MichaelJ Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Bastardi said this AM that the Euro JFM newly issued forecast is very similar to Weatherbells. Don't think he is allowed to show it yet so I have nothing to show you here, just repeating what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Slowly getting there. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html Still a lot of hideously low height anomalies in Alaska. That usually doesn't teleconnect well for us in the SE. That said, if we are talking "baby steps", I guess it's better than what we have seen for the last couple of weeks. I am 41 years old and just hoping I don't look like this............. by the time the good pattern sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Slowly getting there. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html The Aleutian ridge is not a good feature. Fortunately, the Euro has it in a less robust state. That's a start. Also, it's good to see actual blocking in the NAO region (west areas) show up on all of the models. It looks transient, but it's still good to see it show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 MIDOKI FTW ! Heard it from a reliable $ource! This winter is about to be on and poppin'! Big dog is about to hunt Word to your mother 88' redux incoming It's gonna be the hap hap happiest Christmas since.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Bastardi said this AM that the Euro JFM newly issued forecast is very similar to Weatherbells. Don't think he is allowed to show it yet so I have nothing to show you here, just repeating what he said. It is in his daily commentary. January 20th and after is rocking. Has to be right 45 days out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The Aleutian ridge is not a good feature. Fortunately, the Euro has it in a less robust state. That's a start. Also, it's good to see actual blocking in the NAO region (west areas) show up on all of the models. It looks transient, but it's still good to see it show up. The EPS day 8-11 looks like it was trying to go to the NE pac low with trough in east but then quickly goes back to the aleutian ridge, AK low (-PNA/+EPO). If this was Jan 8th I would start to worry but until then just have to shrug your shoulders and enjoy the warmth this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 It is in his daily commentary. January 20th and after is rocking. Has to be right 45 days out, right? The 3 month EURO maps are not. The maps he shows there are for the 65-66 winter pattern evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The main takeaway from what the Euro shows is that we are taking steps in the right direction. Patterns don't typically change overnight, it's usually a process taking 10-20 days. The fact that we are seeing hints by the Euro of better changes around December 18-19th tells me that early January is when a new colder pattern should start to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 FWIW the Canadian Ensemble Control run at hour 360 is setting up a nice PNA ridge over the Western US by Christmas Eve with a weak trough beginning to develop over the central and eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 If we can actually get a -NAO at some point I think that will provide more opportunity for snow further south than a -EPO ever could. Seems like there is too much threading the needle with the -EPO anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Nice post from the Don - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3786729 "The very large and expansive polar vortex would argue that any drop to negative values could be short-lived. Since 1950, seven El Niño events featured AO+ conditions through the first 8 days of December followed by some negative values that developed between 12/9 and 12/15. There was one El Niño case (1951-52) that saw the AO remain positive throughout all of December. Among the seven cases in question, all saw AO+ values return for at least a time during the second half of December. The median number of days during which the AO was positive during the second half of December was 11. Those with more than 11 AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a positive AO average (Mean: +0.982; Range: +0.356 to +1.359). All of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -1.091; Range: -1.806 to -0.195). Those with 11 or fewer AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a negative AO figure (Mean: -0.879; Range: -2.066 to -0.148). Most of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -0.290; Range: -1.473 to +1.429). Cautiously, given sample size limitations, an above median number of AO+ days for the second half of December might suggest that sustained blocking could be delayed until late January or February. In contrast, the median number or below median number could favor earlier sustained blocking, with the greatest blocking focused on January." