Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Legally not allowed to post it but if others will that's not my problem, it's available through weatherbell. Not the first time the euro control has given the SE a white Christmas this year. Btw - I know how rare white Christmas' are and the fact that the odds are 0.0001% for basically 99% of the US, so don't shoot the messenger folks! I'm trying some cognitive behavioral therapy before you all go on antidepressants... I think in order to qualify for a white Christmas there has to be 1" of snow on the ground right ? So, i'm sure if you don't go by that definition and you consider ANY snow on the ground a white christmas, then the odds are much higher of seeing a white christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Just read an article from Accuweather about winter and the Niño . It said the strength of the niño , could cause there to be a bigger lag in the pattern breakdown , and warmth could last through the whole winter! Start the Prozac drip, stat! Get ready mackerel - the Prozac will be needed for cabin fever come a few weeks (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Model wars for next week. Who will prevail, GFS or the Euro? I don't have Euro data, but GFS is calling for 3"+/- of rain Monday night into Tuesday. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING TIMING AND BOTH THE POSITION AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL LOW IT REACHES THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS THE LOW AS IT DIGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE EASTERLY TRACK WITH MUCH LESS IMPACT (LESS RAIN AND FASTER CLEARING) FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW ENSEMBLE ECMWF MEMBERS DO SUPPORT THE GFS SOLUTION...HOWEVER...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS BASED ON A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS MERGE OFF THE DELMARVA AND LIFT NORTHEAST. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOW TO MID 50S...POTENTIALLY COOLER DEPENDENT ON MORE RAPID ONSET AND DEPTH OF IN-SITU DAMMING. Looks like Euro is still king. It showed the low going OTS for most of its runs, with one exception being last night but it shifted back today to OTS with minimal impact. The 00z GFS trended towards that as well, euro has been pretty good like always. GFS is same old lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 6z GEFS says Dec un-cancel after the 15th...trying hard to take AO/NAO negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I like the way you talk! If the whole long wave pattern is about to be shaken up, there will be some super wild weather! Could be 75 one day and snow the next. Had a few events like this in the late 80s, 88/89 I think!?? The winter of 1989 was crazy. We had 80's in early Feb that year, followed by low temps in the low teens just over a week later. Later we had highs around 75 only to be followed by a serious ice storm 2-3 days later. Then it warmed up again, only to be followed by a minor snow event here in the upstate. This event was a major snowstorm along and east of I-95 in NC though, as they were close enough to be hit by the coastal low that formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 If the last few runs of the GEFS since it got upgraded are to be believed, we may see a changeover in the pattern by late December (Christmas maybe even?). Any other models supporting this idea? This should be an good test to see the accuracy of the GEFS post-upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 If the last few runs of the GEFS since it got upgraded are to be believed, we may see a changeover in the pattern by late December (Christmas maybe even?). Any other models supporting this idea? This should be an good test to see the accuracy of the GEFS post-upgrade. If its true we'll see it start to change by end of next week. Anyway enjoy the dry weekend cause I get the feeling next weekend is gonna be wet with fronts getting hung up off the SE coast. starting to look a little blocky in SE Canada. I'd bet the TN and Ohio valley will cash in first mid month as the pattern transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Legally not allowed to post it but if others will that's not my problem, it's available through weatherbell. Not the first time the euro control has given the SE a white Christmas this year. Btw - I know how rare white Christmas' are and the fact that the odds are 0.0001% for basically 99% of the US, so don't shoot the messenger folks! I'm trying some cognitive behavioral therapy before you all go on antidepressants... A bit of an exaggeration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 A bit of an exaggeration. you seriously couldn't tell? lighten up folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 you seriously couldn't tell? lighten up folks. I just wanted to post the real odds. I figured the .0000000000000001 was for show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 The Euro has the AO crashing around the 10th, NAO going Negative on the 11th, PNA Neutral on the 11th, and the EPO going Neutral on the 13th. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 The Euro has the AO crashing around the 10th, NAO going Negative on the 11th, PNA Neutral on the 11th, and the EPO going Neutral on the 13th. Interesting The GFS picked up on it as well, however the -AO on the Euro is definitely stronger (10 Day value). GEFS teleconnections agree was well, EPS not so much although we'll see what the 12z EPS mean says. GEPS hasn't caught on to it. The upgraded GEFS is impressive with the 500mb pattern/850mb temp at the end of the 06z run. "Best" run we've seen so far for that period. Day 10+ model data is frustrating because no one takes it seriously when you mention it, but a lot of pattern changes are picked up on long range data so people need to remember that. Now that I said that, holy monster block on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Gonna be a one shirt button winter! If things don't flip soon, it's gonna be a banana hammock kind of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Any progress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Looks like a D10 severe setup. I'll probably end up being a foggy day with temps in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I don't buy any change for the better currently. We have been here before. The ensembles will change next run. We stay wet and mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Bastardi morning tidbit comments: Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 12/4/15, 09:25 @BigJoeBastardi Perhaps this is the year that no winter for next 2 months in areas very warm since Oct, will work out. I dont agree tho Myself: Hoping for the best here but would not be surprised that the last 2 weeks of January is the time that really delivers some solid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Not as torchtastic on the weeks 3, 4 on CFS. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151203.NAsfcT.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 On to the Brazilian: Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 12/4/15, 10:50 Brazilian getting pretty adamant on centering major winter where we have it.00z run Atl(l)even colder pic.twitter.com/Idln3wIERP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 CFS As usual NC is the battle zone....might better take the weighted average blend and see how it plays out 30 Days 45 Days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 LOL, is that a March '83 repeat on the Brazilian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I'll take an NC battle zone in the 30 day. It's the 60-90 day where we want to jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 The 12z GFS is back to a more euro solution in the LR digging a massive trough in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 If your looking for hope from the 12z GEFS don't bother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 If your looking for hope from the 12z GEFS don't bother One takeaway is it at least goes to zonal flow near the end. That ridge is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Yesterday's 3"+/- rain for next Monday night/Tuesday has been reduced to a few hundredths, per RAH. Coastal low will be too far offshore to have a significant impact, it appears. WILL STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCEPOPS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Yesterday's 3"+/- rain for next Monday night/Tuesday has been reduced to a few hundredths, per RAH. Coastal low will be too far offshore to have a significant impact, it appears. WILL STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF. Euro wins again. Not much need to look at the GFS as its been consistently outperformed by the Euro when they've shown different solutions. Euro will be my model of choice this winter, GFS definitely needs some upgrading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 The problem is, the Euro has taken a beating the past couple of winters. So hopefully this year the EURO will stand true to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Yesterday's 3"+/- rain for next Monday night/Tuesday has been reduced to a few hundredths, per RAH. Coastal low will be too far offshore to have a significant impact, it appears. WILL STILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF. Imagine that!? As soon as we hit winter, storms/precip, start under performing ! SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 DECEMBER TORCH IS AT + 2.7 SO FAR FOR GREENSBORO AFTER 4 DAYS. HAD A +11 ON DAY 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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