didn't really get into detail as to what exactly IO forcing is, except for mentioning that the Walker Circulation is getting reversed on the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah as useful as ensembles are they can be badly misused. I really like the SREF profiles in BUFKIT because it's a really great way to view uncertainty/clustering of many different variables (e.g. the mid level warm punch with the SWFE). Now... that does assume 90% of the SREF members aren't dropping acid which is a big assumption.we are talking day 9 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Haha sorry! Just wanted to add to the discussion. Though I didn't really get into detail as to what exactly IO forcing is, except for mentioning that the Walker Circulation is getting reversed on the CFS.jk , CFS flipped if you look 2 days prior. Lots of day to day flipping going on with some people, lol not you but ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 we are talking day 9 though Doesn't really matter. Same principle applies. A mean of any variable can be misleading on an ensemble. Look at Joaquin - the mean track was a hurricane making landfall on Long Island (NHC was basically there to). How did that work out for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Haha sorry! Just wanted to add to the discussion. Though I didn't really get into detail as to what exactly IO forcing is, except for mentioning that the Walker Circulation is getting reversed on the CFS. Ok. I'm assuming the downstream affect of this would be a less favorable pattern with more of a trough signal across the Western Us. Does anyone care to expound upon how this Walker circulation relates to the MJO and IO forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Doesn't really matter. Same principle applies. A mean of any variable can be misleading on an ensemble. Look at Joaquin - the mean track was a hurricane making landfall on Long Island (NHC was basically there to). How did that work out for everyone?how far do srefs on Bufkit go out? If I remember right that mean was 1 run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The problem with ensembles is that people want to use them as deterministic. Which they aren't. Individual shortwaves that lead to the development of low pressure are going to be washed out by the mean because they are smaller scale, poorly modeled features. Ensembles are much better for teasing out above/below normal temps, or a pattern favorable for above/below normal precip. Which drives some people nuts, because they want storm by storm information. I believe this was my problem lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 how far do srefs on Bufkit go out? If I remember right that mean was 1 run? 87 hours. What was only 1 run? I was just saying how beings able to use the clustering of individual members can tell you so much more than just looking at the mean. True in the short range and the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Doesn't really matter. Same principle applies. A mean of any variable can be misleading on an ensemble. Look at Joaquin - the mean track was a hurricane making landfall on Long Island (NHC was basically there to). How did that work out for everyone? GREAT example of the mean being the worst possible solution to follow. That's why looking at clustering is important. dProg/dt can be useful too, to see how runs are changing with time. The stuff they are doing with sensitivity analysis is interesting too, figuring out which feature is affecting the variance most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Doesn't really matter. Same principle applies. A mean of any variable can be misleading on an ensemble. Look at Joaquin - the mean track was a hurricane making landfall on Long Island (NHC was basically there to). How did that work out for everyone? I had to freeze eight loaves of white bread and give eight gallons of milk to the neighborhood cats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yeah no I meant 78 - my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Doesn't really matter. Same principle applies. A mean of any variable can be misleading on an ensemble. Look at Joaquin - the mean track was a hurricane making landfall on Long Island (NHC was basically there to). How did that work out for everyone? So would it have been more feasible to go with the clusters of members then? If I recall correctly most members were ots and a couple skewed the mean to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I had to freeze eight loaves of white bread and give eight gallons of milk to the neighborhood cats. That storm still pisses me off - one of the few storms (Edouard being another) that I have a visceral reaction to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 So would it have been more feasible to go with the clusters of members then? If I recall correctly most members were ots and a couple skewed the mean to LI. For a while we had basically 2 clusters... one OTS and one into SC/NC. Few, if any, members had the storm hitting Long Island. However when you split the difference and take the mean of those 2 clusters you get a track down in the middle. In that case the mean is the least likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 For a while we had basically 2 clusters... one OTS and one into SC/NC. Few, if any, members had the storm hitting Long Island. However when you split the difference and take the mean of those 2 clusters you get a track down in the middle. In that case the mean is the least likely scenario. And basically all of the Euro members were wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 For a while we had basically 2 clusters... one OTS and one into SC/NC. Few, if any, members had the storm hitting Long Island. However when you split the difference and take the mean of those 2 clusters you get a track down in the middle. In that case the mean is the least likely scenario. And people in authority were giving you a hard time for giving an honest scientific argument for the storm going out to sea. It was really disgraceful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 And basically all of the Euro members were wide right. NHC is 0 for 2 with recent NEUS threats. Maybe next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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