NC_hailstorm Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 That's a big storm showing up day 7/8 on the GFS and Euro. Next weekend looks real warm but that storm might get things moving afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 384hr GFS cooks up a Christmas miracle. Enjoy it before 18z rolls around and drops a lump of coal. The euro weekly control had it last Thursday. Let's just keep it at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 To make things more interesting. The GFS for a few runs has been showing a BIG western ridge forming late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 To make things more interesting. The GFS for a few runs has been showing a BIG western ridge forming late month. Let's get the Euro onboard and we'll be in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 That's a big storm showing up day 7/8 on the GFS and Euro. Next weekend looks real warm but that storm might get things moving afterwards. That will be the storm which imo could start the pattern changing. It will take 10-15 days for the pattern to fully change but by early January we should have some nice blocking setting up. Could be a lot of rain with it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 384hr GFS cooks up a Christmas miracle. Enjoy it before 18z rolls around and drops a lump of coal. Euro weeklies showed a storm in the same time range, gives a white Christmas for quite a few on here. Nothing major but a few inches for Christmas would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 The EPS hideous . Continues the same pattern into Christmas week after an brief break late next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 The EPS hideous . Continues the same pattern into Christmas week after an brief break late next weekend It will continue until late December, so everyone, stay away from the cliff! Ever hike the AT? Winter is going to be like a descent from a mountain - some downs with some ups and a switchback or two to get down - but by the time we really start the descent -- hold on .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Well we just burnt week 1. 15 left and as we start week 2 it's about as ugly as it gets. Unless something starts showing up with some consistency for the last week of Dec in the LR I think it's safe to say we can punt December. I Hate strong ninos. This is turning out to be 97 redux which has been my Bigest fear all along. Seeing signs of a whopper Nina for next year. Wining. Good news is 84% of our snow in triad comes JFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Well we just burnt week 1. 15 left and as we start week 2 it's about as ugly as it gets. Unless something starts showing up with some consistency for the last week of Dec in the LR I think it's safe to say we can punt December. I Hate strong ninos. This is turning out to be 97 redux which has been my Bigest fear all along. Seeing signs of a whopper Nina for next year. Wining. Good news is 84% of our snow in triad comes JFM.December was expected to be a no show for most of us with above average temps and a torch to our north in Canada. However models have hinted long range at snow chances around Christmas or a few days before. The euro weeklies indicated this and the 00z GFS hints at it as well, so maybe there is something to it. Pattern change should occur first week of January but everything looks on schedule. Also lots of differences between 97-98 and this year. This year is acting much more like a La Niña with the cold west vs warm east setup, however this should change quickly in January as the PV breaks down and strong blocking establishes. The pattern change will be slow and gradual taking 10-15 days to complete with the start being around December 20th according to long range GFS/euro/CMC blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 El Nino winters generally start warm. I think in the SE it will be bang or bust. Instead of 3 to 4 minor events we will have a shot at a couple monsters. I'm not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 El Nino winters generally start warm. I think in the SE it will be bang or bust. Instead of 3 to 4 minor events we will have a shot at a couple monsters. I'm not worried I totally agree with you guys in the sense that we have known really that December was going to be a non-event for most of us, so it is kind of curious to see all these posts from people lamenting the fact the December is warm. Typically, at least here North of Nashville, our biggest snows are mid-January to mid-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Well we just burnt week 1. 15 left and as we start week 2 it's about as ugly as it gets. Unless something starts showing up with some consistency for the last week of Dec in the LR I think it's safe to say we can punt December. I Hate strong ninos. This is turning out to be 97 redux which has been my Bigest fear all along. Seeing signs of a whopper Nina for next year. Wining. Good news is 84% of our snow in triad comes JFM. What does this phrase even mean? Many people use this analogy of punting a week, month, season, storm, etc., but I just don't understand how it applies. To punt means that you have control of the football, and then you kick it to the other team hoping to pin them deep on their own side of the field because you couldn't get a first down within your previous three downs. With weather, we never control the football (the sensible weather), so how can we punt it? Who is the other team in this analogy? Does it simply mean that you are giving up on the week, month, season, storm etc.? If so, this doesn't really make sense either: In football, you can't change your mind and take the ball back once you have punted. However, assuming a person is a fan of winter weather, even if you "punted" the month, you would gladly accept winter weather if it somehow