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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

Snowless in Carrollton

By Snowless in Carrollton,
in Southeastern States

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

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Posted

Looks wet to me...doesn't mean we won't go through some stretches where we are dry but we will be wet the next couple of months.

b39861bf42e8c86d64fd2ddaed2dcae4.jpg

A 3 week stretch is a pretty long stretch, especially in an El Nino winter. That map doesn't show an excessive amount of rainfall in a large part of the southeast. Carolinas and NE GA looks wet, other than that the rest of the southeast doesn't look excessively wet since October.

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

Sounds like he's saying the 2nd half of winter could be cold or could be warm!?!?

Very deep Mr. Cohen! Way to stand your ground !

Eurasia snowcover failboat, part duh!

 

I get the feeling that he's really just making it up as he goes along.

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NCummingWx93

NCummingWx93

Posted
Posted

This was one of the wettest, if not the wettest, falls on record IMBY.

Same for mine. I'm referring to the current pattern that has been going on recently, for the past 2-3 weeks or so. Very reminiscent of something other than a strong el nino pattern. At least this pattern is giving our areas to dry out tho for what hopefully will be a wet/snowy winter.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

New AO summary out from Judah Cohen (AER) here: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

"We continue to anticipate that the polar vortex will be sufficiently perturbed/weakened to allow colder weather to spread over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes starting in January.   However, If the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month or so to weaken the polar vortex, then the winter AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents for the remainder of the winter.  This is especially true across North America where an El Niño driven southern Jet Stream will flood North America with mild Pacific air."

 

What is the point of his research and index again?  That's pretty hilarious.  Each week it seems he backpedals more and more. 

 

December is torch city, we'll see where January is come the holidays.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

"We continue to anticipate that the polar vortex will be sufficiently perturbed/weakened to allow colder weather to spread over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes starting in January. However, If the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month or so to weaken the polar vortex, then the winter AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents for the remainder of the winter. This is especially true across North America where an El Niño driven southern Jet Stream will flood North America with mild Pacific air."

What is the point of his research and index again? That's pretty hilarious. Each week it seems he backpedals more and more.

December is torch city, we'll see where January is come the holidays.

Any jabroni can hindcast. That the heck good is a new forecast tool if it only predicts the past?

It's essentially this:

Hey everybody, a high SAI leads to a high probablity of a -AO except when it doesn't. And I really can't tell you when it will or won't. But we'll know in March. Good luck!

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Any jabroni can hindcast. That the heck good is a new forecast tool if it only predicts the past?

It's essentially this:

Hey everybody, a high SAI leads to a high probablity of a -AO except when it doesn't. And I really can't tell you when it will or won't. But we'll know in March. Good luck!

Sounds like a snowstorm2011 forecast for Carrollton ! :)
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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

I think you misunderstand my post, NCSNOW. My post has nothing to do with being either optimistic or pessimistic about seeing snow this week, this month, this season, etc. It centers around the fact that in order to be able to punt, you must control the football. Since nobody controls the football or can even call the plays, all we can do is observe what happens. We're spectators; thus, we cannot punt. My argument is that punting is simply a bad analogy for losing hope in seeing winter weather in whatever time frame is of interest.

Personally, I try not to look too far out in the future and predict what's going to happen, partly because I'm no good at it and partly because I don't want to invest that much time in it. Thus, I tend to take it one week at a time and see what happens to come my way over that time frame. So, I'm with you in not seeing any chances for wintry weather on my horizon.

Others like to take the long approach and use valid reasoning for why winter weather is likely (or not likely) to occur. That appears to be what you're doing at this time. That's great too. I'm not attempting to denigrate the science and skill that goes into that approach. Nor am I trying to silence it, if it's not favorable to the cold and snowy outlook that so many of us want.

You're not the only one using this analogy, NCSNOW, you just happened to be the most recent to use it, and I finally attempted to address it and give my perspective. And, that's all it is, my perspective on the use of word pictures.

:)

I hear you calc. Good point and yes we have 0 control of weather. I'm usually as upbeat as anyone and can stay optomistic longer than anyone through the slow starts to winter. However I never get excited with strong ninos, espeacilly the strongest arguably ever recorded. Anyway I followed my instincts and really went to town with the winter rye and my yard looks like a fairway. So eitheir way I was gonna win this winter and not have to look at brown ground. It will be eitheir lush green or white. The poor ski slopes are gonna be the big looses this year. Even if they score a couple big synoptic events, the NW flow that gives em the nickel and dime up slopes and more importantly sustained cold for snowmaking is non existent this year thanks to nino. I'll take cold and dry waiting on moisture any day over southern jet dominance.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Jon posted an article from Cohen.

