weathertree4u
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Everything posted by weathertree4u
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I was thinking the same thing. I dont follow the stuff as closely as some in the forum but could tell yesterday early on that things in reality were not modeled correctly. Was a great air mass but could have used a little rain!
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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wow, looks great, lock it in. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just basing the "happier" comment off of the perceived rationalization that appears to have been taking place concerning the current/upcoming pattern and why it "should" work out to produce. Not saying that anyone ever actually said that, which was why I said perceived. Amazing how a couple of sentences can be contrived to being "on someonbody," respectfully of course. Perhaps an easier statement if one did not agree with my statement would have been to say nothing at all. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Winter '17/'18 is over fella's - even for you guys out East - sooner you can let it go allot happier you will be! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Things could get real interesting if we throw cold air into the moisture rich pattern we are stuck in. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yea, that cold snap was rough on things like the Southern Magnolia, noticed several with leaf burn; honestly, my attention is turning more to what seems to be an emerging pattern of heavy rain events every four or five days. I am guardedly hopeful for next Winter, I mean, one would think that statistically, eventually, we would get a winter that would feature a couple of good snow events. Take for example, the year after the awful season you referenced, 83' - 84'. That next winter had some good snows from roughly mid January to first half of February. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Didnt track it last year or this year but have to say that comparing the two winters, if we got no more snow this year, we would come out slightly, I mean slightly ahead of last year. The big difference this year was that two week period of cold, take that out and it has been a carbon copy of last except with more rain. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I certainly hope we do not get a pattern flip early March when everything is in the process of trying to bud out. What is most worrisome to me is that I have seen very few solutions of any model for the next ten days, give or take, that does not include several more inches of rain for the TN Valley region. Great if we can get some of that as snow but we need to seriously turn the tap off for a few days! -
Excellent point. The physics behind the models I know is way over my head, simply amazing that we can take an educated guess at it at all. Plus when you factor in the things that probably are not factored in like low solar and continued volcanic activity, heck, we might as well flip a coin!
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Which is generally why the weather is just so fascinating. Not sure whether we will ever develop the capability to forecast much better than we are now honestly!
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Have been seeing some brief mentions for next Winter for a El Nino Modoki, is this an indication of that as well and or what are your thoughts?
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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
All we can do is hope! I have to say though, seeing the very very wet pattern being consistently modelled is worrisome. -
Whole lot of thunder and lightening for February!
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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Interesting. I would suspect we would see more and more possibilities as the modeling incorporates changes occuring -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Interesting times; enjoy everyone's posts, so informative. Essentially, we could be seeing a change in the long range over the next couple of days? -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
There certainly was some cold showing on the CFS latest run but not sure how reliable that is but it is a change. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
That is money in the bank for those hot August days! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
All well and good but eventually shouldn't we see it in the modeling? -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sounds good. I am real close to pulling the spring lever! Good too see the rain for sure. Dismayed that seems like we all lament the models each year how they are struggling with what ever pattern is present. Is this a ongoing thing? Seems like each year it is the same. Cannot even imagine what it must have been like to forecast the weather when I was a kid, back in the 70's, perhaps was easier back then! -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018
weathertree4u replied to Cary_Snow95's topic in Southeastern States
What am I missing, do not really see any chances over the, well, for the rest of the season. Good that we are getting the rain though! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Still dont believe we are done with winter chances this year; on a positive note, we do need the rain, good to see it is coming! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Got to love the weather! It will for sure change and, likely, this time next year, it will be nothing like it is today, just like today is nothing like - thank goodness - last year! Baby steps, perhaps in a year or two we will actually have a Winter in the TN Valley! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yea but we all know that we will be glued to the model when the 12Z runs. One thing is for sure, the general TN Valley area is set up pretty good for the next few weeks. Cannot complain about the general pattern. We all may not cash in on all systems but statistically speaking, we all have a much better chance than we usually do at this time of year! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I will take that run in a heart beat! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
No worries, I am sure we will all be watching the model runs this week!