occurred "against all odds". We can watch all kinds of models and indices for indications of what is likely to happen, and we can make sensible predictions based off experience and knowledge of the past, but we can't "punt". We don't control the football. We're just fans in the stands. We're not the coaches or the players. There are clearly no signs of any likely wintry weather event anytime soon, but all we can do is continue to watch the models and the changing atmospheric conditions, report what we see, and infer what is likely to happen based off the material that is available to us. And, we can hope. Just as we did as little kids before we had any knowledge of the GFS, the ECMWF, SSTs, NAOs, and PNAs. Even with all that knowledge today, we (nor anybody else) have any ability to control what is going to happen. Enjoying weather is the ultimate spectator sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 What does this phrase even mean? Many people use this analogy of punting a week, month, season, storm, etc., but I just don't understand how it applies. To punt means that you have control of the football, and then you kick it to the other team hoping to pin them deep on their own side of the field because you couldn't get a first down within your previous three downs. With weather, we never control the football (the sensible weather), so how can we punt it? Who is the other team in this analogy? Does it simply mean that you are giving up on the week, month, season, storm etc.? If so, this doesn't really make sense either: In football, you can't change your mind and take the ball back once you have punted. However, assuming a person is a fan of winter weather, even if you "punted" the month, you would gladly accept winter weather if it somehow occurred "against all odds". We can watch all kinds of models and indices for indications of what is likely to happen, and we can make sensible predictions based off experience and knowledge of the past, but we can't "punt". We don't control the football. We're just fans in the stands. We're not the coaches or the players. There are clearly no signs of any likely wintry weather event anytime soon, but all we can do is continue to watch the models and the changing atmospheric conditions, report what we see, and infer what is likely to happen based off the material that is available to us. And, we can hope. Just as we did as little kids before we had any knowledge of the GFS, the ECMWF, SSTs, NAOs, and PNAs. Even with all that knowledge today, we (nor anybody else) has any ability to control what is going to happen. Enjoying weather is the ultimate spectator sport. Lol great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I'm punting Dec, like I was a Clemson punter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 What does this phrase even mean? Many people use this analogy of punting a week, month, season, storm, etc., but I just don't understand how it applies. To punt means that you have control of the football, and then you kick it to the other team hoping to pin them deep on their own side of the field because you couldn't get a first down within your previous three downs. With weather, we never control the football (the sensible weather), so how can we punt it? Who is the other team in this analogy? Does it simply mean that you are giving up on the week, month, season, storm etc.? If so, this doesn't really make sense either: In football, you can't change your mind and take the ball back once you have punted. However, assuming a person is a fan of winter weather, even if you "punted" the month, you would gladly accept winter weather if it somehow occurred "against all odds". We can watch all kinds of models and indices for indications of what is likely to happen, and we can make sensible predictions based off experience and knowledge of the past, but we can't "punt". We don't control the football. We're just fans in the stands. We're not the coaches or the players. There are clearly no signs of any likely wintry weather event anytime soon, but all we can do is continue to watch the models and the changing atmospheric conditions, report what we see, and infer what is likely to happen based off the material that is available to us. And, we can hope. Just as we did as little kids before we had any knowledge of the GFS, the ECMWF, SSTs, NAOs, and PNAs. Even with all that knowledge today, we (nor anybody else) has any ability to control what is going to happen. Enjoying weather is the ultimate spectator sport. I know I had much better luck when I did it this way. It was the 70's and 80's though. Maybe that was it. hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I'm punting Dec, like I was a Clemson punter! Hopefully we can block it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Kicking the can would be a better term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 What does this phrase even mean? Many people use this analogy of punting a week, month, season, storm, etc., but I just don't understand how it applies. To punt means that you have control of the football, and then you kick it to the other team hoping to pin them deep on their own side of the field because you couldn't get a first down within your previous three downs. With weather, we never control the football (the sensible weather), so how can we punt it? Who is the other team in this analogy? Does it simply mean that you are giving up on the week, month, season, storm etc.? If so, this doesn't really make sense either: In football, you can't change your mind and take the ball back once you have punted. However, assuming a person is a fan of winter weather, even if you "punted" the month, you would gladly accept winter weather if it somehow occurred "against all odds". We can watch all kinds of models and indices for indications of what is likely to happen, and we can make