weathertree4u
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Everything posted by weathertree4u
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Oh and post pictures!
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Pulling for you guys out east - nothing but a cold cold rain here north of Nashville
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December 8-10 Storm Discussion
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
So, will be interested in the 12Z suite of models. Looks like the Euro over-corrected too far north imo, seems like allot of the modeling is clustered around the KY/TN border east, just my untrained thoughts! -
December 8-10 Storm Discussion
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Will wait overnight for the Euro - after all - it is only early December and there are many more model runs between now and the end solution - look at the general patterns not the single model runs. -
December 8-10 Storm Discussion
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Get an error message could just be me... -
December 8-10 Storm Discussion
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yes, I would concur, the snowdome is safe and sound and they are expecting it to hold this year as well. Though, as we have alluded to, if modeling is still showing the same thing especially by Thursday at this time, then well, perhaps we might get a plowable snow. -
December 8-10 Storm Discussion
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Famous last words; they are historically overly conservative; guarantee that it will change by this time tomorrow. -
December 8-10 Storm Discussion
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Too soon to get excited but have to say that my experience with ULL is that they can pack a wallop -
December 2018 Pattern And Forecast Discussion
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
You saw those too! Some of them were pretty heavy hitters for the area, especially I-40 north. I would say the greater majority of them were showing at least something next weekend. -
Interesting, thanks for posting
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Well, yea, thanks for all the information. To throw a wrinkle in it, I may be deciding between two schools that direction, ETSU or ASU in Boone, may come down to which one reliably gets the most snow and not $ lol
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Considering a offer with ETSU - where would be the best location - best guess - to reside for winter weather? Totally not familiar with the area, in theory, with the added elevation, should at least have more chances for snow than currently do in the middle part of the state - just north of Nashville.
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I was thinking the same thing about Hugo, was in high school back then and can recall the huge impacts on the US - alarming is that there really are fewer and fewer escape options for Florence with each passing day. In addition, with each passing day, she inches closer and closer to that high octane water of the Gulf Stream. I honestly wonder if a projection of 145 is conservative?
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Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sounds great to me! Seems like we started with the heat right out of the gate this year and it has hung tough! -
Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Seems it was fairly localized; here north of town near White House, we have gotten hardly a drop the last few days. -
I was thinking the same thing. I dont follow the stuff as closely as some in the forum but could tell yesterday early on that things in reality were not modeled correctly. Was a great air mass but could have used a little rain!
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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wow, looks great, lock it in. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just basing the "happier" comment off of the perceived rationalization that appears to have been taking place concerning the current/upcoming pattern and why it "should" work out to produce. Not saying that anyone ever actually said that, which was why I said perceived. Amazing how a couple of sentences can be contrived to being "on someonbody," respectfully of course. Perhaps an easier statement if one did not agree with my statement would have been to say nothing at all. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Winter '17/'18 is over fella's - even for you guys out East - sooner you can let it go allot happier you will be! -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Things could get real interesting if we throw cold air into the moisture rich pattern we are stuck in. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yea, that cold snap was rough on things like the Southern Magnolia, noticed several with leaf burn; honestly, my attention is turning more to what seems to be an emerging pattern of heavy rain events every four or five days. I am guardedly hopeful for next Winter, I mean, one would think that statistically, eventually, we would get a winter that would feature a couple of good snow events. Take for example, the year after the awful season you referenced, 83' - 84'. That next winter had some good snows from roughly mid January to first half of February. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Didnt track it last year or this year but have to say that comparing the two winters, if we got no more snow this year, we would come out slightly, I mean slightly ahead of last year. The big difference this year was that two week period of cold, take that out and it has been a carbon copy of last except with more rain. -
Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread
weathertree4u replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I certainly hope we do not get a pattern flip early March when everything is in the process of trying to bud out. What is most worrisome to me is that I have seen very few solutions of any model for the next ten days, give or take, that does not include several more inches of rain for the TN Valley region. Great if we can get some of that as snow but we need to seriously turn the tap off for a few days! -
Excellent point. The physics behind the models I know is way over my head, simply amazing that we can take an educated guess at it at all. Plus when you factor in the things that probably are not factored in like low solar and continued volcanic activity, heck, we might as well flip a coin!
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Which is generally why the weather is just so fascinating. Not sure whether we will ever develop the capability to forecast much better than we are now honestly!