 

Isn't sharing info and thoughts part of what this community is about?

 

Why all the negativity?

 

Here's another to do the Neil Young "it's only castles burning" thing:

 

https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/

 

Folks - this winter is not happening now. It won't.

 

But it will. In January.

 

In the meantime, enjoy Christmas, and please don't dump on the messenger or the message - please simply read the message and study it and if you disagree, post why.

 

I'm afraid that with no STORM ALERT we're all getting a little unnecessarily testy.

 

Let's chill.

 

Have a beer and enjoy ....

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Buffalo first time in 116 years with no snow. Robert put a cool pic up on Facebook showing a neighborhood this time last year compared to this one. Yards had like 7 feet of snow in them. This year green and looking like spring. The west is racking up in the mtns so atleast California will have some water after spring melt to fill reservoirs before the super Nina gets rolling. Cherish the rain and don't complain, ninas are hard on the lawn and gardens in the summer.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Jon posted an article from Cohen.

Isn't sharing info and thoughts part of what this community is about?

Why all the negativity?

Here's another to do the Neil Young "it's only castles burning" thing:

https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/

Folks - this winter is not happening now. It won't.

But it will. In January.

In the meantime, enjoy Christmas, and please don't dump on the messenger or the message - please simply read the message and study it and if you disagree, post why.

I'm afraid that with no STORM ALERT we're all getting a little unnecessarily testy.

Let's chill.

Have a beer and enjoy ....

Agreed! I can see where the angst is coming from, seeing the -PNA/+EPO which puts ridging in the east. But seems normal for mod/strong ninos's...weeklies look a little better week 4, start to see some lower heights in the southern plains and to the SE.

9828f65ca7172e4c725751693ce9be33.jpg

303113d765f30f4606ae66bc5fbb0e04.jpg

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

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Buffalo first time in 116 years with no snow. Robert put a cool pic up on Facebook showing a neighborhood this time last year compared to this one. Yards had like 7 feet of snow in them. This year green and looking like spring. The west is racking up in the mtns so atleast California will have some water after spring melt to fill reservoirs before the super Nina gets rolling. Cherish the rain and don't complain, ninas are hard on the lawn and gardens in the summer.

I just don't see how yards are green and looking like spring in Buffalo. I'm in Georgia and everything is ugly and brown and dead.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Any jabroni can hindcast. That the heck good is a new forecast tool if it only predicts the past?

It's essentially this:

Hey everybody, a high SAI leads to a high probablity of a -AO except when it doesn't. And I really can't tell you when it will or won't. But we'll know in March. Good luck!

Think I actually lol at the "Good Luck!" on the end. I'm going to bump all these neg Dec posts when I get my blizzard in February lol
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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Jon posted an article from Cohen.

 

Isn't sharing info and thoughts part of what this community is about?

 

Why all the negativity?

 

Here's another to do the Neil Young "it's only castles burning" thing:

 

https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/

 

Folks - this winter is not happening now. It won't.

 

But it will. In January.

 

In the meantime, enjoy Christmas, and please don't dump on the messenger or the message - please simply read the message and study it and if you disagree, post why.

 

I'm afraid that with no STORM ALERT we're all getting a little unnecessarily testy.

 

Let's chill.

 

Have a beer and enjoy ....

Haha I don't know what I started...but yeah, Cohen covers each scenario in that post which I don't think is a problem...people like black or white which isn't the case here. No one has seen an El Nino quite like this one, and no single person has a perfect composite of what will happen. I think his main point isn't really a secret and shouldn't get people upset...and that is that the PV needs to be disturbed or we won't get cold going deep south. That shouldn't be a surprise and is a relatively simple concept. We need SSW.

 

Agreed! I can see where the angst is coming from, seeing the -PNA/+EPO which puts ridging in the east. But seems normal for mod/strong ninos's...weeklies look a little better week 4, start to see some lower heights in the southern plains and to the SE.

 

Great post. The modeling is consistent with what we've thought all along...

 

We're in MJO phase 3 right now, headed to 4...All Ninos in Phase 3 for December look like this:

CVpwUmPUsAEUcEW.png

 

The writing is on the wall for the first 20 days of December and anything we can squeeze out towards the new year would certainly be a bonus, but JFM is largely unknown at this time and it appears to me everything is going as planned. Weeklies should adjust moving forward.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Think I actually lol at the "Good Luck!" on the end. I'm going to bump all these neg Dec posts when I get my blizzard in February lol

You'll get your blizzard before January. :)

It's way too early to be seriously negative on the winter as a whole. I'm about a week or so away from tossing December though.