sensible predictions based off experience and knowledge of the past, but we can't "punt". We don't control the football. We're just fans in the stands. We're not the coaches or the players. There are clearly no signs of any likely wintry weather event anytime soon, but all we can do is continue to watch the models and the changing atmospheric conditions, report what we see, and infer what is likely to happen based off the material that is available to us. And, we can hope. Just as we did as little kids before we had any knowledge of the GFS, the ECMWF, SSTs, NAOs, and PNAs. Even with all that knowledge today, we (nor anybody else) has any ability to control what is going to happen. Enjoying weather is the ultimate spectator sport. Good post. For us old vets punting kind of means this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 What does this phrase even mean? Many people use this analogy of punting a week, month, season, storm, etc., but I just don't understand how it applies. To punt means that you have control of the football, and then you kick it to the other team hoping to pin them deep on their own side of the field because you couldn't get a first down within your previous three downs. With weather, we never control the football (the sensible weather), so how can we punt it? Who is the other team in this analogy? Does it simply mean that you are giving up on the week, month, season, storm etc.? If so, this doesn't really make sense either: In football, you can't change your mind and take the ball back once you have punted. However, assuming a person is a fan of winter weather, even if you "punted" the month, you would gladly accept winter weather if it somehow occurred "against all odds". We can watch all kinds of models and indices for indications of what is likely to happen, and we can make sensible predictions based off experience and knowledge of the past, but we can't "punt". We don't control the football. We're just fans in the stands. We're not the coaches or the players. There are clearly no signs of any likely wintry weather event anytime soon, but all we can do is continue to watch the models and the changing atmospheric conditions, report what we see, and infer what is likely to happen based off the material that is available to us. And, we can hope. Just as we did as little kids before we had any knowledge of the GFS, the ECMWF, SSTs, NAOs, and PNAs. Even with all that knowledge today, we (nor anybody else) have any ability to control what is going to happen. Enjoying weather is the ultimate spectator sport. To punt means you've giving up. You have one more down to try and get a first down or score, but you deem the odds to great so you punt the ball and hope your defense can get a stop and get the ball back with a new set of downs and decent field position to try again at scoring putting points on the board. So for me to punt December means it's 4th and long and the odds of scoring getting a first down , ie weather pattern conducive to receiving any winter weather isnt possible by Dec 31st. My post above means this week is 3rd and long from my viewpoint. Well see if we can get any teleconnections to show hope of a pattern change by Weeks end. If not I'm punting December that simple. Right now you have a polar vortex on roids and no real sign of the pna flipping. Big zonal flow that's locked in flooding conus with pac origin air and no signs that I can see of it breaking down (haven't checked models today). Seen this dog and pony show before. If you feel there's still hope December can be salvaged that's great and hopefully your right and I'm wrong. And the other team is above avg temps, no wintry precip? I'll try again in January, February. Punting a month away isnt the same as punting December away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 To punt or not to punt.... Good posts by both Calc and NCSNOW. It's ok to give up on December. But there's something compelling about still holding out hope, like we did in the pre-model era. The weather is a fascinating, yet often confounding thing. Writing off a whole month seems illogical. At face value, the weather changes. Clouds roll in and they roll out. The rain comes down and the sun comes out. Weather can change quickly, and so can patterns. But not always. Certain background states lend themselves to more rapid and efficient changes than others. I would suggest the current state of the atmosphere is not one of those. A mighty El Nino, an almost record strong PV, historical evidence that puts climo against us right now, and low December snowfall in general all add up to cast a shadow on winter setting in before the month is out. We have what, 3 weeks left? Usually, once the models start sniffing a change, it's 1-2 weeks before the start of it. Outside of a few long range transient cold shots, I haven't seen that the models are locking in on a change to a much better pattern. And it's going to take a much better pattern to get and stay cold, if that's what one is looking for -- not just tinkering at the margins. If we don't see signs of a change locked in by the models in the next 7 days, the odds of turning spring into winter before January arrives will be extremely low, IMO. None of this, however, means we can't get a shot of cold and moisture to align perfectly, as even in a good pattern, we still need that. So as we quickly work into the second half of the month, we will wait with wonder to see what the long range data reveals to us, as the inescapable question, which now is but a whisper, grows louder in our minds -- To punt, or not to punt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I for one am looking forward to the upcoming pleasant weather, assuming we don't get rained on every other day. Enjoy it while you can as it will turn colder once into January and then we are going praying for mercy hoping for