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 For those wondering like I was w/ regard to ENSO relationships and SSW, there is none. Also with regard to timing, frequency is obviously skewed in Jan and Feb months for SSW events, which I expected. This paper analyzes up to 2010 so relatively new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 12z GFS establishes a nice -NAO, but the -PNA won't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Nice post from the Don - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3786729 "The very large and expansive polar vortex would argue that any drop to negative values could be short-lived. Since 1950, seven El Niño events featured AO+ conditions through the first 8 days of December followed by some negative values that developed between 12/9 and 12/15. There was one El Niño case (1951-52) that saw the AO remain positive throughout all of December. Among the seven cases in question, all saw AO+ values return for at least a time during the second half of December. The median number of days during which the AO was positive during the second half of December was 11. Those with more than 11 AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a positive AO average (Mean: +0.982; Range: +0.356 to +1.359). All of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -1.091; Range: -1.806 to -0.195). Those with 11 or fewer AO+ days during the 12/16-31 period all saw January come out with a negative AO figure (Mean: -0.879; Range: -2.066 to -0.148). Most of those cases then saw February wind up with an AO- (Mean: -0.290; Range: -1.473 to +1.429). Cautiously, given sample size limitations, an above median number of AO+ days for the second half of December might suggest that sustained blocking could be delayed until late January or February. In contrast, the median number or below median number could favor earlier sustained blocking, with the greatest blocking focused on January." Yeah we should definitely be in the short lived -AO pool, on all the seasonal models February looked the best, so it's not too disheartening to hear. I would like to know the data involving all winters, not just El Nino and if the same correlation exists, that and does the correlation exist between la nina and neutral winters? Would be interesting to see this stuff graphed but I understand how frustrating data can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 12z GFS establishes a nice -NAO, but the -PNA won't budge. Xmas week looks better to this untrained eye...la la land but we would be happy with even close to that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Got to give JB credit....The TX panhandle is looking at another big winter storm this weekend and JB called that location as a sweet spot this winter. It's there 2nd big winter storm and it's only Dec 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The Euro long range is showing the PV weakening and elongating quite a bit by hour 240. I'm curious to see if the euro today holds to the idea of a nice PNA around the 18-20th timeframe like it showed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The Euro long range is showing the PV weakening and elongating quite a bit by hour 240. I'm curious to see if the euro today holds to the idea of a nice PNA around the 18-20th timeframe like it showed last night. GEFS showing strat more activity too. This would be the time things would start showing up, just need it to verify and get strong through end of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Got to give JB credit....The TX panhandle is looking at another big winter storm this weekend and JB called that location as a sweet spot this winter. It's there 2nd big winter storm and it's only Dec 8th. Well Beech Mountain has over 200 inches to go. Pretty sure the summitt seasonal avg is between 90-105 neighborhood if my memory serves me correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The euro doesnt look terrible by the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The euro doesnt look terrible by the end of its run. Agreed. Looks progressive...at least it's not a locked in awful pattern. Still needs work though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The euro doesnt look terrible by the end of its run. that sounds better than I thought. My interest lies with this new possibility of HP around Greenland. that alone would change the equation some for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Agreed. Looks progressive...at least it's not a locked in awful pattern. Still needs work though. I am grading on a massive curve, to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I am grading on a massive curve, to be fair. Haha! For this winter so far, that is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Well Beech Mountain has over 200 inches to go. Pretty sure the summitt seasonal avg is between 90-105 neighborhood if my memory serves me correct. 200 seems daunting when it's so warm out but wouldn't be surprised if that verifies come end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Xmas week looks better to this untrained eye...la la land but we would be happy with even close to that look The last great late '70's winter , 78-79 of which the entire nation was below average for winter, although no nino, featured a strong -nao and -pdo. However, the cold/snowy pattern didn't get going in the East until early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Got to give JB credit....The TX panhandle is looking at another big winter storm this weekend and JB called that location as a sweet spot this winter. It's there 2nd big winter storm and it's only Dec 8th. His 2nd bullseye of 200%, is going to take a miracle to occur! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 His 2nd bullseye of 200%, is going to take a miracle to occur! Not really , at least not for parts of my state . Would really only need a 5-6 inch storm to verify which we have received the last two winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 His 2nd bullseye of 200%, is going to take a miracle to occur! I'm in 100% of nothing - but that's far north FLA :~) Sonny_Cher_The_Beat_Goes_On.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 More improvement. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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