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nomanslandva

nomanslandva

Posted
Posted

Jon posted an article from Cohen.

 

Isn't sharing info and thoughts part of what this community is about?

 

Why all the negativity?

 

Here's another to do the Neil Young "it's only castles burning" thing:

 

https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/

 

Folks - this winter is not happening now. It won't.

 

But it will. In January.

 

In the meantime, enjoy Christmas, and please don't dump on the messenger or the message - please simply read the message and study it and if you disagree, post why.

 

I'm afraid that with no STORM ALERT we're all getting a little unnecessarily testy.

 

Let's chill.

 

Have a beer and enjoy ....

Put the Christmas tree up yesterday and had many fruit flies to vacuum off the ceiling, am guessing it is because it is so warm.  I am actually enjoying the fact that I can pretty easily heat my home with wood so far and get some other things done.  I was sill cleaning up leaves here last weekend and Bradford pears still had some color.  Any wives tales for late leaf drop?  Looking at the free long range models, do see some hints at something better but they keep getting pushed farther out...big surprise.  

Point of quoting this post,  I am chilling and having that beer :santa:

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

Posted
Posted

Rain ? What's that ? It's been dry as a bone in Atlanta for weeks. So much for El Nino bringing a lot of rain. We might have a record dry December.

 

 

We are basically in a la nina-like pattern during one of the strongest el nino's in recorded history. Go figure!

 

Are you guys for real?

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

Posted
Posted

A 3 week stretch is a pretty long stretch, especially in an El Nino winter. That map doesn't show an excessive amount of rainfall in a large part of the southeast. Carolinas and NE GA looks wet, other than that the rest of the southeast doesn't look excessively wet since October.

000

AXUS42 KFFC 071110

MISATL

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INFORMATION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

610 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015

THROUGH 12/06/2015:

ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON AP RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL

TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT

RAINFALL VALUE FROM OF

NORMAL NORMAL

1 MONTH (LAST 30 DAYS) 3.67 4.22 -0.55 87%

2 MONTH (LAST 60 DAYS) 9.78 7.41 2.37 132%

3 MONTH (LAST 90 DAYS) 13.98 11.81 2.17 118%

6 MONTH (LAST 180 DAYS) 30.97 24.91 6.06 124%

1 YEAR (LAST 365 DAYS) 61.18 49.71 11.47 123%

2 YEARS (LAST 730 DAYS) 110.51 99.42 11.09 111%

3 YEARS (LAST 1095 DAYS) 175.59 149.13 26.46 118%

YEAR-TO-DATE COMPARED TO YEAR-TO-DATE NORM:

SINCE 1 JAN 56.02 46.64 9.38 120%

YEAR-TO-DATE COMPARED TO YEARLY NORM:

SINCE 1 JAN 56.02 49.71 6.31 113%

ATHENS BEN EPPS AP RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL

TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT

RAINFALL VALUE FROM OF

NORMAL NORMAL

1 MONTH (LAST 30 DAYS) 4.65 3.89 0.76 120%

2 MONTH (LAST 60 DAYS) 11.73 7.20 4.53 163%

3 MONTH (LAST 90 DAYS) 17.65 11.27 6.38 157%

6 MONTH (LAST 180 DAYS) 30.90 23.12 7.78 134%

1 YEAR (LAST 365 DAYS) 57.37 46.33 11.04 124%

2 YEARS (LAST 730 DAYS) 104.97 92.66 12.31 113%

3 YEARS (LAST 1095 DAYS) 164.06 138.99 25.07 118%

YEAR-TO-DATE COMPARED TO YEAR-TO-DATE NORM:

SINCE 1 JAN 52.86 43.36 9.50 122%

YEAR-TO-DATE COMPARED TO YEARLY NORM:

SINCE 1 JAN 52.86 46.33 6.53 114%

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

6z GFS continues the party with even a miller B thrown in for good measure.  all the usual caveats apply and we know we can't trust the long range but if you are looking for something other than a torch it makes for nice viewing and also doesn't put a nail in the December coffin.  Until 12z of course rolls in looking like cousin Eddie empty his toilet on the street saying "the s**** was full!"

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

6z GFS continues the party with even a miller B thrown in for good measure.  all the usual caveats apply and we know we can't trust the long range but if you are looking for something other than a torch it makes for nice viewing and also doesn't put a nail in the December coffin.  Until 12z of course rolls in looking like cousin Eddie empty his toilet on the street saying "the s**** was full!"

 

You're missing two *s.

 

Mods watch everything.

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