spring to come. #JammingJan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I would expect the mountains to start seeing some action by end of Dec...GEFS thinks so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 To punt means you've giving up. You have one more down to try and get a first down or score, but you deem the odds to great so you punt the ball and hope your defense can get a stop and get the ball back with a new set of downs and decent field position to try again at scoring putting points on the board. So for me to punt December means it's 4th and long and the odds of scoring getting a first down , ie weather pattern conducive to receiving any winter weather isnt possible by Dec 31st. My post above means this week is 3rd and long from my viewpoint. Well see if we can get any teleconnections to show hope of a pattern change by Weeks end. If not I'm punting December that simple. Right now you have a polar vortex on roids and no real sign of the pna flipping. Big zonal flow that's locked in flooding conus with pac origin air and no signs that I can see of it breaking down (haven't checked models today). Seen this dog and pony show before. If you feel there's still hope December can be salvaged that's great and hopefully your right and I'm wrong. And the other team is above avg temps, no wintry precip? I'll try again in January, February. Punting a month away isnt the same as punting December away I think you misunderstand my post, NCSNOW. My post has nothing to do with being either optimistic or pessimistic about seeing snow this week, this month, this season, etc. It centers around the fact that in order to be able to punt, you must control the football. Since nobody controls the football or can even call the plays, all we can do is observe what happens. We're spectators; thus, we cannot punt. My argument is that punting is simply a bad analogy for losing hope in seeing winter weather in whatever time frame is of interest. Personally, I try not to look too far out in the future and predict what's going to happen, partly because I'm no good at it and partly because I don't want to invest that much time in it. Thus, I tend to take it one week at a time and see what happens to come my way over that time frame. So, I'm with you in not seeing any chances for wintry weather on my horizon. Others like to take the long approach and use valid reasoning for why winter weather is likely (or not likely) to occur. That appears to be what you're doing at this time. That's great too. I'm not attempting to denigrate the science and skill that goes into that approach. Nor am I trying to silence it, if it's not favorable to the cold and snowy outlook that so many of us want. You're not the only one using this analogy, NCSNOW, you just happened to be the most recent to use it, and I finally attempted to address it and give my perspective. And, that's all it is, my perspective on the use of word pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 I for one am looking forward to the upcoming pleasant weather, assuming we don't get rained on every other day. Enjoy it while you can as it will turn colder once into January and then we are going praying for mercy hoping for spring to come. #JammingJan Rain ? What's that ? It's been dry as a bone in Atlanta for weeks. So much for El Nino bringing a lot of rain. We might have a record dry December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Rain ? What's that ? It's been dry as a bone in Atlanta for weeks. So much for El Nino bringing a lot of rain. We might have a record dry December. We are basically in a la nina-like pattern during one of the strongest el nino's in recorded history. Go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 We are basically in a la nina-like pattern during one of the strongest el nino's in recorded history. Go figure! This was one of the wettest, if not the wettest, falls on record IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 December was expected to be a no show for most of us with above average temps and a torch to our north in Canada. However models have hinted long range at snow chances around Christmas or a few days before. The euro weeklies indicated this and the 00z GFS hints at it as well, so maybe there is something to it. Pattern change should occur first week of January but everything looks on schedule. Also lots of differences between 97-98 and this year. This year is acting much more like a La Niña with the cold west vs warm east setup, however this should change quickly in January as the PV breaks down and strong blocking establishes. The pattern change will be slow and gradual taking 10-15 days to complete with the start being around December 20th according to long range GFS/euro/CMC blend. Congrats to the middle of the country with the possibility of some snow toward Christmas. There's differences when comparing this year to ANY year. As for the Nina reference.....no....just no....this is a Nino. Period. It's acting like the STRONGEST BASIN WIDE Nino that it is. Pacific air blows warm and when it's as strong as this one is, it will do what it wants and keep all of the cold air bottled way up north. I'm punting Dec, like I was a Clemson punter! We are basically in a la nina-like pattern during one of the strongest el nino's in recorded history. Go figure! Where are you guys getting this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Rain ? What's that ? It's been dry as a bone in Atlanta for weeks. So much for El Nino bringing a lot of rain. We might have a record dry December. Looks wet to me...doesn't mean we won't go through some stretches where we are dry but we will be wet the next couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 New AO summary out from Judah Cohen (AER) here: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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